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Messages - ODDS4STATS

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1
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 25, 2017, 12:32:07 PM »
Good day,

Took a (very shallow) look at the service and wanted to ask why softs are considered for closing odds. Skimming through these pages I see it has already been brought up.
Nonetheless, I'd rather ask again why is there an option at all, to consider closing odds of those books?
The question takes into consideration the following: A Marathonbet closing odd is meaningless and therefore irrelevant to any statistical analysis and predictions.
Would you consider that to be true?
All this is said because you are selling a service with a very-friendly interface(kudos) intended to save effort(kudos again), which can be quite misleading to some users( as in, a user will run some filters, look at percentages and arrive at conclusions).

Have you considered(would you find it useful?) to provide the functionality to run a set of matches results(any filter) against a basebook closing odds and the same set against a soft book afterwards(since you have the option) and the payout shown would be the difference of payouts between the two( so two bookie filters, base and soft)?
This would provide some measurement of bookies efficiency, rather then a predictor of outcomes(or what's left on the table).

Also, do you have any (at least vague) plans to expand the db to include other types of stats. One aspect would be the temporal, for example, something as simple as time of goal scored?
I understand( and have no clue  :D) what would you measure performance against, but maybe there is no need. One stat type can be run against another. (this, to my mind, is a short jump from what you have as I assume the same infrastructure can be used, though a proper db may hard to get by).
Then end result (stat against stat) could be a percentage, conveniently shown as odd( in various formats).
This could open a door to live-betting, where possibly more wiggle room is to be found.

This Qs may be a bit off of your main goals for the service, they are not meant with any negativity about what you offer.
Cheers

Hello,

Thanks for the thoughts, we're glad you're open to communication. Well, let's just say that the ODDS4STATS team did spend a lot of time to represent this database to the public.
About closing odds and Marathonbet, we know that the most accurate data is the closing odds, there is two things we are very concerned about at ODDS4STATS:

One of that is every match should be under 100% payout, not in arb situation, so there are no unrealistic odds among the data! So, even the Marathonbet is a soft, they can not give an abruptly different odds from the market (btw Marathonbet make mistakes with their opening odds)

The other one is that in many cases the given bookie does not give odds to every match (obviously this is not true for the top leagues);
Example, if Pinnacle does not give odds for a game in Argentine Primer League, then the data would be incomplete, but if we add data from another bookie then we have odds for the event.

Anyway, apart from this, it's a good idea to add a filter for soft and basebook odds, we will consider that. But you also need to know that because of this 100% payout this filter will not have a strong impact on the stats.

And yes, there is more in our pool than HT/FT and scorers minute, but such a development requires a lot of work, and if the market demand it then we will provide it :)

ODDS4STATS
2
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 25, 2017, 10:06:14 AM »
First of all thank you for you for your quick response and i wish you all the best (because i alrealdy see value and  with a few improvements it will be helpfull for the Pro bettor)

The improvements i can see helping me are:
Having a bookmaker filter,as a matter of fact,Pinnacle filter as every other bookmaker shapes their odds according Pinnacle(Pinnacle Lean)

The other one is having the openers,it might be a lot of work for your staff however there are a few crucial things that openers can show the Pro bettor and i will share one of the reasons,to compare the avg deviation between openers and closers and to see how much the league is exploitable,how much edge can i get if follow that league.The more the opening odds move in relation to closing odds the less efficient and therefore more exploitable and bigger edge can be acquired
And the openers are also crucial to another few things that i won t share at the moment.

Regarding your H2H mention i find wiith all due respect appalling that mention because its a very small sample size,so much circunstances that change over time and to be honest as a soccer enthusiast in soccer every game is shaped differently.Thats the only worry i m getting by your responses,i like the proactive approach,the explanations but i hate the references about huge small samples, thinks like h2h or Juventus,Liverpool and so on..i remember at least 3/4 stoppage time goals in 2012/2013 at home by Juve so if they weren t in all of the sudden your so called super sttaetgy goes down the drain.

To recap to test the market efficiency for a league yes,to find a subset of games in a niche league where the bookie might be making a mistake yes but Team strategy or H2H is ridiculous and i will mention the law of  The Law of Large Numbers (note LAW, even you can't argue with a LAW can you?) states that as the number of trials increases the ratio of successes to converges upon the expected ration of success.wll i think 50 matches (team strategy) or H2H 10 matches doesn t fit in that category

Anyway thank you and all the best,just trying to help and give an honest opinion,i might be wrong and i m open to discussion

Hello,

We are grateful for your constructive suggestions, we must think about Pinnacle opening odds, it's a great idea.
We are very open to these kinda discussions and suggestions.

About H2H:
This is the point where we certainly do not agree since there is a 3 points system, it is often best option to give 3 points to each other than play it as a draw ... This is  3 points mathematically instead of 2 points if they would play 2 draws, this is applied to some team pairs and for this, you don't need thousands of data against each other, the numbers never lies :)

Of course, this is not true for all team pairs, but its another advantage for bettors, as long as they know about this ...

ODDS4STATS
3
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 24, 2017, 01:26:25 PM »
Same for me. Good purpose, but when you want to exploit markets it cannot be open markets but small groups who take advantage of it.
You sell this service, but its ordinary "tipster" service which cannot be give value to the costumers. Ok, you can advertise your product by betting on Liverpool you will get 166% ROI!!! Every smart trader knows its bullshit
Im sorry mayby your goals were honest. But u have to ask yourself would you buy that service your own?I wouldnt  bash it down 100% . You can develop your databases better and mayby you will be good competirior to the Betradar or Betgenius

Hello,

Thanks for your comment.
We're glad you see that our goals are good with this service. We want to give an extra to the bettors by using the data and to make them use it well. The ODDS4STATS is a great help, which helps a lot to see clearly between leagues and teams. It's worth to say over and over again that misunderstood data can easily overwhelm inexperienced users and it takes the time to see data sets correctly. What we are delivering is a unique product, but we have to deal wisely with it, it's not a question, we help you in this as well!

The Liverpool is a great example, and as we've said before, high payouts are not sustainable in the long run and to bet against a team it can be a strategy as well.... And do not forget that in the marketing point of view the big teams and big payouts are the best advertising.

Thanks for mentioning with Betradar on the same page, but they are a big company with a big advantage :)


ODDS4STATS
4
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 24, 2017, 01:06:54 PM »
Agree with Malteja here.To apply a technical analysys you have to have a very big sample size and  obviously find a subset of games in a niche league(don t expect to beat he market in EPL or LA liga with this :D ;D)WHERE THE MARKET NOT THE BOOKIES is making mistakes,because if you take the closing odds they are shaped by the market sentiment exclusively.  Anyway for me my conclusion is -i have this information for free in  footballdata and i use it on a regular basis,however your service is more graphic and would save me same times a lot of work.i would buy it for 15-20 and if you complete the bookmakers filter.If you add Openers to the database then we enter in another game and suddenly your 49 is a bargain...

Hello,

Thanks for your thoughts.
That's right, we are looking for a mistake on bookmakers side by comparing the data for short and long term and we think that for reasons that you have mentioned (squad and coaches) it is not really worth filtering for more than 5-6 years, but there are exceptions such as H2H, in this case, it is worth to filter for longer period. Or another example if a strategy shows the same results over the 5 years it only strengthens the hypothesis. But it's important to know that 5 years is the time to look at, see the UEFA coefficient.

We are sure if you create analysis there is no other place where you can do it in such a depth, this is the gap what ODDS4STATS wanted to fill.
In your second post, you are saying that the opening odds would be good as well, then the database would be valuable for you. Obviously, this is your own strategy and part of your thoughts, but please specify why do you think this is necessary, maybe we can help (other users might be interested too).

You are right, it's not necessarily the EPL or La Liga has to be "beaten". There are lots of second and third leagues where there is a serious gap on the shield, it's better to look there.


ODDS4STATS
5
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:58:07 PM »
from the videos i saw i think its quite expensive for what it offers, need more work (more filters to play with).

I have scrapped from oddsportal and made a similar tool presented on one of those videos, i found out that for instance if you layed Braga (portuguese league) for the past 5 seasons (not counting the present one but i'm sure this season it would be profitable) you would get a nice profit (at least 20 units). There are definitely nice steady trends on the market, teams that the market/traders overrate a little bit.

Hi Harmonica,

Thanks for the thoughts!

Yes, we agree, still a lot of work to do, but we would like to point out that data analysis, strategy creation, and the year-to-year comparison of the database mean increasing knowledge for each user who uses the data year after year.
Because if we got data we got everything  :)

On the other hand, we congratulate you on finding your own strategy out of data analysis, indeed this is a great attitude, you will certainly learn a lot from it, you will learn even more when you analyzed 10 or 100 teams and you will see its characteristic's.

The mentioned Portugal League has ended, so let us give you an analysis of the season:

Highest payout at home in the current season: Portugal Primeira Liga

1. Maritimo Funchal 170,18% payout

2. CD Feirense 152,76% payout

3. Vitoria de Setubal 143,06% payout

The worst is LCD Nacional with only 29,41% payout. They have been relegated...

We recommend that you check the same teams for 3 and 5 years because such a high payout can’t be sustained in the long run!

Highest payout at away in the current season: Portugal Primeira Liga

1. Belenenses 186,00% payout


2. Vitoria Guimares 169,47% payout

3. CD Feirense 166,88% % payout


The worst is CD Tondela 18,59% payout.

We suggest that in this case as well to check the last 3 and 5 seasons.

The Primeira matches at home:

ROI at odds range 1.01-2.69 at home in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 205 so it’s the 66,99% of the games.
The payout is 100,74%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 898 so it’s the 64,28% of the games.
The payout is 100,63%

ROI at odds range 2.70-4.99 at home in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 57 so it’s the 18,62% of the games.
The payout is 98,88%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 296 so it’s the 21,18% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%

ROI at odds range 5.00-UP at home in the current season:

A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 44 so it’s the 14,37% of the games.
The payout is 93,07%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 296 so it’s the 21,18% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%

The conclusion is: The bookmakers calculating the Portugal Liga odds correctly.


The Primeira matches away:

ROI at odds range 1.01-2.69 away in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 72 so it’s the 23,52% of the games.
The payout is 96,26%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 380 so it’s the 27,39% of the games.
The payout is 96,92%

ROI at odds range 2.70-4.99 away in the current season.
A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 150 so it’s the 49,01% of the games.
The payout is 109,11%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 617 so it’s the 44,16% of the games.
The payout is 96,94%

ROI at odds range 5.00-UP away in the current season:

A total number of matches 306, matches in this odds range are 84 so it’s the 27,45% of the games.
The payout is 46,87%

Same filter for 5 years:
A total number of matches 1397, matches in this odds range are 400 so it’s the 28,36% of the games.
The payout is 98,45%


The Conclusion is: The results and the trend show that there is no significant difference between home and away teams if all matches are taken into account. ODDS4STATS does not propose to filter Portuguese Primeira League by odds.
But in any case, it is worth keeping in mind that some teams are able to make profits on the home field every year. Will it be so in 2017-18? Nothing can be guaranteed, but numbers provide great help.
Check out ODDS4STATS :)


ODDS4STATS
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ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: May 23, 2017, 03:04:40 PM »
It's pretty quite here. What's going on with Odds4Stats?

Hello Guys,

Thanks for your interest, the registrations and subscribers are growing steadily, and this is mainly due to the fact that we strive to share valuable trends with our users on a daily basis.

Currently, we are trying to evaluate user needs and as the result, the graph will be available within 1-2 days when you filter for a strategy. Important to note that with these graphs you will also see the records for your settings, such as:
Most winning or lost matches in a row, the maximum drawups and drawdowns and the current state, all these can significantly help users in calculating probabilities, see example here:

https://ibb.co/iTfdDF

In the near future, we will also make 1-2 very valuable improvements, which will make the filter process much more effective for users :)

Thank you for your attention!

ODDS4STATS
7
ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: April 22, 2017, 09:39:36 AM »
Team Monitor (Long Term):
ARG1 Estudiantes La Plata all home matches on any odds shows nice 111,95% payout in the last 5 seasons.
There will be a game on tomorrow evening:
Estudiantes La Plata - Huracan Del Paso
8
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: April 21, 2017, 12:21:51 PM »
Although I think Odds4Stats is a nice website for statistics, it doesn't make you a profitable gambler.

Also, I'm not sure why you put a feed in the left side of the screen with useless statistics:

Quote
League Filter (High Risk): NLD2 all 37 matches between home odds 4.00-10.00 for season 2016-2017 shows a crazy 174,05% Payout! There will be 2 games tonight: - Helmond Sports - NAC Breda - RKC Waalwijk - VVV Venlo
The way it's presented is misleading. It seems like it's a sure thing these bets will be profitable in the long run which is absolutely not true. I don't care about the fact that Helmond Sport did actually win that game but 174% payout isn't that 'crazy' in just 37 games after all. Especially if you realize that the 4-10 odds filter is a really strange one to apply and based on absolutely nothing.

Depending on the goal with Odds4Stats I can see the value of this website, but in it's current form I think it's just misleading for people who are naive and think they have a winning strategy which turned out to be just luck.


Hello,

Thanks for the comment.
We think that the ODDS4STATS database is for everyone, useful for professionals and for beginners as well.
With respect to the feed on the left-hand side, we are trying to put out thought-provoking tips in a variety of ways, because we expect, that this way everyone can find his/her own taste in the ODDS4STATS database.
We agree that for example this 174.05% payout can not be sustained in the long run, but here is a very important point to know: the exact characteristics of each league, and in this case, we can say that the NLD2 has many unexpected results both home and away, it's a fact.
This is the moment when we leave the statistics and we have to think about what can be predicted from the past. And, as we have said, this must be known precisely for each league. This way you can compare the data year by year and the leagues with each other.
Now, this task is related to the database, and as we said before, ODDS4STATS will provide such a help in the future! Keep visiting ODDS4STATS!

ODDS4STATS
9
ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: April 20, 2017, 12:30:16 PM »
Some of these examples you post. It is really what the average punter is looking for.

"This team has not lost a match at home = unbeatable"
"This team has lost their last 5 games -> it has to turn around at some point"

I am not saying that it is not possible to find value through your service (I haven't tried it). But the examples you are trying to sell make absolutely no sense when you are trying to sell your idea to experienced betters. We all know about variance for one thing, and that is all these examples with a small sample is - variance.

Hello,

Thank you for your comment.

In one hand you are right, we agree. We made our first how it works videos on odds4stats.com about simple strategies that anyone can understand. One of the reasons is that this approach to sports betting, where no matter things like injuries, starting eleven, offensive/defensive strategy, form of players etc., odds is the only that counts, so this approach is brand new on users' side (and the main way on bookmakers' side), this way we have to start talking about this from the basics. The other reason is that we would like to teach people to use Value Miner step by step and show them how to create their own strategies.

On the other hand: Most of tipsters or tipster sites give you tips with no explanation what you can learn from. We have successful and satisfied tipsters among our users who dug deeper and found really good strategies. They sell their tips by these strategies.

You mentioned that you haven't tried our service. Please try it, it's free, and also follow our Strategy Tips on odds4stats.com and find nice payouts and sum profits as the other tipsters.

By the way, we will dig deeper and share it with users step by step.

ODDS4STATS
10
ODDS4STATS / Re: ODDS4STATS Fundamentals
« on: April 19, 2017, 11:33:34 AM »
Team Monitor:
MAR1 Ittihad Tanger When they were the favorite at home with odds between 1.01-2.69 in the last two years.
The payout is: 136,90%

There is a game tonight:

Ittihad Tanger - Olympique Safi
11
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: April 18, 2017, 04:22:47 PM »
I will not reply, thank you very much for your attitude! Arbusers a few months ago has been prompted the market will have new value software, I just complained that in the long wait, but in the end was very disappointed!
For arbusers, I am very grateful! Have learned a lot in the forum!
For O4S, your service is very good, just software, I do not see any valuable things!


Thank you for the positive reaction and the explanation, we also think the forum is a good way to communicate.
Response to the professional part:
In our statistical database there is no game which would be an arb, we carefully checked that. It is very important for us to give our users clean (no arb) data for creating strategies.
ODDS4STATS gives you a really simple way to search for very good strategies, and as we are sure you already know it is not an arb software.
We believe that giving a really simple application for creating strategies is a very big help, and believably or not the creator of ODDS4STATS also did arbing for 7-8 years, Arbusers can confirm that :)
Now this is something different, something new. It's a trend with increasing knowledge year by year, bookmakers have to prepare even harder than against arbing.
Of course there is no guarantee You can produce the same figures in the future, but it is a very strong prevail.
In practice, the same thing happens like in the stock market,
preparing portfolios and strategies, which will be analyzed every year. It certainly works. Another important thing, if anyone who acquires this knowledge, will have a unique intellectual property, which is also worth to note.
We are sure that we will open the eyes of many thoughtful people in a few months, and if this occurs you will not need to apologize. We are pleased to see your thoughts more clearly, and explained your opinion in detail. Thanks again!

ODDS4STATS
12
ODDS4STATS / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: April 17, 2017, 06:59:46 PM »
Dear mate, hi again,

We are not sure what your real goal is with this kind of responses, but we try to help you again.

Firstly you should know that the couple of minutes you spent on odds4stats.com right before you asked us to refund your subscription is not enough at all to be a pro and to make profit as well. This is the reason why we usually say, being a successful bettor/tipster/gambler, you know that your effort is rewarded.

By the way anyone can try ODDS4STATS for free, no subscription or registration needed. This is the first help we give users before making a decision to sign up or subscribe.

As per your questions:

1. Please, let us know your concrete needs or anyone else's one you know about.

2. We are not sure what you think about, please explain it.

3. You can make money by using Value Miner on the proper way, as lots of other users do. After finding really good payouts and sum profits, use these strategies and make your bets on sports betting sites. The strategies by themselves will not make you any profit but the bets you make. You can win the lottery only if you buy one.

So, ODDS4STATS has nothing to do with concrete bets but gives you excellent strategies to use in sports betting. Certainly you have to create your own strategies by learning. We help you several ways:
- watch our How It Works videos firstly to understand what ODDS4STATS is about, and how to use Value Miner
- follow our Strategy Tips, you will find really good tips and strategies. Test them in Value Miner and also on sports betting websites
- read FAQ if needed
- ask us as you do.

You should know that our team and lots of our users also use Value Miner and ODDS4STATS for making strategies and for using them to make profit with bets. We and they are more than satisfied...


Please write us those Asian software you mentioned, we will check them, but again, ODDS4STATS has nothing to do with automated bets or concrete bets at all. We give you very good strategies if you receive them and if you are willing to learn of them.

Additionally:

We tried to find your other comments in several forum topics to know your needs or your sports betting activity better, but we couldn't find any more comment than these two pieces. Please help us how and where we can know your sports betting activity and your needs better.

Also, please, answer our questions on a constructive way for giving you the proper response.
13
ODDS4STATS / Re: O4S Fundamentals
« on: April 14, 2017, 08:28:02 AM »
Team monitor:

ARG3 Acassuso couldn't win last 9 home games in 1.01-2.69 odds range!

Most game what they couldn't win in a row at home was 4 since Value Miner collects data (2013) .

There will be 1 game tonight: Acasusso - Deportivo Espanol
14
ODDS4STATS / Re: O4S Fundamentals
« on: April 14, 2017, 08:25:35 AM »

League Filter (High Risk):

NLD2 all 37 matches between home odds 4.00-10.00 for season 2016-2017 shows a crazy 174,05% Payout!

There will be 2 games tonight:

Helmond Sports - NAC Breda
RKC Waalwijk - VVV Venlo
15
ODDS4STATS / Re: Fundamentals
« on: April 12, 2017, 03:58:28 PM »
Team Monitor (Long Term):

CYP1 Omonia Nicosia as the favorite at home in 1.01-2.69 odds range in the last 5 season shows nice 117,58% payout.

We are happy to read your thoughts about this!
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