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Messages - NedlogViiibes

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1
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« on: December 25, 2017, 04:24:20 PM »
@alexkok

Pinnacle pays a lot of fees when you deposit/withdraw, so you have to rollover the deposit a few times. 3x rollover requirement should be rather easy to clear. You should always have money in Pinnacle anyway.
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Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« on: December 25, 2017, 12:29:24 PM »
Money line odds shoudnt be dependant/related with spread i cant speak 100% for nba it is very sharp and interesting market but general rule is that ML,O/U and spreads should be all viewed as separate things which they are.

Hawks have worst record in league but keep most games fairly close..suns/magic are getting blown a lot.Does that mean that mean Hawks should have been shorter this season,well def no according to their record

This is not correct. It is correlated.

An extreme example:
Team A will score 3 points every time Team B scores 2 points in the long run. If we are expecting 20 points total in this match, then variance will play a bigger factor, than if we are expecting 200 points. The spread will be much wider when we are expecting more points, and the odds on the fave will be much smaller.

Also you are taking a really small sample size from Hawks as an argument to your point.
3
My opinion. I would definitely be extra careful to do it. (just start with SMALL money in the beginning), and yes it could work (perhaps not with all bookies).

Good luck!

It won't work. Stop giving terrible advice.. Someone might actually listen.
4
Bookies discussion / Re: Bet365 and VPN
« on: December 12, 2017, 07:29:15 PM »
sad to hear.

instead, I would suggest choosing a bookie with Similar odds such as 10Bet, NetBet, 1xBet, redbet. Not 100% the same odds but pretty similar.

Good luck.

Terrible advice. Following your logic, then every soft book has "pretty similar" odds to bet365. The difference here is that Bet365 is actually a good bookmaker...

And please don't recommend 1xbet again. It just proves you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.
5
A deposit-only book, with 20% arbs in its own lines - you don't even need other books for arbing. No withdrawal option, but that's not a problem as you could easily "transfer" your balance to other books when it grows, what can go wrong?

At least you wont have to deal with limits :)
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Arbing and trading talk / Re: pinnacle closing odds
« on: December 03, 2017, 06:32:51 PM »
http://www.oddsportal.com/ shows you the opening odds (the first odds they tracked) from each bookmaker.
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Value betting / Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« on: November 27, 2017, 12:33:56 PM »
Some of the important stats are these:

Win Rate: This is a very important statistic and each of us must pay close attention to it. Normally, I pay attention to these statistics when the tipster has a minimum of 100 tips, the bigger the history is, the more accurate this statistic is if I find a verified tipster with a win rate over 57% and a history of 500 + tips it will be very hard to find something to deny me from subscribing him.

Average stake: Another very important parameter here again as with the previous criteria, the larger history of bets, the more accurate the statistics will be. On the average stake, I can predict if the tipster fits into my profile, if he always stakes with the max stake, I need to know what will happen if he enters a big drawdown. Also, if he performs very well, but always stays at least, I can try to get some leverage into my bets, we will talk about this strategy in the next few weeks.

Performance up to date: What this means, I will look carefully at the results of my chosen tipster for this year's and last year. If last year he performed well and so far this year is about 0 and there is no change in his strategy that has the edge this may be a great opportunity to subscribe to it.

Winrate: I can easily give you a winrate of over 57% without providing profitable picks. Useless stat to look at to determine how good a tipster is.

Average stake: Also a useless stat to determine how good a tipster is. Some tipsters however can be seen manipulating their stats with different staking -> have a good run with high stakes in the beginning and then lower the stakes to keep a high yield. So I wouldn't red flag a tipster simply because he uses flat stakes/max stakes. There is much more transparency in a tipster using flat stakes imo,

Performance to date: I don't really know what you mean. Because he made money last year, and this year is still even, then because we assume he is a winning tipster, then we should jump in as variance is bound to kick back? How do we know that the first year wasn't due to variance?

I think you look at all the wrong stats here to determine whether a tipster is good or not. Read the thread again - the answer is right in front of you.
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Value betting / Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« on: November 25, 2017, 12:58:57 PM »
Ned:
It may well be that I cannot sustain the current yield, but how can you just out of the blue claim it's not possible ?

I've been in this industry for 30 years, and started proofing mainly to further discipline my own betting, not to have as many subscribers as possible at expense of their results following.

If you think that you can beat the closing odds from Pinnacle/SBO (your recommended picks are same as closing prices on average) by ~17%, then you do not know anything about betting at all.

I just checked your first post on this forum, which was 3 years ago:

Im quite new to this but from what I understand, you arb and get the same profit on any outcome.

30 years in the industry, and at year 27 you still don't know what arbing is. Shouldn't we only talk about how many years you've been in this industry while making money?
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Value betting / Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« on: November 24, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »
Had a feeling something was off with the numbers etc. This is an automatic red flag:
He may also have relatively few ( like me ), and closing lines are on average the same as recommendation price.

I do however find the statement rather odd, as this guy has to be beating the closing lines quite a bit if he is taking odds from soft books (and odds that doesn't even exist)...

I would always be cautious with sites like this one. There is usually no way to know if the results are accurate, or if losing bets has been removed etc.
10
Value betting / Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« on: November 23, 2017, 10:16:57 PM »
Indeed, it may sound that way.
But since you didn't look it up I have to tell you - 17 % yield from more than 800 picks, mainly 1X2

Nope, you didn't have to tell me - you were just looking for an excuse to promote yourself :)

If you do not beat the closing odds on average, then you do not have an edge. The bigger the market, the more evidence we have for this. It is really that simple.

17% roi is obviously good from 800 picks - but it is not sustainable, so stop fooling yourself and others. What you really should keep track of is how much you beat the closing odds on average - that way we would actually get a good picture of your skills.

For the question at hand: How to evaluate a tipster? I would take a look at the arguments presented by the tipster for the picks. This is where you can tell if someone actually might have an edge. If they are doing well against the closing odds and presents some solid arguments, then you probably have found a good tipster.
11
Value betting / Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« on: November 23, 2017, 07:48:54 PM »

Hi, I am the Pro Footy tipster at Bettinggods

The comparison to closing lines may of course be a prominent factor on whether to follow a tipster or not, but still not suitable for judging a tipsters performance.
Depends a lot on how quickly you can get on.
A well performing tipster may have so many subscribers that closing lines will be heavily affected. He may also have relatively few ( like me ), and closing lines are on average the same as recommendation price.
Then again, in soccer there is a big difference if the bets are from liquid markets / big leagues, or smaller markets / leagues.

Btw - I totally agree with the modification above on win rate. If your staking is right, the difference of betting 1.25 or 5 is mainly about patience and psychology.
With my low win rate I have learnt a lesson on how impatient subscribers are, so I took action :)

Sounds like you do not have an edge then :)
12
Value betting / Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:50:52 PM »
One of them, a specialist in top football leagues, started working for a large Asian syndicate.They pay him big money on pint/profit.

That's a pretty common setup now - it needs even tiny profit margins and there's really good money to be made there. eg 200 bets per month at 1%, 25k stake, nets 50k profit a month average. Insane liquidity available there.

I'd say a syndicate that doesn't work on slim profit margins is a bad syndicate.
13
Value betting / Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« on: October 19, 2017, 11:17:05 AM »
When u  know math. If u have edge 0.1%, there could be huge swings. But edge with 5%+ or 10% u basically dont have any variance

You should read up on your math :)
14
So basically every single time you place a bet on the big leagues in football you make 27% in profits. Even greater numbers in other sports. Add to that you never make a mistake, unless something extraordinary happens... I'll stop wasting my time :)
15
Thanks for clearing that up :) What is your actual roi then Yasio? Return pr bet.

There are some things that doesn't add up in my head though..
Based on my experience, I categorically declare that the basis of long-term winnings in betting is to find value in the prices offered by bookmakers.But this task is not simple and easy.

Obviously - and the process is not simple and easy. Therefor I find the next statement rather odd:

In 2015 I found a way to extract and exploit value in sharp bookmakers and top leagues.I use a few simple and free internet tools.

Sounds rather simple and easy to me. To be able to beat the market in so many different sports you would need to either follow good tipsters (there was a discussion earlier about how difficult this task can be) or use data to model the games. It is impossible to have an edge on so many big markets without the use of data imo. Finding the right data is not easy and can be rather costly.

-In 95% of all games I beat the closing line.Cases where I fail are last-minute changes.change in expected squad, change in weather conditions and other extraordinary events.

So basically you always make a good bet. The circumstances you are talking about is all variance and goes both ways. Impressive.

Whenever someone comes off with an impression, that it is "easy" to beat the big markets on Pinnacle, then I can't put it aside. It is not easy to have an edge on these markets. Definitely not to have an edge on basically all of the big sports/markets out there.

I personally believe you can have an edge on these markets though. Some don't. The closing odds on Pinnacle reflects the true probability of an outcome to happen on the big markets on average. These probabilities can be figured out through mathematics and modelling, but for this to be possible you would need the right data and use it correctly.
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