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Messages - NedlogViiibes

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1
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Can bookie limit bets legally?
« on: June 20, 2017, 06:03:37 PM »
Discrimination laws usually refer to race, color of skin, national or ethnic relations or sexual orientation. I don't see a problem here.

They might have a problem with marketing laws though, I think. But if it really got to court issues, then they could simply write with a small print in the bottom "if you prove to win too much, you might get limits to your account".
2
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding Bets to lose on
« on: June 20, 2017, 05:41:49 PM »
you would use Pinnacle(or a soft bookie of your choosing that offers the best multi combination)

Multi 2) A,D -> how would you make this bet?
Multi 4) B,C -> how would you make this bet?

Ahh alright. So you would need to use 4 different bookmakers.

Although statistically speaking if you use this method, the money will generally end up where you want it.

No.
3
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding Bets to lose on
« on: June 19, 2017, 09:35:09 PM »
Another good way is to find 2 arbs and they don't need to be at the 3-4 hour differnce, they just need to be between the same bookmaker.

MATCH 1) = Federer vs Nadal
MATCH 2) = Murray vs Djokovic

A) = Federer
B) = Murray
C) = Nadal
D) = Djokovic

Multi 1) A,B
Multi 2) A,D
Multi 3) C,D
Multi 4) B,C

Then its essentially a 4 way arb.
If you have 3 matches, then its a 8 way arb.

This is the best way I've found and you can easily use this technique to transfer money.
The bookmakers will be very happy with you and probably give you free pizzas and bonuses.
This is an alternative way than using ewallets.

Just ensure that if you do go with Tennis, that the same rule applies.

If the goal is to transfer money from one book to another, then read this post again:

OP: forget about this idea. There's no mathematical foundation to justify any way to do something like this properly. Like Max pointed out if you could find losers, then you could as well find winners and make easy money. So actually by arbing-out you'll just be plain gambling and risking to end up with much more money in the book where you want to lose... probably because you're having a hard time to withdraw. My advice would be to fight for that withdrawal by all possible means.

Also for your example. How do you make that work?

MATCH 1) = Federer vs Nadal
        Bet365: Odds 2 vs Pinnacle odds 2

MATCH 2) = Murray vs Djokovic
        Bet365: Odds 2 vs Pinnacle odds 2

A) = Federer
B) = Murray
C) = Nadal
D) = Djokovic

Multi 1) A,B -> odds 4 on Bet365
Multi 2) A,D -> how would you make this bet?
Multi 3) C,D -> odds 4 on Pinnacle
Multi 4) B,C -> how would you make this bet?
4
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 19, 2017, 12:11:52 AM »
Thanks for the input maletaja

Good point with Kyrgios/Paire/etc kind of players. They are hard to figure out, as they sometimes lose their heads. You need to take some more things into consideration here -> more variables -> harder for everyone. Is this a bad thing?

For your point with 1st round matches being easier to find value. Well I don't know if this is correct. I don't know how many good "tennis syndicates" there are. But I have an idea, that the lines get effective as soon as these syndicates place their bets (on average). I also think they get a chance to analyse most matches on both tours.

With your Kontaveit example, then I still haven't created any model yet (not going to have any time soon), but it would be an interesting spot to analyse deeper to see, if you really had a value bet. Minus value sometimes wins as well :)

I actually think that the big servers are the matches, where a model like this would be really helpful. Earlier in this thread I pointed out that odds on over 26 games was 1.74 just one hour before the start of the Muller-Karlovic match. Closing odds was 1.66. Margin here was 2.5%, so if you had bet one hour before gametime (1.74), you were sitting with an EV of 2.35% (if we assume the closing price was the right price). Not bad imo. This was a final between 2 big servers btw. So is it possible to find good spots in these matches as well?

Someone has to be the one getting the money from anything - live/pre/whatever. If you are good enough, why should it not be you?
5
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 04:15:57 PM »
Im glad i used example of Karlovic-Muller match, which proven too be truly very sharp line as i said.It ended 7:6 7:6

to quote you Nedlog Viibes":
"1 hour before the match you could get 1.74 on that over 26 bet (it ended in 1.66). If we assume 1.66 was the correct odds, then we would win approximately 2.35% in the long run from a bet on 1.74. I don't know what the limit was at the time, but 1 hour before the match I suspect it to be rather high."

From my perspective it had no point point taking 26.0. 25,5 at about 1,70 odds at least would make sense to me as last value line, as it was decent chance we see two tie breaks.

If 1.70 was the last spot with value for over 25.5, then you would give it 100/1.70 = 58.8% chance of happening. This means there would be 100-58.8=41.2% chance of under 25.5 games.

Under 25.5 games was 2.95 on the closing odds, which means you were sitting with a valuebet of 41.2*2.95 = 121.54.

I haven't had the time to test anything yet, and I did not watch the Tomic match. The word "should" kind of stands out though in your sentence. He might have been the favorite to win in 2 sets, but there obviously was a chance for Robert to take a set as well. A model imo gives you a more "unbiased" look at things.
6
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 03:05:51 PM »
Thanks for your input Samael.

"Now example of very sharp line today is Karlovic-Muller match.Even average guy knows that we are set to see tie breaks here with logical bet over games.Pinnacle at the moment has that set at over 26.0 1.67 meaning you will need three sets to land this,and with bad odds=zero value.If every match is this accurate we would be in big problems and thankfully they are not."

1 hour before the match you could get 1.74 on that over 26 bet (it ended in 1.66). If we assume 1.66 was the correct odds, then we would win approximately 2.35% in the long run from a bet on 1.74. I don't know what the limit was at the time, but 1 hour before the match I suspect it to be rather high.

"I get far from the topic sorry.Regarding stats this can be useful but can be dangerous to follow them blindly,
There isnt just serve hold percentage,first serve % etc - there is more things like break stats(from conversion to saving break points) % percentage of points won on 2nd serve can be crucial as well and it is very hard to come up with accurate data as players change tournaments,surface and their percentages also vary troughout the season.Too small sample size can also trick you badly"


I agree that you should not follow models blindly. But the rest of the above I do not agree with.

A model like this would treat the players like robots, so you would only need 1st serve in%, 1st serve win% and 2nd serve win% to create a model. The problem here is that we are dealing with humans, but I still think it is way better to see the players like robots to get a picture than having no picture at all.

Sample size should not be a problem here either.

I do not think this is the holy grail. But I think I will get a better understanding of how prices are set by the market/sharp books. Kind of like expected goals models in football.
7
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 11:01:53 AM »
I mean bookies buy statistic from betradar which is quite accurate. Adding killing spread makes is more difficult to beat.

I want to beat sharps as this is where the real money is. I would be wasting my time, if the goal was to be able to beat soft bookmakers. You also seem to think that bookmakers do not make mistakes - then none of us would be able to make money :)

Do I think it is the holy grail in tennis betting? No. But I think it will allow me to make better decisions -> less bad decisions.
8
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 12:25:20 AM »
I have a question regarding tennis betting. Is it possible to predict the chance of each score happening in a tennis match/set, if you know how often the player will win points on own serve?

Lets say player A will get first serve in 65% of time. She will win it 60% of the time and 2nd serve will win 45% of the time.

Players B will get first serve in 65%, 1st serve win 70%, 2nd serve win 50%.

Is there any way through math to predict the different percentages of the possible outcomes of this set/match?

if you assume points throughout the match are independent, tennis match can be described with a Markov chain. so, yes there is an exact formula for the chance of player A winning a match against player B while knowing only how often each player wins a point on his serve. I'm doing some research on tennis betting and I calculated it for 3 variants: best of 3 with 3rd set only going until the tie-break, best of 5 with 5th set going until the tie-break and best of 5 with 5th set not having a tie-break (like grand slam matches).

but formulas in question are pretty damn huge and it would take you something like 10 minutes of typing to calculate the probabilities, so the only feasible way of using them is by programming it in some language.

Thanks for your answer! :)

Some advanced stuff. Will be interesting to dig deeper!

@Maletaja

Not really sure I understand you. If you think the books are spot on with their lines 100% of the time, then there would be no point betting at all.
9
Newbie's questions / Math in tennis betting
« on: June 17, 2017, 09:12:35 AM »
I have a question regarding tennis betting. Is it possible to predict the chance of each score happening in a tennis match/set, if you know how often the player will win points on own serve?

Lets say player A will get first serve in 65% of time. She will win it 60% of the time and 2nd serve will win 45% of the time.

Players B will get first serve in 65%, 1st serve win 70%, 2nd serve win 50%.

Is there any way through math to predict the different percentages of the possible outcomes of this set/match?
10
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 05, 2017, 08:50:48 AM »
"That makes alot of sense, because I've used two different software that can access statistical information via databases.
-> https://odds4stats.com
-> betegy
When I ran models, most of the time it was
"

I just found out softwares like this are used. Thanks - it really is easy to make money these days.

"1.45 that had greater chance of profit, but in minor situations.
In most situations 1.75 was either (more safe, had greater or less profit) depending on the outcomes.
"

The odds on the soft side doesn't matter. Read the thread again. Figure out what it is with the Pinnacle lines that is so special.

"When I moved the odds the other way, it was generally 3.00 that was safe but in some situations $7-11 was the better cut off."

Don't you see how random this statement is?

"Currently I've got about 10 Value bets
At about 60% win with winning odds between $1.90-$3 at 41% ROI
"

Good start and good luck. Do yourself the favor and read the thread again. And again.
11
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 04, 2017, 03:09:04 PM »
I actually think you should forget about the closing odds and follow the guidelines Alfa wrote in one of his posts. If you follow that, you should be doing well.
12
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 04, 2017, 03:06:11 PM »
Actually my bad, I thought about this more, if you have already taken the soft price, its too late to parlay arb.
As you have already placed the bet.

Your only option would be to arb out at a loss.
I guess if your value bets deviated (to non value) and your stake was $100+ then losing 1-2% is better than losing 100%

I guess if you dont cover these deviated bets, you would need experience to know what percentage of these (soft arbs that deviated, ending up winning/losing) and how that affected your bottom line.

You obviously won't lose 100%.

Earlier in the thread I told you how to calculate valuebets.

Lets say you took odds 1.90 on soft. As it turns out the Pinnacle price ends in 1.96.

1.96*1.02 = 2.00

1.90/2.00*100 = 95    -> we'll lose 5% on the initial bet.

If we bet the opposite outcome on Pinnacle just before start of game, then we would lose an additional 2% on this bet.


Everything is in this thread :)
13
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 04, 2017, 12:28:29 PM »
On average: Every time you bet with Pinnacle on their closing lines, you will lose 2% of your stake. This thread should tell you why.

So is it a good idea to sell out on a valuebet, that turns out not to be a valuebet anyway?

I still haven't figured out what a parlay arb (even if possible) would do of good things in this case, but I'll leave that.
14
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 03, 2017, 08:18:46 AM »
With rules, what do you generally make based on experience or statistical data?

I'm thinking greater than 2.50 is too high too be a value bet.
(I dont have any historical data to see what kind of ROI value bets will provide between ($2.0 to $5 on at least 1000 bets))

Under than 1.90 is too less to be a value bet
Or should it be no less than $2, to ensure you make a profit.

Why should odds 2.50 or greater be too high to be a valuebet?

If you got odds 2.50 on a coin hitting heads or tails, would you not take the bet?

What about if you got odds 3.00?

The odds (on the soft side) does not indicate the probability of something happening.
15
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: June 02, 2017, 10:03:50 AM »
We can both come up with a lot of examples. One of the biggest matches lately between Huddersfield and Reading. Odds on Huddserfield started in ~2.57, went down to 2.22 (maybe lower) ended in 2.35. Mind you - this was not due to injuries, news or anything. This was simply the market finding the right price.

@Arbusers

Read through the link, but I don't see the discussion at hand answered.

This post from Skaggerak sums up the issues here:

"I started experimenting at the beginning of this season and am pretty much back where I started. I began using any exchange with good liquidity or sbo/pin as a reference point and then taking any outlier odds.
This hasn't had great results because even value-betting on the "weak" side of 4-10% arbs can prove unprofitable when the event or sport in question is not a major one and has little liquidity. Some of these are practically palps but the events in question seem to be very uncertain even on the "sharp" side as there is not enough money in the market to define the accurate representation of value, as others have said before it's quite difficult to define the weak or valuable side when the sport/event is not a major one.
I've been barely taking bets under a 3% threshold so thought I would yield some positive results regardless but I was obviously naive. Value-betting is a whole other area that I think requires different skills, it's probable that it has also become more difficult as the whole landscape of the industry changes to a more efficient model for the big companies"

Our goal should be to only make profitable bets. We can't be sure about the profitability in small markets or markets where the liquidity is still poor.

I agree that you will be profitable if you take the soft side of an arb with Pinnacle. I just think there are spots where we should leave the bet alone, as we don't have enough evidence on the bet being a profitable one.
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