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Messages - NedlogViiibes

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1
Newbie's questions / Re: how to deal with void bets
« on: August 07, 2017, 04:37:54 PM »
Normally yes. If not, you are gambling. That's ok too if you think your running bet has value. But if that's the case you should be able find another bet to cover the opposite result (either another arb or a small loss). If you don't find and arb or a small loss, then your bet probably has no value and it makes no sense to let it alone.

Shouldn't we only talk about the risk we are willing to take here?

If you can't find an arb or a small loss, then yes - your bet probably don't hold value. But making another bet with minus value doesn't help that.
2
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Limited due to Responsible Gaming?
« on: August 03, 2017, 01:23:50 PM »
Guys i have to say that this kind of limits,sometimes without reason,may destroy eurobooks as more and more people will move to asians.We live in 2017, information on internet is everywhere,almost a big mass of people have gone to asians.Eurobooks should be more loose with their customers,or else they will lose even more people.

Most people do not experience limits. I reckon ~98% of betters has never had an issue with personal limits.
3
If you can walk out a stadium on your own two legs,
then you can hit a tennis ball.

Pretty dumb statement tbh.

But if you lost money due to a retirement, then it'll even out in the long run, so don't worry too much about it.
4
Value betting / Re: Some ways to do bets with value betting strategy
« on: July 03, 2017, 11:28:59 PM »
5
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: July 02, 2017, 11:38:52 AM »
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

How much did you beat the Pinnacle closing lines?

Good job :)
6
Value betting / Re: I need help understanding value betting
« on: July 02, 2017, 11:37:46 AM »
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)

What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

Good job :)
7
Arbing and trading talk / Re: BF (proof of income)
« on: June 30, 2017, 08:22:46 PM »
betfair is turning into a softbookie in terms of KYC, be ready for the worst. (selfie+funds confiscated)

Thats probably the paddypower ownership having an influence.
To be honest, what right does a bookmaker have to know who you work for and what you earn?

Gambling addiction and criminal activities. They need to know these things otherwise the books might get punished by law.

They care about their own ass and profits. That's it. Pure selfishness.

Yep. But the law is on their side.
8
Arbing and trading talk / Re: BF (proof of income)
« on: June 30, 2017, 06:38:20 PM »
betfair is turning into a softbookie in terms of KYC, be ready for the worst. (selfie+funds confiscated)

Thats probably the paddypower ownership having an influence.
To be honest, what right does a bookmaker have to know who you work for and what you earn?

Gambling addiction and criminal activities. They need to know these things otherwise the books might get punished by law.
9
Value betting / Re: Pinnacle true probability
« on: June 30, 2017, 12:20:39 PM »
Yeah but I don't think 1k subscribers is enough to make an odd drop, they are not all using the same bookmaker and it's not everybody that is betting large amounts of money. Even with 10k subscribers i would have a doubt.

Sometimes the odds that they bet on have maybe increased.

Also, when they predict 80% chance of Under 2.5 goals on any game, and the odds show 54% chance, i'm not thinking that there is a real 26% of difference, even if I should.

But i think i can trust this prediction to at least have an expected positive value, no?

A quick look on the site didn't give me much info. I can't even see which bookmakers they are using. But you can quite easily see, if they have an edge on the market, if they on average beat the closing lines on Pinnacle.

Their results for the past 2 years is 16825 picks with a negative roi on 3.49%. (If I am reading it correctly...).
10
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Can bookie limit bets legally?
« on: June 20, 2017, 06:03:37 PM »
Discrimination laws usually refer to race, color of skin, national or ethnic relations or sexual orientation. I don't see a problem here.

They might have a problem with marketing laws though, I think. But if it really got to court issues, then they could simply write with a small print in the bottom "if you prove to win too much, you might get limits to your account".
11
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding Bets to lose on
« on: June 20, 2017, 05:41:49 PM »
you would use Pinnacle(or a soft bookie of your choosing that offers the best multi combination)

Multi 2) A,D -> how would you make this bet?
Multi 4) B,C -> how would you make this bet?

Ahh alright. So you would need to use 4 different bookmakers.

Although statistically speaking if you use this method, the money will generally end up where you want it.

No.
12
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Finding Bets to lose on
« on: June 19, 2017, 09:35:09 PM »
Another good way is to find 2 arbs and they don't need to be at the 3-4 hour differnce, they just need to be between the same bookmaker.

MATCH 1) = Federer vs Nadal
MATCH 2) = Murray vs Djokovic

A) = Federer
B) = Murray
C) = Nadal
D) = Djokovic

Multi 1) A,B
Multi 2) A,D
Multi 3) C,D
Multi 4) B,C

Then its essentially a 4 way arb.
If you have 3 matches, then its a 8 way arb.

This is the best way I've found and you can easily use this technique to transfer money.
The bookmakers will be very happy with you and probably give you free pizzas and bonuses.
This is an alternative way than using ewallets.

Just ensure that if you do go with Tennis, that the same rule applies.

If the goal is to transfer money from one book to another, then read this post again:

OP: forget about this idea. There's no mathematical foundation to justify any way to do something like this properly. Like Max pointed out if you could find losers, then you could as well find winners and make easy money. So actually by arbing-out you'll just be plain gambling and risking to end up with much more money in the book where you want to lose... probably because you're having a hard time to withdraw. My advice would be to fight for that withdrawal by all possible means.

Also for your example. How do you make that work?

MATCH 1) = Federer vs Nadal
        Bet365: Odds 2 vs Pinnacle odds 2

MATCH 2) = Murray vs Djokovic
        Bet365: Odds 2 vs Pinnacle odds 2

A) = Federer
B) = Murray
C) = Nadal
D) = Djokovic

Multi 1) A,B -> odds 4 on Bet365
Multi 2) A,D -> how would you make this bet?
Multi 3) C,D -> odds 4 on Pinnacle
Multi 4) B,C -> how would you make this bet?
13
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 19, 2017, 12:11:52 AM »
Thanks for the input maletaja

Good point with Kyrgios/Paire/etc kind of players. They are hard to figure out, as they sometimes lose their heads. You need to take some more things into consideration here -> more variables -> harder for everyone. Is this a bad thing?

For your point with 1st round matches being easier to find value. Well I don't know if this is correct. I don't know how many good "tennis syndicates" there are. But I have an idea, that the lines get effective as soon as these syndicates place their bets (on average). I also think they get a chance to analyse most matches on both tours.

With your Kontaveit example, then I still haven't created any model yet (not going to have any time soon), but it would be an interesting spot to analyse deeper to see, if you really had a value bet. Minus value sometimes wins as well :)

I actually think that the big servers are the matches, where a model like this would be really helpful. Earlier in this thread I pointed out that odds on over 26 games was 1.74 just one hour before the start of the Muller-Karlovic match. Closing odds was 1.66. Margin here was 2.5%, so if you had bet one hour before gametime (1.74), you were sitting with an EV of 2.35% (if we assume the closing price was the right price). Not bad imo. This was a final between 2 big servers btw. So is it possible to find good spots in these matches as well?

Someone has to be the one getting the money from anything - live/pre/whatever. If you are good enough, why should it not be you?
14
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 04:15:57 PM »
Im glad i used example of Karlovic-Muller match, which proven too be truly very sharp line as i said.It ended 7:6 7:6

to quote you Nedlog Viibes":
"1 hour before the match you could get 1.74 on that over 26 bet (it ended in 1.66). If we assume 1.66 was the correct odds, then we would win approximately 2.35% in the long run from a bet on 1.74. I don't know what the limit was at the time, but 1 hour before the match I suspect it to be rather high."

From my perspective it had no point point taking 26.0. 25,5 at about 1,70 odds at least would make sense to me as last value line, as it was decent chance we see two tie breaks.

If 1.70 was the last spot with value for over 25.5, then you would give it 100/1.70 = 58.8% chance of happening. This means there would be 100-58.8=41.2% chance of under 25.5 games.

Under 25.5 games was 2.95 on the closing odds, which means you were sitting with a valuebet of 41.2*2.95 = 121.54.

I haven't had the time to test anything yet, and I did not watch the Tomic match. The word "should" kind of stands out though in your sentence. He might have been the favorite to win in 2 sets, but there obviously was a chance for Robert to take a set as well. A model imo gives you a more "unbiased" look at things.
15
Newbie's questions / Re: Math in tennis betting
« on: June 18, 2017, 03:05:51 PM »
Thanks for your input Samael.

"Now example of very sharp line today is Karlovic-Muller match.Even average guy knows that we are set to see tie breaks here with logical bet over games.Pinnacle at the moment has that set at over 26.0 1.67 meaning you will need three sets to land this,and with bad odds=zero value.If every match is this accurate we would be in big problems and thankfully they are not."

1 hour before the match you could get 1.74 on that over 26 bet (it ended in 1.66). If we assume 1.66 was the correct odds, then we would win approximately 2.35% in the long run from a bet on 1.74. I don't know what the limit was at the time, but 1 hour before the match I suspect it to be rather high.

"I get far from the topic sorry.Regarding stats this can be useful but can be dangerous to follow them blindly,
There isnt just serve hold percentage,first serve % etc - there is more things like break stats(from conversion to saving break points) % percentage of points won on 2nd serve can be crucial as well and it is very hard to come up with accurate data as players change tournaments,surface and their percentages also vary troughout the season.Too small sample size can also trick you badly"


I agree that you should not follow models blindly. But the rest of the above I do not agree with.

A model like this would treat the players like robots, so you would only need 1st serve in%, 1st serve win% and 2nd serve win% to create a model. The problem here is that we are dealing with humans, but I still think it is way better to see the players like robots to get a picture than having no picture at all.

Sample size should not be a problem here either.

I do not think this is the holy grail. But I think I will get a better understanding of how prices are set by the market/sharp books. Kind of like expected goals models in football.
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