BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - ppintaluba

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 38
1
Another question. What stake plan are you using to calculate profits?
2
Value betting / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: Yesterday at 06:54:17 PM »
I hope most people in this forum already know that :)

What I wrote about a winning strategy in the past not ensuring winning in the future is that the strategy can be a winning one, because the software takes the best closing odds. If you cannot bet the best closing odds (this is not easy) then the strategy can work, but you fail anyway. Maybe betting close to kick off and comparing available odds at the moment works.

The software could add in the future new features such a comparing a strategy using the best closing odds, the average odds, etc
3
Value betting / Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service
« on: Yesterday at 03:09:22 PM »
Hello. Nice tool, but I'm a bit exceptic (about the ability to win in the future based on a winning strategy in the past) :). Anyway, data is always valuable.

I have some questions.

1) What odds are considered in the results, after setting the filters for the strategy? The best closing odds available on all bookmakers in the database?

2) In this tool it's absolutly necesary to have accurate data. Where do you get this information and how do you validate it's correct? There are many sources and they have different information. For example, oddsportal has closing odds 6.79 for Freiburg against Dortmund, at Pinnacle (the same you show on your 1st video). On the other hand, in the game Mainz vs Dortmund you show Home odds 5.9 at Matchbook, but Oddsportal shows 5.85.

3) I saw Marathon and Unibet in the video. Which is the list of bookmakers? Will you provide an option to filter bookmakers and set commissions on Exchanges?

Sorry if some information is already explained on some video and I didn't find it.

Thank you
4
Arbing and trading talk / Re: win or void
« on: March 14, 2017, 09:23:10 PM »
You can contact Hong Kong Football Association (check http://www.hkfa.com/en/load_page/12 for email, fax and telephone), and ask them for details about this match (they have basic information here, http://www.hkfa.com/en/match/detail/21748/, but it does not include the match duration. The last goal was at minute 78 and it was a penalty).

It is strange that the same teams will play again tomorrow... (http://www.hkfa.com/en/leagueyear?year=2016-2017&leagueid=933&type=0&page=4&other=2&date=&team=0)



5
RebelBetting / Re: RebelBetting
« on: March 14, 2017, 12:50:29 PM »
Min arb 5%?
6
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Three Team Combinations
« on: March 09, 2017, 12:38:41 AM »
This only works if there are no draws, of course (Tennis, Basketball, etc.).
If draw is an option, you have 27 posible outcomes instead of 8.
7
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Three Team Combinations
« on: March 08, 2017, 12:34:55 PM »
It´s called a decision tree. See this picture with 2 ways to get all results (also valid for more games)

8
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Three Team Combinations
« on: March 08, 2017, 12:22:52 PM »
Correct
9
Just incredible, of course
10
General talk about alert services / Re: Oddstrawler
« on: March 07, 2017, 06:01:09 PM »
"The software behind our OddsTrawler has been provided by our good friends over at OddsMonkey".
11
Haven't you tried Smart Bet Tracker? You can track any kind of bet (surebets, single bets, parlays, etc.). If you track any bet available at Betfair, your bet will be settled automatically. You can also manually settle your bets. You have plenty of features (multiple bookmakers and wallets, multi currency with exchange rates, tipsters management, online events and markets from Betfair, tags for bets, money transactions, lots of reports, many more features). Your bets include sport, country, competition, event, market, pick, odds, bet date, event date, tags, tipster and more, so you can analyse your performance using a lot of information. It's free, forever, up to 5 bets a day. Very affordable plans if you need more volume.

Give it a try at www.smartbettracker.com
12
Arbing and trading talk / Re: win or void
« on: March 02, 2017, 04:28:38 PM »
http://www.hkfa.com/en//leagueyear?year=2016-2017&leagueid=0&page=1&other=0&date=2017-03-01

Officially the result is valid

Funny you are arbing there I have friends playing in reserve league and it's triad rigged, probably providing liquidity to triad bosses

I can ask some info to locals if your bookie doesn't want to settle


If you look carefully you will see 補賽/New Sch, which suggests it will be played again. If you translate 補賽 you will find something similar (at least I google translated to Spanish and found "reprogramacion" and Italian: "Ripianificazione")
13
If it's a big favorite (such as odds 1.05, 1.10, etc) on the book that voids the bet if the whole match does not end, the risk is low, because you will get a big refund. If the other book settles the bet (because one set was completed), you can win a lot (if the favorite withdrew) or lose a little.
14
Bookies discussion / Re: Matchbook and other bookies
« on: February 23, 2017, 06:17:36 PM »
Pinnacle
15
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Arb profit calcul
« on: February 23, 2017, 06:13:55 PM »
Well. It's not that easy as 1/odds + 1/odds + 1/odds. This only works for independent outcomes.
The math for other arbs (not independent) is more complex and you definitely don't need to understand it to decide if you will subscribe or not to betburger. You can test the amounts suggested by Betburger with different results to check if they work.

In the case you mentioned:

TO(0.75): 1.78
TU(1.5): 1.41
TU(0.5): 2.88

The logic is (S is stake, O is odds):

a) 0 goals (win second and third bets): S2 x O2  +  S3 x O3 >= S1 + S2 + S3
b) 1 goal (half win first bet, win second bet): S1/2 * (O1+1)  +  S2 x O2 >= S1 + S2 + S3
c) 2 goals or more (win first bet): S1 x O1 >= S1 + S2 + S3

Even if you don´t know the exact formula, you can build an Excel, place some of these formulas and play with stakes until you get the same result on all outcomes

             Stake         Odds       0 goals         1 goal            2 or more goals
O 0,75  200,00      1,78       L       0,00    HW   278,00     W   356,00   
U 1.5      55,50      1,41       W    78,26    W       78,26      L        0,00   
U 0.5      96,50      2,88       W   277,92    L         0,00      L        0,00   
            352,00                        356,18          356,26           356,00   
                              
Formulas to calculate each result are the ones on the left of each equation (a, b and c)

 
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 38