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Topics - Alfa1234

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Arbing and trading talk / Finding value in Pinnacle and Exchanges
« on: December 20, 2017, 12:50:55 PM »
Hey guys,

I made my target for the year so I'm exploring some new ways to find value.

Was looking at the spread/moneyline in basketball today and I noticed some large I'm trying to find a way to extract the value from it.

If you look at a Basketball game in Pinnacle and compare the spread to the ML odds, these usually have a fairly decent correlation.

Say if the spread is around 5.5, the odds of the underdog are between 2.8 and 3.2.  If the spread is around 8.5 the dog is priced between 4 and 4.4.

What I noticed though is, there is sometimes a discrepancy between the Pinnacle odds and the Betfair odds here IF Pinnacle has not yet posted a ML odd.

Right now e.g. the game of Jurmala VS Vytautas has a spread of 9.5 points on Pinnacle.  That means the ML odd of the dog should be between 4.8 and 5.2..meaning the favourite should be priced around 1.21 to 1.24. 

However, you can get that same favourite at Betfair for a price of 1.3 right now with decent liquidity.  Are we leaving value on the table here by not betting that odd?  Would you say Betfair is off in this case condidering the Pinnacle volume on Basketball is much higher than on Betfair?

Discuss.  :)
2 / Accessing from multiple computers
« on: December 05, 2017, 08:28:58 AM »
Fairly big bug here:

Same computer, no VPN...

Installed last night.  Had it open for a few hours to test, restarted this morning and getting this error  :)
3 / Which Markets & Sports ...
« on: December 04, 2017, 10:18:51 PM »
Could it be there are still some issues with not all odds being compared/detected?  I am seeing far fewer arbs compared to some of your competitors with exactly the same bookies and sport.
Rest Area / Visiting Cyclades in July
« on: May 16, 2017, 12:19:02 AM »
Hi Guys,

I'm planning a sailing trip from 1st till 15th of July in the Cyclades islands.  We plan to leave in Athens (Lavrio marina) and then sail to Kea, Kythnos, Syros, Mykonos (and maybe visit the ruins on Delos), Paros, Ios, Santorini, Milos, Sifnos, Serifos and then back to Athens.  This can be amended.

We plan on sailing in the morning (leave at about 8 or 9AM) and arrive around midday at our destination every day to avoid the strongest Meltemi winds in the afternoon.  Marina or harbour overnight stays would be the plan although we can grab a buoy or stay on anchor occasionally overnight if it's worth it.

Any tips, must-do's or general information would be greatly appreciated as I seem to be having a hard time finding good local info on the area besides the big tourist stuff.  Nothing is set in stone as we are just renting a bare-boat and can do whatever we want.  Must-do is Santorini because my wife absolutely wants to visit it but anything else can be considered.

Exchanges / Smarkets closing accounts from some locations
« on: January 13, 2017, 10:33:53 AM »
I got a mail yesterday Smarkets will close my account as I'm Belgian and they will no longer allow customers from my geographic location.  I presume some other countries will have gotten the same email.  I'm allowed to withdraw all my money and the account will remain open for another week to make sure everything goes well.  I use them often to lay big markets as the price is the same as at Betfair, but the commission obviously a bit lower.

Anyone know of an alternate way to get an account there (a private agent or something)?
Value betting / When does an odd have value?
« on: August 18, 2016, 12:12:36 PM »
Plain and simple.  If Pinny has an odd of let's say 2.16 on 1 end and 1.75 on the other in a major market.  What would you consider a valuebet?

Anything "arbable" obviously, but would consider an odd valuable if you found an odd of 2.25 for the first leg?  It's not an arb, but still 4.16% higher than the pinny odd.  What % above a pinny odd would you consider a valuebet?
Arbing and trading talk / Bookie Perks
« on: May 24, 2016, 10:10:49 AM »
I'm just wondering if anyone here ever receives any "perks" from bookies because you're a high roller with them?

I've so far gotten free tickets for the Belgian cup final, semi final, tickets for friendlies for the Belgian Red Devils, tickets for the European darts championship...

Am I the only one or is this a regular thing?
Arbing and trading talk / Italian Bookies
« on: March 16, 2016, 08:53:47 PM »
Loads of Italian bookies around.  I noticed you need a codice fiscale to register at almost all of them.  I have this, as well as a vacation house near Lake Garda.

Anyone got any experience with these bookies?  Would the above be sufficient for them to pay me, even though I live in Belgium?

Any info is much appreciated.
Value betting / Pinnacle Lean
« on: March 09, 2016, 11:59:03 AM »
Plain and simple question:

Does anyone have any data on betting along with the pinnacle lean on an exchange?  E.g. if Pinny is favouring Team A in a game VS team B (best market odds for team B, indicating they have a preference for team A and want no money on it).

You'd be betting value as you are beating the pinny line but avoid the soft limiting...and would basically be betting along with the Pinny traders.
Arbing and trading talk / Help me understand/disprove a flawed logic
« on: February 12, 2016, 10:07:13 PM »
So guys I was thinking.  The premise of every bookie out there is, they want a balanced book and have an average juice of 4 to 12% right?

Basically, without value betting, any punter will eventually lose money as the bookie has a mathematical edge.  Unless you start analysing games etc etc it is a given you'll lose money eventually.

So, if you "randomly" bet on games without taking the odds into consideration, eventually you'll bust your account if you just keep betting long enough.  You could have a pretty long lucky streak...but eventually you'd bust.  Correct?  I believe there is no mathematical or logical way that could "not" happen.

What if you were to lay every random bet you take at the soft bookie at an exchange, no matter what lay odds, arb or no arb, and just add 10% to your stake every time + add the juice of the bookie to your lay stake? Would this, long term, not make money or is my math on this flawed somewhere.  Let's say you win 20bets in a row at the soft, you'd have to add the juice of the bookie (basically the negative arb bet) to your exchange bet at every bet + add a % profit on top.  Granted, you'd need a pretty big bank in case of a very long "unlucky streak".

You lose money at the bookie, which is a given.  So that makes you win money at the exchange in the end...right?  Am I completely going crazy here?  Where is the flaw in my logic, which I know has to be there as it does not make sense...

Bookies discussion / William Hill verification is impossible
« on: December 19, 2015, 01:09:38 PM »
So after 2 months of trying and even contacting SBR (which is of no help as they say they cannot intervene in the verification process of a bookie), I am now desperate.  Not only does it take an average waiting time of about 1,5 hours to talk to their live chat...they do not reply to emails either.

I have sent 3 selfies holding different bank statements and electricity bills as well as various other things.

Here's our latest chat.  I have no idea what to do's completely rediculous.

Joseph B.: Hi, you’re speaking to Joseph B.. How may I help you?
Me: Hi Joseph, good afternoon!
Me: I sent new verification document through this chat over a week ago, but I have not heard back. I was wondering if you could check on this for me?
 Joseph B.: I will need to transfer you to our Verification team, who will be able to assist you further with your query. Please bear with me for a few minutes while I coordinate the transfer with them.
 Joseph B. has disconnected.
 Racela: Hi, you’re speaking to Racela. How may I help you?
 Racela: Sure! I'll be glad to help.
Me: Hi Racela
 Racela: Let me check that for you. Can I have your username so I can pull up your account.
 Racela: Thank you!
 Racela: As part of our security procedure, I would need to verify some information.
 Racela: Can I have your date of birth and the answer to your security question.
 Racela: Thank you for providing that information.
 Racela: As per our dedicated security team, they are asking for a photo of yourself while holding your proof of address.
 Racela: Also a photo of yourself while holding your ID>
Me: Yes, but I sent that last time.
Me: May I ask what the problem was with the previous pictures I sent?
 Racela: Please be advised that we have internal checking guidelines when verifying documents. Upon checking, I'm afraid that your given document did not pass the checking we've done.
Me: May I ask what I can do to correct the problem?
 Racela: Kindly provide the documents required by our dedicated security team to re open your account
 Racela: Kindly provide a photo of yourself while holding your ID and Proof of Address.
Me: both together?
 Racela: Please note it needs to be in a separate photo.
 Racela: The other photo id you holding your Id and the other photo is you holding your proof of address.
Me: ok, but I sent a picture with a proof of adress already. That one was not ok?
 Racela: Please be advised that we have internal checking guidelines when verifying documents. Upon checking, I'm afraid that your given document did not pass the checking we've done.
 Racela: Kindly provide the documents required by our dedicated security team to remove all the restrictions on the account,
Me: Yes, you already sent that. Can you please tell me what I should do differently with the next picture I take?
Me: As I already sent 3 different ones, 1 with an electricity bill and 2 with a bank statement. I do not know what is wrong with them.
 Racela: We require a new photo of yourself while holding your Id also your proof of address.
Me: Yes, you said that already. But as I already sent 3 different pictures of myself holding a proof of adress, I was wondering if you can tell me what is wrong with those 3 so I can correct the problem in the new picture I take.
 Racela: Yes i can see that, however our dedicated security team is asking for another photo of yourself while holding the documents asked.
Me: I will be happy to send one, but can you please tell me exactly what is wrong with the other ones so I do not repeat the same mistake a fourth time?
 Racela: Our dedicated security team were not able to see the authenticity of the documents you sent that's why they are asking for new photos.
Me: Can you please tell me what I can change in the new picture I take so they will be able to see the authenticity?
 Racela: Sorry, you just have to provide a legit requirement, you can change your background.
Me: Is it possible to do a video skype chat or so, so I can show the documents? I am getting quite desperate here.
 Racela: Sorry if you felt that way, however this is the only way to remove the restrictions on your account,.

It seems they will never give me my money.  What are my options?  I can and will provide any document they ask for but it seems they are just stalling and will never, ever pay.

And you know what the worst part is?  I verified my account 2 months ago, asked for a withdrawal by bank transfer and got it within 3 days.  After the 2nd withdrawal request they started asking for more documents.
Arbing and trading talk / Bookies that remain usefull after being limited
« on: November 01, 2015, 12:47:43 PM »
Hi all,

I was wondering if you could give me some info about your experiences with bookies that remain somewhat usefull even after being limited.

I know unibet, tipico and bwin are still very usefull for me as I can place 20 to 50 euro stakes even though my accounts have been limited for months.  I grind up a bunch of small bets and still make a decent profit at the end of the month.

Which other bookies remain somewhat usefull after being limited and to what extent?  Any info would be greatly appreciated.

Arbing and trading talk / Maximising Profits on 1 side
« on: September 28, 2015, 10:42:02 AM »
Hi all,

I've been playing with maximising profits on 1 side of an arb for quite a while but I'm struggling to find the "optimal" position.

Usually, I maximise profits on 1 side of the arb now when the favourite odds are 1.5 or lower.  If that side wins 51% of the time or more, my profits over time should be higher this way.  I'm not sure if 1.5 is the correct way to go though.  Anyone have any data or more information on this or has been doing this for a longer period?  Currently my data is inconclusive as I seem to be hitting it roughly 50/50, but I've only been doing it for a few months so it's hard to say which way the % will swing over time.

Thank you for any help or information.
Neteller / Bitcoin Deposits
« on: July 31, 2015, 10:46:11 AM »
Hi Everyone,

As of 10 september 2015, bitcoin deposits into neteller will no longer be free but subject to a 5% fee.  Who else here uses bitcoin quite often and will be affected?

I am asking because if enough users of this forum are affected, it may be possible to negotiate a better rate for those that joined Neteller through the banner here.

Thank you
Arbing and trading talk / How do bookies identify a second account?
« on: July 10, 2015, 08:47:16 PM »
Hi Everyone,

I was wondering how exactly a bookie would identify a computer has already been used by someone who got limited.  Obviously there's the IP and cookies, but there has to be something else or one wouldn't have to format a computer if you were to sell it to a fellow arber for him to be able to use it to arb.  Anyone have a clue what exactly the bookie uses to identify this computer?

It can't be hardware related so it has to be something in the software...

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