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Messages - NedlogViiibes

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Value betting / Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« on: October 19, 2017, 01:50:52 PM »
One of them, a specialist in top football leagues, started working for a large Asian syndicate.They pay him big money on pint/profit.

That's a pretty common setup now - it needs even tiny profit margins and there's really good money to be made there. eg 200 bets per month at 1%, 25k stake, nets 50k profit a month average. Insane liquidity available there.

I'd say a syndicate that doesn't work on slim profit margins is a bad syndicate.
Value betting / Re: Valuebetting with tipsters
« on: October 19, 2017, 11:17:05 AM »
When u  know math. If u have edge 0.1%, there could be huge swings. But edge with 5%+ or 10% u basically dont have any variance

You should read up on your math :)
So basically every single time you place a bet on the big leagues in football you make 27% in profits. Even greater numbers in other sports. Add to that you never make a mistake, unless something extraordinary happens... I'll stop wasting my time :)
Thanks for clearing that up :) What is your actual roi then Yasio? Return pr bet.

There are some things that doesn't add up in my head though..
Based on my experience, I categorically declare that the basis of long-term winnings in betting is to find value in the prices offered by bookmakers.But this task is not simple and easy.

Obviously - and the process is not simple and easy. Therefor I find the next statement rather odd:

In 2015 I found a way to extract and exploit value in sharp bookmakers and top leagues.I use a few simple and free internet tools.

Sounds rather simple and easy to me. To be able to beat the market in so many different sports you would need to either follow good tipsters (there was a discussion earlier about how difficult this task can be) or use data to model the games. It is impossible to have an edge on so many big markets without the use of data imo. Finding the right data is not easy and can be rather costly.

-In 95% of all games I beat the closing line.Cases where I fail are last-minute changes.change in expected squad, change in weather conditions and other extraordinary events.

So basically you always make a good bet. The circumstances you are talking about is all variance and goes both ways. Impressive.

Whenever someone comes off with an impression, that it is "easy" to beat the big markets on Pinnacle, then I can't put it aside. It is not easy to have an edge on these markets. Definitely not to have an edge on basically all of the big sports/markets out there.

I personally believe you can have an edge on these markets though. Some don't. The closing odds on Pinnacle reflects the true probability of an outcome to happen on the big markets on average. These probabilities can be figured out through mathematics and modelling, but for this to be possible you would need the right data and use it correctly.
Your numbers sound impossible, but I have a question anyway.

Why do you want to sustain such a high roi? With numbers like that you should have a large bankroll. I guess you find the real probabilities for an outcome to happen and bet when the market is off. You should pound these odds down to where your actual probability is, otherwise you leave value on the table.

Either you are on a serious hot streak and fooling yourself due to variance, otherwise you are full of bullshit :) How many picks are we talking about here? Opening lines? How much do you beat the closing odds on average?
General talk about alert services / Re: Searching for service!!!
« on: September 30, 2017, 01:58:04 PM »
I have checked all the pages in this forum, but no help, in general there is no help and thats normally, because no one says something useful, but i want find arb service that provide any of these odds ( no matters LIVE or prematch) - wettpunkt ( previously was BOV, not anymore), guts ( and their clones, no one i see offers), (somebody knows about this?) and synottip ( another mistic)!

Thats one way to come across on a forum asking for help on :)
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Online betting tax in denmark
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:29:58 AM »
Available :)
Bookies discussion / Re: Tonybet
« on: September 27, 2017, 08:13:24 PM »
Probably betsafe(triobet) and tonybet share information then if they are same group...otherwise there are no explanation. And skrill or any e-wallet is red alert for them
I have heard that betsafe group wants more $$$. Therefore no promotional offers and limits comes easy
Betsafe hasnt even anymore 100% deposit bonus

That guy was then lucky guy who sold this scam tonybet bookie

Hehe. Obviously they want more $$$. And promotional offers are not made for you. It's made for the company to make more $$$. Some win a little and get limited, some lose lots and is kept happy with more promotions. It's pretty simple really.
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Online betting tax in denmark
« on: September 26, 2017, 09:56:19 PM »
You simply can't register. They don't accept danish players.

The stupid thing is it is allowed for bookmakers to accept danish players and bets from danes etc, but they can't do any marketing directed at danes -> have danish crowns as a currency, the danish language on the page and stuff like that.
Arbing and trading talk / Re: double bet combined with asian hanidicap
« on: September 19, 2017, 07:05:20 PM »
If you bet -0.25, then you bet half the stake on handicap 0 and -0.5. On the other hand +0.25 is half the stake on handicap 0 and +0.5 (which seems like the bet you made)

That little sign before the handicap total is quite important ;)
Rest Area / Re: The Life of a Professional Gambler
« on: September 17, 2017, 08:54:20 AM »
the "luck" is confusing
probably its more like "variation"

But still premier leagues are so transparent and sharp, and i just doubt it...that man can beat market

It is luck. A team can win a match with a long shot at goal, while the other team had 20 really good chances. That is basically the beauty of football. Most people will only see a bad game from the team with 20 chances as they lost 1-0. Some will look at the underlying stats and see how variance/luck played a huge factor in this game

Also obviously you can beat the market. You can place your bets before kickoff, so you dont compete with the closing lines.. :)
Rest Area / Re: The Life of a Professional Gambler
« on: September 14, 2017, 04:04:29 PM »
The "luck" factor is what is called expected goals. A football match consists of very few goals, which means variance plays a huge role. You can basically only start to measure a teams skill at the end of the season by looking at the table, and even then it isn't certain, that the best team has the best goal differential.

Instead you can look at chances and attempts at goal. Take Premier League for example. If you look at the last 5 seasons and plot in all the attempts at goal, then you can figure out how often a goal is scored from certain situations, areas etc in this league. Some expected goals models are simple - others are really complicated. SmartOdds/Benham makes billions on this.
Arbing and trading talk / Re: Favourite-longshot bias in Sports Arbitrage
« on: September 12, 2017, 10:55:41 PM »
But odds at Sharp books reflect how bets are placed by bettors?

Odds at sharp books reflect how bets are placed by SHARP bettors, mainly pros, arbers and people with inside info.    Their lines are spot on 99.9% of the time.

That is some statement :)
Value betting / Re: Worst day ever for value betting!
« on: September 11, 2017, 07:25:13 PM »
My opinion is that sometimes we are folowing gamblers with the tone of money who discovers Pinnacle Sbobet Betfair and their money drop the odds!
For example this august,september somebody plays unders on friendly hockey matches on Pinnacle.
From 15 unders he misses 13.Nobody can convice me that he is a sharp player.
Unfortently most of value betters was following him me also!
That can be one of the reason for many losing bets!
There is a story that pinnacle traders are only moving odds when the sharp players place the bets (they know exactly witch account are from sharp players)
But so many times when I placed a bet on pinnacle or sbobet I see how my money change the odds (smaller liquid markets)...and I am not sharp player!
That is why I come to conclusion that we are sometimes following gamblers!

What was the limits on the hockey friendlies? I would be cautious with such matches.. Also it sounds like it is some tipster publishing picks. Variance plays a huge part here. If a tipster with a good record and a lot of followers posts a tip on a small market, then the lines will move. You can't be sure about his edge before he reaches +1000 picks.

Manchester City played Liverpool the other day. Here is Pinnacles betshares:

Asian handicap
Man City (-0.5) 21%
Liverpool (+0.5) 79%

Man City 27%
Liverpool 48%
Draw 25%

Antal mål (3)
Over 73%
Under 27%

So basically the public was all over Liverpool in this match. Odds were around 2.00 on City but ended in 1.89 = sharps on City at the said odds.
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