# Negative middle

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 Author Topic: Negative middle  (Read 1459 times)
ArberPro
Has some experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 180

« on: January 11, 2014, 01:11:02 AM »

Is it worth a 4 point middle with odds 1.85 -1.85 ? In NBA basketball considering that this NBA games are more stable in scoring points?
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ppintaluba
Pro

Karma: 34
Posts: 623

« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2014, 04:34:42 AM »

Doing some math, it will work if you hit the middle more than 8% of the times. In example, if you hit the middle 10% of the times you will get an 1.75% profit. If you hit 20% of the times, you will get a 11% profit. But if you hit 8% you get -0.1% and if you hit 5% you get -2.87%. If you never hit, you lose 7.5%
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ArberPro
Has some experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 180

« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2014, 04:41:57 AM »

Made 3 middles till now and one hit
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raizzak
Pro

Karma: 30
Posts: 688

« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2014, 07:12:23 AM »

doesn't matter you will be a lot lower in  long run and the % depend on how big middle it is, it is obvious that a -6 +7.5 with -6  +8.5 have a different success %
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cristi13
Probably a Pro

Karma: 5
Posts: 313

« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2014, 08:48:22 AM »

There is a big difference between AH and Totals. I have done some math on this and from what i recall, 0.5 points in AH is around 2.2% and in Totals around 1.2%. And i would think quite the opposite about NBA, the more points there are, the smaller the value of each point.
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ArberPro
Has some experience

Karma: 9
Posts: 180

« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2014, 12:22:25 PM »

I think the % raises if  you bet later in th e game.
 « Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 05:41:06 PM by ArberPro » Logged
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