3 outcomes

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 Author Topic: 3 outcomes  (Read 2199 times)
77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« on: March 14, 2014, 11:14:10 AM »

Hi Guys. been reading on here for a while and thought i would ask a newbie question. sure its me but with oddstorm and rebelbetting and im sure other sites aswell....the 3 outcome arbs dont seem to make sense, there isnt an arb there. ive done the calculations and every 3 way arb i always come up with a huge negative
e,g rebel betting today:

outcome 1 2.40
outcome 2 1.53
outcome 3 2.34

-50%!!!

i work that out as a big lose. tell me if its me but i just want some clarification from you more experienced arbers. thanks
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caraPan
Has some experience

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Posts: 170

« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2014, 11:22:24 AM »

those odds don't give an arb.
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77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2014, 11:32:36 AM »

well im glad it isnt me! so why do they always appear with 3 way outcomes, there on there now, are they glitches?
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kustef
Getting better

Karma: 7
Posts: 200

« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2014, 11:54:24 AM »

Hi Guys. been reading on here for a while and thought i would ask a newbie question. sure its me but with oddstorm and rebelbetting and im sure other sites aswell....the 3 outcome arbs dont seem to make sense, there isnt an arb there. ive done the calculations and every 3 way arb i always come up with a huge negative
e,g rebel betting today:

outcome 1 2.40
outcome 2 1.53
outcome 3 2.34

-50%!!!

i work that out as a big lose. tell me if its me but i just want some clarification from you more experienced arbers. thanks

what if one of them is asian handicap odds, or two of them?
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77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2014, 12:09:49 PM »

the odds are still the same as above regardless. Anyone shed anymore light

thanks for the replies
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cristi13
Probably a Pro

Karma: 5
Posts: 313

« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2014, 01:04:52 PM »

Hi Guys. been reading on here for a while and thought i would ask a newbie question. sure its me but with oddstorm and rebelbetting and im sure other sites aswell....the 3 outcome arbs dont seem to make sense, there isnt an arb there. ive done the calculations and every 3 way arb i always come up with a huge negative
e,g rebel betting today:

outcome 1 2.40
outcome 2 1.53
outcome 3 2.34

-50%!!!

i work that out as a big lose. tell me if its me but i just want some clarification from you more experienced arbers. thanks

Not enough info. What kind of outcome are these odds for? 1x2 or some other selection?
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77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2014, 01:24:36 PM »

ok a current example on oddstorm right now....

AH1   -1       1.83
EHX   -1       3.60
X2                3.25

e.g for easy reckoning, bet £100, guarateed loss of £11.58/13.10% no?
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qbet
Probably a Pro

Karma: 38
Posts: 371

« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2014, 02:20:39 PM »

The last example is actually an arb. EHX-1 pays when the home team wins exactly by one goal.
On the first example, AH1 (-1.5), AH1(-0.5) , AH2(+1) is an arb. Outcomes need to intersect.
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sportoboy
Getting better

Karma: 52
Posts: 206

« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2014, 09:15:59 PM »

I think that besides the "newbie" category, there must be a "clueless" category added in the forum
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ppintaluba
Pro

Karma: 34
Posts: 623

« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2014, 09:49:41 PM »

Hi Guys. been reading on here for a while and thought i would ask a newbie question. sure its me but with oddstorm and rebelbetting and im sure other sites aswell....the 3 outcome arbs dont seem to make sense, there isnt an arb there. ive done the calculations and every 3 way arb i always come up with a huge negative
e,g rebel betting today:

outcome 1 2.40
outcome 2 1.53
outcome 3 2.34

-50%!!!

i work that out as a big lose. tell me if its me but i just want some clarification from you more experienced arbers. thanks

This CAN be an arb. It depends on the markets. There are arbs where you win more than one bet at a time, or you win one bet and other is pushed (money returned), or half win, etc. The key is that the outcomes are not exclusive. In example:

AH1 -1.75 @2.27
AH2 +2 @2.1
AH2 +2.5 @1.375

AH1 -1.75      AH2 +2    AH2 +2.5    Total
Stake                                              117.00       91.00          54.00      262.00
Odds                                                  2.27           2.1          1.375

Possibilities                                                                                      Payout      Win
Team 1 wins by 3 or more              265.59          0.00           0.00       265.59     3.59
Team 1 wins by 2                           191.30          0.00          74.25       265.55    3.54
Team 1 wins by 1, draw or lose          0.00      191.10          74.25       265.35    3.35

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77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2014, 11:29:02 PM »

ppintaluba -

Many thanks, really helped that. im still researching as i go and learning all the time. Forums are a great tool. although i dont see why ppl feel the need 1) not to help in the slightest and 2) name calling but hey thanks sportoboy for all your input  .

Anyway ppintaluba thanks again i will look into that
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kustef
Getting better

Karma: 7
Posts: 200

« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2014, 11:55:40 PM »

ppintaluba -

Many thanks, really helped that. im still researching as i go and learning all the time. Forums are a great tool. although i dont see why ppl feel the need 1) not to help in the slightest and 2) name calling but hey thanks sportoboy for all your input  .

Anyway ppintaluba thanks again i will look into that

Search or google "cross market arbitrage" you will need to know what asian handicaps are.. Combination of asian handicaps and european handicaps and odds is something you will need  ..
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sportoboy
Getting better

Karma: 52
Posts: 206

« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2014, 06:31:56 PM »

ppintaluba -

Many thanks, really helped that. im still researching as i go and learning all the time. Forums are a great tool. although i dont see why ppl feel the need 1) not to help in the slightest and 2) name calling but hey thanks sportoboy for all your input  .

Anyway ppintaluba thanks again i will look into that

Mate, you obviously don't know even the very basics of betting. First learn how to bet, find out what each betting market type is etc and then start doing arbitrage. If you don't know how to bet, you can't arb. It's so plain simple. It's 100% sure that you will LOSE your money instead of making money from this if you don't take it step by step. I always encourage newbies to read this forum, but this isn't my advice for you. You have a lot to learn before coming here again to exploit arbitrage opportunities.
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77chieffev77
Newbie

Karma: -1
Posts: 6

« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2014, 08:54:09 PM »

im just trying to work out, via an excel spreadsheet a calculation for this type of arbitrage, AH EH etc. the online ones dont take into consideration free bets etc. yes im NEW hence why im asking newbie questions. whats the point of a forum (regardless) of the subject if you can't even ask newbie questions in the 'newbie' section. ive currently got a 2 outcome spreadsheet + 1 utilising free bets and also one for 3 outcomes + another utilising free bets. its just when you start with AH etc the spreadsheets becomes useless and you cant really work out the best course of actiono to maximise profits. listen ive never come on any forum asking to be spoon fed, and i aint here. im researching all the time here, this forum and the internet in general. I understand the bets, maybe you can help on the formula im trying to create on excel.
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ppintaluba
Pro

Karma: 34
Posts: 623

« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2014, 09:35:31 PM »

The arbitrage where outcomes are independent are very easy to calculate in excel (and I see you already did it).
Cross market arbitrage where outcomes are not independent are more difficult, because there are many combinations. It depends on the arb type the maths you have to do and there are many arb types.
It is much easier to use an online calculator that already solves this problem. Oddstorm has one with many options (you must register), and there are other sites also offering this.
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