Middles question

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mvroldan
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mvroldan

Middles question
« on: June 25, 2014, 12:20:23 AM »

Hello,

I have been toggling with middles and wondering if they are really worth it. While at it, I came up to this little piece of calculation:

Went to oddstorm to get a middle, and this one appeared as a 4.97:

Ecuador - France
U 4.5 - Unibet at 1.16     Stake: 100
O 3.5 - Bwin at 2.95       Stake: 39.32

Condition is: Total 4 goals to be scored.

Ok. Seems a regular middle and I went doing some calculations:

0-3 Goals :               100*0.16 = +16€             - 39.32                                = -23.32€
5 or more Goals:       39.32*1.95 = 76.67€      - 100                                    = -23.33€
4 Goals:                    100*0.16 = 16€              + 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€         = 92.67€

Now, it basically says, you risk 23.32€ to win 92.67€.

Or, in other terms, you bet 23,32€ at 4.97 odd = (23.32*3.97) = 92.58€

Now, funny fact is the odd at Sportingbet for total of exactly 4 goals scored is 5.5..... with a 23.32 bet = 104.94€ > 92.67€

So, why bet on this middle????
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mvroldan
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mvroldan

Re: Middles question
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2014, 12:28:21 AM »

Analyzing a Polish Middle now, this gives under the same bookie so all alarms went off:

Polish Middle: 3.32 (34.52%)(Condition: NOT Match Draw)
USA vs Germany              (International, World Cup ) (Thu 26 Jun, 16:00)
AH 1 (0)    6.750    100.00 (Unibet)
2           1.680    401.78 (Unibet)
Stake  :  501.78
If Lost: -401.78
If Win :  173.22

Ok, so i'm basically backing DC 12 at 1.43 and some change. If we go to the DC market, 12 in unibet is at 1.44!!!

401.78*1.44 = 176.78 > 173.22

Again... whats the point in middles.... If there is a middle, most likely there is a surebet since it has to be overvalued in one side
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Middles question
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2014, 10:34:08 PM »

Hello,

I have been toggling with middles and wondering if they are really worth it. While at it, I came up to this little piece of calculation:

Went to oddstorm to get a middle, and this one appeared as a 4.97:

Ecuador - France
U 4.5 - Unibet at 1.16     Stake: 100
O 3.5 - Bwin at 2.95       Stake: 39.32

Condition is: Total 4 goals to be scored.

Ok. Seems a regular middle and I went doing some calculations:

0-3 Goals :               100*0.16 = +16€             - 39.32                                = -23.32€
5 or more Goals:       39.32*1.95 = 76.67€      - 100                                    = -23.33€
4 Goals:                    100*0.16 = 16€              + 39.32*1.95 = 76.67€         = 92.67€

Now, it basically says, you risk 23.32€ to win 92.67€.

Or, in other terms, you bet 23,32€ at 4.97 odd = (23.32*3.97) = 92.58€

Now, funny fact is the odd at Sportingbet for total of exactly 4 goals scored is 5.5..... with a 23.32 bet = 104.94€ > 92.67€

So, why bet on this middle????

You should bet on middles if it's worth. You placed just a bad example. There are many examples where it is good to place a middle.
There are also cases where it's an arbitrage and a middle.
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ranrom
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Re: Middles question
« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2014, 09:17:27 PM »

The issue is to decide if place an arb or a middle if the you have the opportunity. If the win from arb is marginal I prefer to try the middle, even if it is negative but has value in it.
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