Maximising Profit: What % Profit & % Drawdown to expect when NOT covering arbs

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asymarber
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asymarber


Edited for clarity:

Fellow arbers with balls of steel,

For those who have arbing for a long time,  and have pursued the strategy of NOT covering the sharp sides of your bets...

a) What %profits of your capital can we expect if you do NOT cover other side of bets with sharps?

b) what is the largest drawdown in terms of % of your capital have you experienced on a monthly basis?

From what I gather, if we do NOT cover the other sides of our arb bets with sharps, we should in theory earn the long term % profits that the soft bookmaker we are arbing with makes. If the soft bookmaker has a 7% over round, we should expect a 5-6% long term profit. The 1-2% difference being the "cost" of moving odds to manage books. I for one cover all sides of my bets, but am hoping fellow arbers who had the balls to NOT cover can share how much in % terms have you made on your capital, annualised.

cheers,
aa
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 11:47:46 AM by asymarber » Logged
Thordin
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Thordin

Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2014, 10:16:34 AM »

Fellow arbers,

For those who have arbing for a long time, is NOT covering the sharp sides of your bets the best way to MAXMIZE Profits?

a) What %profits of your capital can we expect if you do NOT cover other side of bets with sharps?

b) what is the largest drawdown in terms of % of your capital have you experienced on a monthly basis?

From what I gather, if we do NOT cover the other sides of our arb bets with sharps, we should in theory earn the long term % profits that the soft bookmaker we are arbing with makes. If the soft bookmaker has a 7% over round, we should expect a 5-6% long term profit. The 1-2% difference being the "cost" of moving odds to manage books. I for one cover all sides of my bets, but am hoping fellow arbers who had the balls to NOT cover can share how much in % terms have you made on your capital, annualised.

cheers,
aa

In theory you could more than double your profits, but there is no telling how many months in a row you will be in red, nor how deep in red.
If you have the nerve and the bankroll to afford, lets say 6 months losing, which is probably not going to happen but better be ready, go for value betting.
I for example, would have make more than double my profits if I didnt cover in the last 4 months but i dont need more stress than i already have :)
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raizzak
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raizzak

Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2014, 10:22:12 AM »

Again again and again same questions same answers there at least 2 more topics with that particular topic.... there is search button for a reason
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cortomaltese
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Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2014, 10:54:43 AM »

Again again and again same questions same answers there at least 2 more topics with that particular topic.... there is search button for a reason

True  , but any feedback or boost for one of the most intriguing questions about arbing is never useless ...   To arb or not to arb here's the question ;)
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raizzak
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raizzak

Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2014, 11:11:08 AM »

It has already a detailed answer a repeat is just useless space
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Thordin
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Thordin

Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2014, 11:17:34 AM »

It has already a detailed answer a repeat is just useless space

Its ok man, Im the one that  wasted my time typing the answer :)
Dont complain with no reason...
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asymarber
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asymarber

Re: Maximising Profit: not covering vs covering at sharps
« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2014, 11:39:38 AM »

Yes this has been discussed through time and across forums. However, the difference here is that the question is not whether we as arbers should cover with sharps.

The question is what risk-reward can we expect from NOT covering with sharps. At best, answers everywhere else has been u need balls of steel and you will make much more.. with huge potential drawdowns. I have seen nothing on actual reported profits and drawdowns. If you have seen such figures, I would appreciate links.

I am hoping brothers who have transcended to this next level, can provide guidance on their % profit per annum, and give an idea of the largest % of capital monthly drawdowns they have seen.

In short, this question is for brothers who have attained such balls.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 11:44:14 AM by asymarber » Logged
raizzak
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raizzak


im not sure if anyone doing this exclusively here, but the answer is simple just review your profit/losses (well losses more likely) on sharps  per annum and and calculate the % of stakes you used they are, you have your answer on actual numbers and %
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asymarber
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asymarber


Yes, if you have kept detailed logs, I would appreciate posts of your would-have-been % profits and largests % drawdowns in a month, NOT covering your arbs VS what you have actually earned in % profit covering your arbs.

As I am a relatively young arb-er, I do not qualify to post my would-have-been figures.. mine are not long run enough.

With real examples of bros with balls of steel, may the rest of us who are looking to take the next leap, leap so with added confidence.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2014, 01:37:48 PM by asymarber » Logged
ppintaluba
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Yes, if you have kept detailed logs, I would appreciate posts of your would-have-been % profits and largests % drawdowns in a month, NOT covering your arbs VS what you have actually earned in % profit covering your arbs.

As I am a relatively young arb-er, I do not qualify to post my would-have-been figures.. mine are not long run enough.

With real examples of bros with balls of steel, may the rest of us who are looking to take the next leap, leap so with added confidence.

I did a quick analysis for a 2 years+ period. The analysis is nonsense but these are the figures  :)
Considering only some soft bookmakers (I selected bwin, bet365, ladbrokes, betsson, betsafe, boylesports, marathon, titan, unibet, will-hill), my profits were 63% higher than considering all bookmakers. But I had 5 months periods without winnings.... Look at the graphs.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers


ppin this is an excellent job that you ve done. I wish I could say the difference in the x axis.
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba


ppin this is an excellent job that you ve done. I wish I could say the difference in the x axis.

I have analyzed a bit more and results are a bit more interesting, because profit is 63% higher, but stake is half (well, 57%).
So in fact, profit is much more. My yield was 1.66% for all books and 4.77% on soft books.
All book: stake 17.000 units, profit 280 units
Soft: stake 9.650 units, profit 460 units
(rounded numbers)
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TomU
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Hello!

I cann't contribute with figures nor with experience, but maybe with a link (and a calculator) which may answer the drawdown question (drawdown as a function of stakesize (% of your capital) and expected return (% profit of your stake).

Here the Monte Carlo Simulation is used (and another way..):

http://www.automated-trading-system.com/resources/risk-of-ruin-and-drawdown-calculation-tool/

Maybe helpful....

Best regards,

Tom
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raizzak
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raizzak


pint awesome job but do me a favor if you live arb then drag 365 to sharp books and check again for the numbers.
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba


pint awesome job but do me a favor if you live arb then drag 365 to sharp books and check again for the numbers.

No. I don't live arb.
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