Bobo
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« on: August 20, 2014, 02:03:13 AM » 

Dear Arbers,
I need your help to design 14 team parlay calculator.
Bet365 and other bookies will award you 100% of your winning if you win 14 leg accumulator. We know this is every once's dream. As an arber how can we take an advantage of this offer and hedge our bets sequentially as the match progress.Let say the average odd is 1.5, Total odds will be 291.93. We would like to win $2000.00, we would subtract 1 from total odds which is 290.93 and use it to divide the amount we would like to win which will be $6.87. We would bet $6.87 on this accumulator ticket.If We win, Bet365 will award us another $2000.00. Do Any one of you know how I can design this calculator? I do not no how to balance this because I do not know the odds to use. Tried using 1.5+1 which 2.5 but my lay liability is greater, If I won the whole bet at the bookie. Beside if we can design this calculator we can use it without a bonus because chances of winning 14 team accumulator is very very slim. The only way you will loose is if you win the 14 team accumulator at bookies. But We can always use the bonus to protect our capital.
Please I need your help in this project. If you already have this calculator I would not mind buy a copy from you.
Thanks,
Bobo.



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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2014, 03:53:09 AM » 

You want to know how much to lay on 14 individual bets to arbitrage against the 14 bets accumulator? I think the 100% bonus is not much on a 14 bets accumulator. In fact if average odds is 1.5, after adding the 100% the average odds turns to be just 1.576. 1.5 ^{14} * 2 = 1.576 ^{14}I played with excel and I have an example that could work (but it depends on many things, like your commission and the lay odds you get). I would say it's no worth, but I have not studied a lot. I attached a screenshot of the excel. I assumed lay odds 1.55 and a 2% commission. In this case, I could place lay bets to win only $0.9. If my goal is greater, I would lose (if all lay bets lose). Each lay bet pretends to win exactly to cover the stake on the accumulator bet an all previous lay bets lost and have a fixed profit. In the image you see the most complex formula (getting the risk on each lay bet) Maybe I did something wrong (it's late .



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Bobo
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Posts: 68


« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2014, 05:35:53 AM » 

Please could you tell me how you arrived with the odd of 1.576 before commission.
Thanks, Bobo.



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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2014, 11:58:19 AM » 

Just tried a few numbers until I got 1.576. It's easy to try with excel. It's the 14th root of 583.86
1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 2 Is equal to 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 That has nothing to do with the commission. The commission is for the lay odds.



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Bobo
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2014, 12:45:52 PM » 

Thank you very much for you help.
One more question for you, How did you come up with Goal Profit?
Thanks again in advance.



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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2014, 12:58:16 PM » 

1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 2 Is equal to 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576 x 1.576
If i understand this correctly there is little to no value on the whole thing..



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Bobo
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Posts: 68


« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2014, 01:10:30 PM » 

Well there is books that will pay you 100% of your winning with 6 or 8 accumulators. you can see that there is value now.



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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2014, 02:22:00 PM » 

Thank you very much for you help.
One more question for you, How did you come up with Goal Profit?
Thanks again in advance.
In the excel, lay odds, commission and goal profit are parameters. Given the commission and lay odds I chosed, a higher goal, such as $1 could lead to a loss if all lay bets are lost. Of course if you win one of the lay bets, you reach the goal no matter what goal you set.



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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2014, 04:09:57 PM » 

The fact the bet365 doubles the final payout translates to 5% increase to the odds of each bet, since 1.05 is approximately equal to the 14th root of 2. Let's say for example that the odds for each bet365 bet are 2.0. Then the payout becomes equal to 2.0 to the 15th power. This is about the same as 2.1 to the 14th.
Unfortunately you won't be able to hedge this if you get to the end, or even close, as the amount will be huge and not even the sharps will offer such stakes. If the odds are 1.5 as you say it will be more manageable but it could be challenging to find value consistently at short odds.
This isn't the end of your problems. The initial stake you have suggested is too small to make it worth while. You need to bet a lot more but unfortunately betting more means it would become harder to cover your bet in full if you get to the last bets.


« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 04:11:30 PM by qbet »

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Bobo
Newbie
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Posts: 68


« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2014, 04:17:30 PM » 

Thanks again I appreciated all the help from you.
My next question is, do you know how I can calculate the 100% Extra odd automatically without trying different odds.
Example since 1.5 = 291.93 100% =291.93X2 = 583.86.
Do you know the formula I should use in excel so that 583.86 will give me the real odds bookies is using to pay for 100%.
Thanks in Advance.
Bobo



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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2014, 04:25:37 PM » 

Bobo, I know that you are having a great set of calculators and some people are still asking about them. do you think you could put all of them in one place so all of our members take advantage of them? Thanks.



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Bobo
Newbie
Karma: +3/4
Posts: 68


« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2014, 04:31:44 PM » 

For sure mate When I finish this project I will release to all members



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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2014, 05:14:51 PM » 

Thank you Bobo. Let me know.



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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2014, 06:44:09 PM » 

Thanks again I appreciated all the help from you.
My next question is, do you know how I can calculate the 100% Extra odd automatically without trying different odds.
Example since 1.5 = 291.93 100% =291.93X2 = 583.86.
Do you know the formula I should use in excel so that 583.86 will give me the real odds bookies is using to pay for 100%.
Thanks in Advance.
Bobo
=POWER(odds, 1/14)



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Bobo
Newbie
Karma: +3/4
Posts: 68


« Reply #14 on: August 20, 2014, 08:11:39 PM » 

Thank you very much from the bottom of my heart. I appreciate all your help. You are a life saver. I will start making my bets now.
Bobo.



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