Looking for a tipster

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voyager2007
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voyager2007

Looking for a tipster
« on: August 21, 2014, 10:27:26 AM »

 I'm  asking all you from your expierience. What do you want from a tipster? What is this, that  could make you to follow him? What do you usually check from a new tipster you found to see if he is good or not?
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2014, 09:53:14 AM »

First of all, Tipster's leagues/sports should have good limits. It doesn't make sense to follow a latvia basketball league tipster or a tennis tipster who tips only ITF tournaments.

F*ck the yield, it's not so important. Look to total units. You don't pay the bills with yield. Focus on total units won. At the end of the month, tipster with %5 yield but +5 units will grant you more profit then a tipster with %20 yield but +3 units. (based on flat 1 unit)

Win/Lost ratio is not so important either. Focus on Total Units won, again based on flat 1 unit.

There shouldn't be a dramatical differences between units. Stay away from scamdicappers who suggest you to 1 unit on 1 game and 50 unit on another. Stay away from scamdicappers who has fancy unit names like Game Of The Year, Game Of The Millennium, Game of my Career, Pick of God etc.

How seriously this tipter is? This tipster is a full time bettor or he has a 9-5 job too so he won't be able to tip you during conferences/meetings? Or he is a student who lives with his parents? He is betting on his own his picks too? If yes, how much? These factors are also important.

But let me ask, this is an arbitrage forum and why you mess with tipsters when you can make money with arbitrage trading, hehe. In today's age, not easy to find a reliable tipster, most of are scam so be careful.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 07:36:30 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

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voyager2007
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voyager2007

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2014, 06:48:02 PM »

Actually I 'am a trader. But I like to watch some good tipsters in order to combine a trading with a good pick. If you choose the games by some relyble tipsters, then the trader's job is easier. Thanks for the answer !!!
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2014, 07:43:57 PM »

Well, still your job is not easy since you have to manage these tipsters. They may have bad streaks, they may have disastrous streaks. They're human after all, they're emotional beings and they're prone to emotional events such as marriage, divorce, death of a relative, illness, breaking up with girlfriend etc.

I was a professional handicapper too. I had many clients from different parts of the world. It's a profitable job but I lost my focus after I started arbitrage trading and I decided to end my service. The problem is, most people have unrealistic expectations. And most people don't have necessary management skills. Most people press their stakes during losing streaks and bust their bankroll. If you can find some reliable tipsters, it may grant extra profit but still there will be a stress involved. You will have to track tipsters in order to not miss picks, you will have to monitor tipsters' performance. You may miss arbs while looking for tipster's pick.

But hey who needs tipsters anyway when you have the most powerful tipster on earth, The Pinnacle Lean? No tipster can be good as Pinnacle Lean. Just pick value bets, mathematics and time will take care of the rest!

Good luck!

PS: You can check out statfox forum and fcbet for my old, wild adventures. I was a phenomenonal tipster, lol.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2014, 07:47:47 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

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tat
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tat

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2014, 01:17:41 AM »

Blogabet has some great tipsters.
One important thing, is to choose a tipster with enough bets to have some kind of statistical significance.

Everything less then 200-300 bets could be just luck. Avoid tipsters with high average odds. When you play high odds, the volatility is a nightmare.
Perfect tipster for me, would be someone with a 10% yield, > 300 bets with average odds around 1.5 - 2.0 with 1 or 2 bets per day (stakes = 2.5% bankroll).

By the way, I have read a great book regarding tipsters 'how to find a black cat in a coal cellar.
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qbet
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Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #5 on: August 23, 2014, 06:21:39 PM »

Hi voyager2007,

There isn't a lot you can say by looking at the performance of a tipster after a few hundred bets only. What you can do is to record the bets yourself at the prices you can find and not at what they have suggested and discard the useless picks at soft-books which are there to inflate the tipster's ROI. Then you need to compare them to the actual closing line inferred by the sharps/BF. That would take some work but would remove most of the variance and could give you a more reliable estimate of their true expected return and not the suspiciously high advertised in their services.

Even without detailed analysis you can just look for tipstes whose picks often signal market corrections. That could be useful for trading. Unfortunately picks aren't updated in real time. Every arber-trader knows that timing is everything. Arbitrage alert services often get a lot of criticism because they are only a few seconds late. The line has moved and the value is gone! How can tipping services get away without even vaguely addressing these issues. They get away because they target casual-recreational player only.
I would also be very suspect of tips for major leagues. Good information, (again at the right time) can worth really a lot there so why are they asking for so little? There are also people  doing some serious quantitative analysis for those leagues. Difficult to get an edge over them.

By they way I would definitely trust picks by BOOYAKA or Buddha but unfortunately they aren't for sale!
« Last Edit: August 23, 2014, 06:23:50 PM by qbet » Logged
Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #6 on: August 23, 2014, 08:51:35 PM »

Make sure your tipster is charismatic as Stu Feiner!



Remember, being a good tipster and being a good salesman are totally different things!
A Professional Handicapper is a person who is marketting his plays.
Tipster is a person who just gives tips :D

Meet the Guru of Handicappers, Stu Feiner! His picks suck but who cares? He's best in show business, lol!

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HeavyRigid
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HeavyRigid

Re: Looking for a tipster
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2014, 02:59:16 AM »

"Two shots of sambucha. I am feeling SWEEEEEET!!!"  This guy is hilarious
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