When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book

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DonkeyKong
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DonkeyKong

When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book
« on: September 02, 2014, 03:05:29 PM »

Hi. Often when an arb comes up on an alert service I bet it on the soft side quick and try to accept it on pinnacle too and it has already changed the odds. Yesterday I tried to click betting again and they had the odds lowered again before I click to accept the new odds.

Anyway they droped to a point where this was a -1% arb quick, In this scenario I believe they only changed the odds because arbers were pounding on the line. If you are in this spot do you wait like an hour for the odds to get back up or do you bet the -% arb right away? (If you can't get any better odds on other books)

Thanks.
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book
« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2014, 03:10:53 PM »

Difficult to predict a line move, but when you see (in your alert services) a line moving down to almost every bookmaker, then it is better to wait some minutes before covering the pinnacle leg. Also, you have to observe things. For example, a strong favorite tends to have its odds down before kick off.
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Thordin
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Re: When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book
« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2014, 03:18:48 PM »

I vote cover it up, forget about it and move on. Time is money and that-1% arb only needs a 1% to break even, you can easily place that.
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HeavyRigid
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Re: When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2014, 01:25:11 AM »

Interesting question DK

I have often noticed the same thing, with Pinnacle odds dropping slightly then bouncing back up shortly after I have placed my bet. However I also notice sometimes I am offered higher odds, so in the long run I have a feeling it would even itself out.

Perhaps there is an opportunity for someone to find an "edge" here, but I don't have the time or know-how to do it.

To answer your question; personally I would lock in the 1% loss quickly. I don't like to gamble.
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DonkeyKong
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Re: When sharp odds drop after you bet on soft book
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2014, 01:52:20 PM »

It is just that I have booked a -% arb like 3 times now. And when I check the odds on pinnacle after an hour they are back up.

Probably just a coincidence if pro arbers haven't seen a correlation between this.
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