Avoid being limited by soft bookies

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nidaime
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nidaime

Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« on: November 02, 2014, 02:19:48 AM »

Hi Arbusers,
   I have read a lot of the threads on this forum. My question is, if you always lose on the soft-bookie by betting the underdog in that bookie, why would they limit your account? I mean they are making money off of you right? Ocassionally you might won, but overall, the soft bookie's EV of catering to your bets will be +. I am sure a lot of people has experienced this but I couldn't find an answer in this forum. Also, would it help if you always bet in amounts that are not suspicious such as 10,20,25,100,250? Rather than 98, 107, 154?

If you're strategy is always bet 100$ on the underdog, how would they detect you as an arber? Solely from betting the same opportunities as other arbers?
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Carni
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2014, 06:11:51 AM »

If they are the soft bookie, then by definition your bets are +EV for you, and -EV for the bookie, regardless of the fact that they're the underdog.

So your question doesn't make much sense. The bookie is losing money to you in the long run.
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nidaime
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nidaime

Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2014, 06:24:45 AM »

can you clarify it? I bet 100$ 50 times. The bookie earns $5K assuming I lose it all due to selecting the underdog. How is that negative EV for them?

It is +EV for me because I have an additional position in another bookie. But as far as the soft bookie is concerned, he is earning money from me right?
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2014, 07:14:28 AM »

One you ll win. Or maybe more than one.
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Thordin
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2014, 08:00:11 AM »

I bet you would win 5 or more out of 50.
Picking losers is hard!
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cristi13
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2014, 10:36:13 AM »

can you clarify it? I bet 100$ 50 times. The bookie earns $5K assuming I lose it all due to selecting the underdog. How is that negative EV for them?

That's the typical recreational player mentality, that by betting favorites you will win, and it's wrong.
Let's take an easy fictitious example:
Favorite is 1.40 at sharp book.
Underdog is 3.80 at soft book. This is a 2.3% arb.
Lets say favourite has 70% chance of winning and underdog has 30%.
Favorite: 70*1.4=98% return, so on average you lose 2% of the bet.
Underdog: 30*3.8=114% return, so on average you win 14%.



« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 10:42:57 AM by cristi13 » Logged
drhoo
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2014, 10:49:40 AM »

how do you know its 70:30 though? if it'd be 80:20, your math checks out.

edit: i mean, you can't calculate the chances of winning for any team. you can only estimate it. and if you estimate it, you can pick any odds and say, this odd is +ev for me, because i estimated the chance of winning is xy%. now, my estimation alone doesn't make a bet +ev ... so how would you know the real chances of winning and whether the bet is +-ev ?

« Last Edit: November 02, 2014, 11:06:28 AM by drhoo » Logged
cristi13
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cristi13

Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2014, 11:14:19 AM »

80% would yield a 12% ROI.
What's your yield on sharps? My guess is that it's much closer to -2% than to +12%.
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drhoo
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2014, 11:20:56 AM »

ok how about 72:28

either way, it's still an estimation.
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nidaime
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2014, 02:24:34 PM »

can you clarify it? I bet 100$ 50 times. The bookie earns $5K assuming I lose it all due to selecting the underdog. How is that negative EV for them?

That's the typical recreational player mentality, that by betting favorites you will win, and it's wrong.
Let's take an easy fictitious example:
Favorite is 1.40 at sharp book.
Underdog is 3.80 at soft book. This is a 2.3% arb.
Lets say favourite has 70% chance of winning and underdog has 30%.
Favorite: 70*1.4=98% return, so on average you lose 2% of the bet.
Underdog: 30*3.8=114% return, so on average you win 14%.

What I am saying is by betting the underdog at the soft bookie we wil lose most of the time. By most I mean we will end up -EV. We are also assuming the market is X% correct (where X is sufficiently high), that the favorite will always win. The fact that we are not even accounting outside information about our bet, it already means we are -EV. Betting the underdog everytime isn't a good strategy right? But the odds are good so that's our reason for betting.

There might be a few games that are mispriced here and there but in the end, we will blow all our money in the soft bookie and we will have to redeposit again. Now isn't that what a soft bookie wants?

Is the fact that we are always betting the underdog also a red flag that we are an arber??

Thanks for your opinion guys.
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Thordin
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Thordin

Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2014, 02:33:05 PM »

If that theory worked, bank at the softbook getting busted because we bet the underdogs, why bother placing the bets there in the first place?
We could bet only the favourite side on the sharps and win more :D

But it wont work, those few times that the underdog will win will bring you profit enough to cover the previous losses,simply because the prices on the underdogs that you will be picking will be overpriced.
And that is what value betting is about, which you should study closer.
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Arbman
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Re: Avoid being limited by soft bookies
« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2014, 02:35:00 PM »

Pretty sure its the opposite and bookies would be much happier with you backing odds on 1.15 shots every weekend. Look at Barcelona yesterday, Dortmund at home to Hannover last weekend. These results happen more then you would think.
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