can you clarify it? I bet 100$ 50 times. The bookie earns $5K assuming I lose it all due to selecting the underdog. How is that negative EV for them?

Quote from: nidaime on November 02, 2014, 06:24:45 AMcan you clarify it? I bet 100$ 50 times. The bookie earns $5K assuming I lose it all due to selecting the underdog. How is that negative EV for them?That's the typical recreational player mentality, that by betting favorites you will win, and it's wrong.Let's take an easy fictitious example:Favorite is 1.40 at sharp book.Underdog is 3.80 at soft book. This is a 2.3% arb.Lets say favourite has 70% chance of winning and underdog has 30%.Favorite: 70*1.4=98% return, so on average you lose 2% of the bet.Underdog: 30*3.8=114% return, so on average you win 14%.