Profit on the favourite

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hammers
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Profit on the favourite
« on: November 05, 2014, 03:34:21 PM »


Im quite new to this but from what I understand, you arb and get the same profit on any outcome.
What about arbing so that you take all the profit on the favourite win and moneyback on the other side ?
I do, and won both my arbs so far that way.
In that way you even have a little bit entertainment following that match, and in the long run should do the same profit...?
Or what can I have misunderstood ?

If interested I can run a thread here and compare the two ways of arbing on those matches that I arb.

hammers
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Arbusers
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2014, 05:05:47 PM »

Sometimes the underdogs win.
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2014, 05:20:19 PM »


Im quite new to this but from what I understand, you arb and get the same profit on any outcome.
What about arbing so that you take all the profit on the favourite win and moneyback on the other side ?
I do, and won both my arbs so far that way.
In that way you even have a little bit entertainment following that match, and in the long run should do the same profit...?
Or what can I have misunderstood ?

If interested I can run a thread here and compare the two ways of arbing on those matches that I arb.

hammers

I usually do the opposite.
When i have low limits and short odds , then i put all the profits on the very high odd , which gives me either no profits (if short odd hit) or very high profits (if high odd hit).
If you put all the winnings on short odd , then you will either win nothing (if high odd hits) or make few profits (if short odd hit).

Yes , the probability that the short odds hit is much higher in theory , but practically you will see that the high odds will hit very often.

Once i got an soccer arb 1.30 - 13.00  and since my limits were 30 EUR at the bookie with odd 1.30 , then i staked all my winnings (9 EUR) at odd 13.00 and guess what ? It hits odd 13
 And believe me , i have hit odds such as  11 , 13 ,15 up to 20.
« Last Edit: November 05, 2014, 05:25:07 PM by fnatic91 » Logged
Arbusers
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2014, 05:49:43 PM »

It's amazing the number of 20/1 horses that fly home when you're arbing :D

Stats show that 4 out of 1000 horses that go up to odds of 1000, will eventually win the race.
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Skaggerak
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2014, 06:11:39 PM »

If you're doing this kind of strategy I would think it would be better to put the profit on the soft book rather than the favourite,this way you're backing the odds that are the better value and the odds that win more often.

You could easily back the favourite with the profit on their side and lose 5 times in a row earning nothing and then get limited with nothing to show for it.
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hammers
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2014, 06:23:52 PM »

Thanks for your views.
I guess it all depends on if the odds ( probabilities) are correct or not in the long run, if the favourites are underpriced or not...where the real value is. hard to know about horses.

I only monitor soccer, especially english. Testing next 10 arbs for profit in 3 ways.

Like arb today, total stake usd 1000,-

Fulham -0,5 (1,67 yepbet)
Blacpool +0,5 (2,63 pinnacle)

Even profit: usd 21,42
Fulham-profit: usd 35
bpool+0,5.profit: usd 55.15

Let's see now  :)


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qbet
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2014, 08:31:43 PM »

It will make no difference in the long term. If you leave all the profit on the value side(soft side) it will makes some difference but  really very marginal.
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hammers
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hammers

Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2014, 09:31:49 PM »

I guess you're right that it makes no difference, provided odds are about market price.
So what we have left is the entertainment of picking a side, and since the soft side makes us win most, it would probably be more exciting cheer for the outsider...
But the bots out there, have they options to arb this way or are  systems bound to give even profit ? There seem to be several providers of arb monitoring, does anyoner know ?

up the hammers

Bet 1: Fulham - Blackpool 2-2.  Fav: 0 - Even +21.42 - Underdog: +55.15
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Hoppy
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2014, 08:36:37 AM »

Just don't pick Man City as your favourite, at least not in their recent form... Before you know it they have 2 red cards and 9 players... at Home...
 :o
« Last Edit: November 06, 2014, 08:38:30 AM by Hoppy » Logged
ArberPro
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2014, 11:39:16 AM »

If i have a small profit on the arb i put the profit on the big odd.You can also close the arb on 0 profit and do trading with the rest of the free bet you now have.
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okakabukaka
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okakabukaka

Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2014, 10:34:08 PM »

opposite is much logical. underdogs wins in soccer and 1 to 20 is so much profitable than 10 times 1.20 odd but 1,83 to 2,45 not much difference.
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2014, 09:32:39 AM »

Haskovo - CSKA Sofie 0-4 at 65th minute and the home team 1 player down.

BTTS NO @ 1.16
BTTS YES @ 15

I had 70 EUR limits at odd 1.16
A normal arb would bring me 5-6 EUR profit.
I staked all my profits 10 EUR at the high odd , which would give me either 0 EUR if Haskovo would not score , or 70 EUR if Haskovo would score.
Guess what ? Haskovo didn't score 1 goal , they scored 2 :P

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Namnam
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #12 on: November 10, 2014, 11:04:57 AM »

If i have a small profit on the arb i put the profit on the big odd.You can also close the arb on 0 profit and do trading with the rest of the free bet you now have.

I'm a newbie in arbing (and in gambling in general), but I have been doing it for about 1,5 month now. I have focused on bonus hunting from the start, and so far collected about 3500€ which I think is a really nice addition. I have not been focusing only on arbs, but when they appear I of course get an extra profit from them. I feel more and more interested in moving on to actual arbing now though, and the quote above sparked my curiosity. How can I trade with a potential bigger arb on the high odds? Does that mean I "lay" the outcome that the win on the high odds would produce? Please give an example.
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fnatic91
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fnatic91

Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #13 on: November 10, 2014, 11:16:27 AM »

Quote
How can I trade with a potential bigger arb on the high odds? Does that mean I "lay" the outcome that the win on the high odds would produce?

Take a look at my above exmaple.

Firstly i staked 70 EUR @ 1.16 odd  , which gives 11.2 EUR profit

Then stake all the profit 11.2 EUR at the high odd ( I staked 10 eur just to round it)
« Last Edit: November 10, 2014, 11:29:41 AM by fnatic91 » Logged
Namnam
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Re: Profit on the favourite
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2014, 10:01:22 AM »

Then stake all the profit 11.2 EUR at the high odd ( I staked 10 eur just to round it)

By "staking" you just mean that you lay a higher sum than equilibrium (same profit on both sides of the arb) right? Or do you mean that you arb as usual and then take the profit and back a third bet? I'm not sure I follow here... :)
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