Betfair offer

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Namnam
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Namnam

Betfair offer
« on: November 21, 2014, 07:17:54 PM »

Hi! I just got this offer from Betfair exchange, and it feels like I could exploit this somehow!?

"Place Exchange bets on ANY american football, basketball and/or ice hockey matches taking place November 21 - 24
You'll get a 100% refund if you don't make a net profit - up to 2000 kr."
(which is about 200£)

Should I just bet on a low odds bet at an bookie, and hope the lay at BF looses, or how should I do this? Thanks
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2014, 08:13:09 PM »

You could place a bet on high odds at betfair (such as 8 ) and low odds on bookie (such as 1.12). This is a -1.75% arbitrage.
Considering 5% commission, it turns into -2.30%, but guarantees a 140 profit on both sides (betting 200 at Betfair and 1190 at bookie.
Or odds 6 and 1.177 (again -2.3%), betting 200 and 805.



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Namnam
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Namnam

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2014, 08:47:21 PM »

But how does it guarantees a profit? If my high stake at BF actually wins, I just get the -2,3% arb and loose money? Should I not try to get a positive arb instead, and just hope to loose at BF for extra gain?
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2014, 09:09:26 PM »

If you find a positive arb its better, but this is easier (no need to wait for an arb, no need for alert services, less chance of limits, etc).

Do the math with the stakes I suggested.
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Namnam
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Namnam

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2014, 09:15:42 PM »

Ok, so you mean that I can secure a win by adjusting the stakes on the different sites? But I don't really understand how I adjust the stakes to secure the profit regardless of the outcome? So far in my Arb career I have been using calculators for bet/lay or 3-way matched bets, but this kind of bets (more or less a risk free bet, right?) is not covered in these normal calculators If I'm correct? I so to say, don't understand the underlying math in this kind of bet.

A different, but potentially more profitable way would be to just simply bet on a odds around 2 with no matched bet. If I loose, I gain but also loose nothing (stake returned) but if I win, I win it all!
« Last Edit: November 21, 2014, 09:22:48 PM by Namnam » Logged
ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2014, 09:37:49 PM »

I don't know a calculator that considers free bets, I do the math myself. You must bet more on the site that returns the stake and less on the other site.

What do you prefer...
1) 140 for sure?
or
2) 200  or nothing?

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qbet
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Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2014, 09:40:55 PM »


A different, but potentially more profitable way would be to just simply bet on a odds around 2 with no matched bet. If I loose, I gain but also loose nothing (stake returned) but if I win, I win it all!
No, even if you don't want to hedge you are getting the most value by betting on high odds. You are trying to maximize the chance of loosing, as this is when you get a rebate( your stake returned).
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Namnam
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Namnam

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2014, 09:49:01 PM »

I don't know a calculator that considers free bets, I do the math myself. You must bet more on the site that returns the stake and less on the other site.

What do you prefer...
1) 140 for sure?
or
2) 200  or nothing?

Ok, if you put it that way, then sure I prefer the secure profit. BUT, even if I don't need an calculator, I dont understand how to set up my calculation? How to adjust so the profit is secured? Could you or someone show an example with the math explained? :)
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2014, 10:15:48 PM »

Betfair odds: 6 - Commission: 5%
Book odds: 1.177

Assuming you will bet 1180 (just to get nice numbers)
In a calculator you should get
stake 200 (rounded) at Betfair => return: 1.200 (less 50 commission) = 1150
stake 980 (rounded) at bookmaker = > return 1153
In a normal arbitrage you would have lost 30 (return is 1150 and total stake was 1180)
As stake is returned if you lose your first bet, then
- you lose 30 (if you win your first bet) or
- you win 170 (if you win the second bet: 1153 - 980) as 200 were returned

So you know that you win too much if the second bet wins and you lose if your first bet wins. You must place a smaller second bet.
If you decrease the second bet (805 instead of 980)
stake 805 => return 948 (Profit: 948 - 805 = 143)
Profit if you win bet 1: 1150 - (200+805) = 145

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X_Gambler
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Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2014, 10:30:58 PM »

But you cannot further use betfair for American football / basket / icehockey arbing during the remainder of the weekend :D
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dwaynnyt
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Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #10 on: November 23, 2014, 08:33:39 PM »

I always knew that there was a catch for this. It seemed to good to be true. One thing  know is that they don't hand pies just like that.
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Namnam
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Namnam

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2014, 05:44:36 AM »

I always knew that there was a catch for this. It seemed to good to be true. One thing  know is that they don't hand pies just like that.

What was the catch? I am expecting the full refund in a few hours, from 2 arbs and 1 narb, total score plus a few £. If they do pay out, it is a good profit for a day!
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Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2014, 08:11:28 AM »

I received bonus from betfair sometimes even when not fully fulfilled the requirements.... if you generate a few thousand euro volume for that promotion, they might pay up regardless of win/loss. not always though. maybe it was a mistake, who knows.
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Namnam
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Namnam

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2014, 09:06:57 AM »

Worked like a charm! :) I got 200£ (2000SEK) in my account 5 min ago... Sweet! Best promo ever!
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Arbusers
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Arbusers

Re: Betfair offer
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2014, 07:25:23 AM »

I don't know a calculator that considers free bets,


Here you are guys:
http://www.nrbet.com/matched-betting-calculator/#results-part2

You can find some more tools here:
http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,112.0.html
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