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Winning Middles

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X_Gambler
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Re: Winning Middles

Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:23 am

Boston - Miami
Under 196.5 vs Over 195.0 --> ~2% arb

Minnesota (+1.5) - Lakers (ML) --> 1,3% arb
Last edited by X_Gambler on Thu Mar 26, 2015 1:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
swangbat
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Re: Winning Middles

Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:24 pm

Hey guys quick question, If betting an over & under eg, over 102.5 under 103. If the score is 103 does under count also?
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Re: Winning Middles

Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:30 pm

if it is a 2way bet with over 103 and under 103 only available sure the under is void and the over 102.5 wins if it is 3 way like over 103 exactly 103 under 103 no it is like under 102.5. Long story short in the first case you a full bet the second case you arbed (if you did)
Don't speak for something you have no clue.
swangbat
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Apr 26, 2015 2:44 am

'Second one in less than a week! Olympiakos:Unicaja O148.5 U149, result 77:72. Yeah! Few days ago I lost because of void bet, now I got a comeback with this middle! Love middles! Good luck to everyone else too. ;)'

This post sugggests that U149 means 149 & under. Correct?
PepSLO
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Re: Winning Middles

Fri Sep 04, 2015 12:58 pm

Long time ago from last winning middle. One for tomorrow:

Lithuania - Ukraine
Tomorrow, 05 Sep 2015, 20:30

Under 151,5 @1,90
Over 149 @2,19


;D
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Re: Winning Middles

Thu Sep 24, 2015 7:26 pm

First middle of this autumn and it's a nice one
Toulouse v Marseille
Pinn o2,25 @ 5,83
Soft u2,5 @ 1,17
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Re: Winning Middles

Thu Sep 24, 2015 9:48 pm

Basta#ds never seen that one! nice one, i was hoping for New Zealand by 75 or 76 no where near ha! but least won plenty in matchbook! Rugby World cup brilliant still 4 weeks left aswell
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Re: Winning Middles

Thu Sep 24, 2015 10:02 pm

haha they also had New Zealand race to 10 point 1.07 and layed 1.03 stupid fu#ks ha!
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Sep 27, 2015 6:45 pm

Hungary - Turkey, Women's Volleyball
o128,5 @ 2,8 - Unibet
u130,5 @ 1,85 - Expekt
;D
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:09 pm

What was your max bet £2 haha
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Sep 27, 2015 8:29 pm

wibble wobble wrote: What was your max bet £2 haha
looool :P
betcycle
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Oct 11, 2015 2:58 am

I had an interesting middle bet I made by mistake but it could end up being profitable. The middle is in hockey with 2 different rules for overtime.

Bookie A.) Only regulation time is used for the bet.
Bookie B.) Overtime is included in outcome.

The bet is an Asian H bet with -.50 with odds 2.20 with bookie A
and +.75 with bookie B odds 1.98.

The only situation I lose is if Bookie A wins in overtime and I get back about 20% of my bet and lose about 80%.  Every other scenario I win including a middle where Bookie A wins in regular time by 1 goal.

Any insight on whether I should pursue this would be great.  I already tried looking into stats but dont know how accurate they are.  What I found is about 22% of NHL matches go to overtime and then if I make the rough assumption of a 50% chance of either team winning in overtime I have a rough estimate of losing 80% of my bet 11% of the time.  The other 89% of the time is a win but does it more than cover my losses and give a profit?

Thanks!
Last edited by betcycle on Sun Oct 11, 2015 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
Alfa1234
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Oct 11, 2015 2:14 pm

You would need statistics on the % of games that finish with exactly 1 goal difference to be able to calculate this.
betcycle
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Re: Winning Middles

Sun Oct 11, 2015 4:03 pm

I have had a little trouble finding these stats.  What I did find was that in 2014 there was 27 out of 30 teams that had an average total goal difference for the season of less than 1 goal (All goals for - vs goals against).  Im not sure if this statistic is enough to impliment this strategy.  Below is the link for the statistics.  I think there will be a high variance for this - my first bet I had the worst scenario hit where I only got back about 20% of my bet.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-goal-differential-per-game/2014/
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Re: Winning Middles

Sat Oct 24, 2015 6:51 am

What are your thoughts on this?



1.  In the NFL, Is it always a good bet taking -2.5 and +3.5 both ways at -110 to hit the middle?  Thus you are basically getting 20 to 1 on it landing on 3?  I had read that you do this every time if given the opportunity.  I know 3 and 7 are most important number in the NFL.  So obviously -6.5 and +7.5 with -110 both ways is an auto bet?  What about its another number like 9.5 and 10.5?  I assume if its say +7 and -6.5, that isn't worth it since its not really a middle?  Thus only thing is if it lands on 7, then you push one bet and win the other but laying -110 both ways is always bad right?


2.  What about CFB same scenario?  Obivously the 3 and 7 doesn't matter as much. 


3.  Is it a waste of trying to hit a middle on some game where one bookie offers say total of 60.5 on a college football total and another bookie offers 61.5?  Obvioulsy that would be bad bet trying to middle it.  But what if its say 60.5 and 62?  What about nba totals?  And what point is it worth it to middle?

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