« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2015, 05:28:13 PM »
in the long run you don't profit on bets on low odds, you profit on bets on value odds = VALUE BETS
the value bets are where true probability of an outcome is higher than the probablility derived from the odds (1/odds). in other words you're getting better price for fixed probability. in the long run that creates VALUE.
in most cases you get value bets at soft books. that's why in the long run you always win on soft books and lose at sharps.
therefore it makes sense to set an arb so that the whole profit is stored on the soft book side (value side of arb). this is not necessarily the side with lower odds.
however, the real question is how long the long run really is
the "short" periods when you're winning at sharps may be surprisingly long
some people made some tests and published their results at the forum - look for it