putting all profit on one side

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nadal77
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nadal77

putting all profit on one side
« on: March 02, 2015, 02:51:01 PM »

Guys I have read through this forum and it seems some people split theyr arb profit in half or wonder where to put it. I did some math and it seems the highest expected gain in the long run  is always putting all profit on the lowest odds outcome and leaving the other 2 or 1 side to 0 profit. So was wondering if Im crazy or why people dont always arb this way. It seems to me there is absolutely no point in splitting profit in any way in an arb.
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pescu23
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Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2015, 02:53:55 PM »

Hi nadal77,

In my experience, the best you can do is balance your bets to win all the profit in the highests odds.

People arb this way all the time you are not crazy.

Happy arbing!
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vinciguerra
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Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2015, 03:07:01 PM »

Guys I have read through this forum and it seems some people split theyr arb profit in half or wonder where to put it. I did some math and it seems the highest expected gain in the long run  is always putting all profit on the lowest odds outcome and leaving the other 2 or 1 side to 0 profit. So was wondering if Im crazy or why people dont always arb this way. It seems to me there is absolutely no point in splitting profit in any way in an arb.

your math is off, your type of arbing means you usually bet low odds at soft books or (very very likely) your sample is simply too small.  if the lowest odds show a profit, why arb at all and not just bet the lowest odds without hedging?   
if you don't want to balance, put your profit with the soft book.  good luck finding out what the soft book is though, not always as easy as you think.
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nadal77
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nadal77

Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2015, 03:46:03 PM »

What I am saying is odds represent probability of outcome. So you can do 1 over odds and calculate the percentage of the outcome of this event. So in the long run why not just put all of the profit on the highest percentage probability of ocurring meaning lowest odds. I did the math and this way leads to higher profits in the long run than any other way. What I was looking for is someone to say I suck at math cause I have not really seen this recomendation before stand out as a clear winner and I am wondering why.

Vinci to reply to you lowest odds dont show a profit on theyr own by simple betting in the long run, what I am saying is putting all profit of arbs on lowest odds instead of all on highest odds or splitting them however you like leads to higher expected profits in the long run mathematically.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2015, 03:50:16 PM by nadal77 » Logged
vinciguerra
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vinciguerra

Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2015, 05:18:40 PM »

Vinci to reply to you lowest odds dont show a profit on theyr own by simple betting in the long run, what I am saying is putting all profit of arbs on lowest odds instead of all on highest odds or splitting them however you like leads to higher expected profits in the long run mathematically.

No it doesn't.  Putting it all on the short odds will make you win more often, but less per time you win. Putting it all on the underdog will make you win less, but more per time you win. All other things being equal, long term it doesn't increase (or decrease) expected profit either way.
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umbertobet
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umbertobet

Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2015, 05:25:58 PM »

What I am saying is odds represent probability of outcome. So you can do 1 over odds and calculate the percentage of the outcome of this event. So in the long run why not just put all of the profit on the highest percentage probability of ocurring meaning lowest odds. I did the math and this way leads to higher profits in the long run than any other way. What I was looking for is someone to say I suck at math cause I have not really seen this recomendation before stand out as a clear winner and I am wondering why.

Vinci to reply to you lowest odds dont show a profit on theyr own by simple betting in the long run, what I am saying is putting all profit of arbs on lowest odds instead of all on highest odds or splitting them however you like leads to higher expected profits in the long run mathematically.
you need to rethink twice casue you are saying somethnig veyr stupid
of course the more probability you have the more likely the event occur
but you forget the odds that are the reciprocal of probability so lets 80% of success means you will get odds of 1.25 so i naverage you will win 4/5 outcomes
profit on one side means anything, if you believe in putting profit on one side so why not backing just soft odds without using sharp books?
value betting has sense only in the long run (in an infinite time) no one can have the guarantee to be in profit just picking soft lines
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drsh1
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Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2015, 05:28:13 PM »

in the long run you don't profit on bets on low odds, you profit on bets on value odds = VALUE BETS

the value bets are where true probability of an outcome is higher than the probablility derived from the odds (1/odds). in other words you're getting better price for fixed probability. in the long run that creates VALUE.

in most cases you get value bets at soft books. that's why in the long run you always win on soft books and lose at sharps.

therefore it makes sense to set an arb so that the whole profit is stored on the soft book side (value side of arb). this is not necessarily the side with lower odds.

however, the real question is how long the long run really is :) the "short" periods when you're winning at sharps may be surprisingly long :)
 
some people made some tests and published their results at the forum - look for it
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PoisonDart
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Re: putting all profit on one side
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2015, 08:13:33 PM »

there seems to be a misunderstanding by Nadal here. odds = odds ALWAYS. This is in a perfect world without vig. In that hypothetical world you'll get 0% ROI over a large number of bets (if you don't count compounded interest..) wether you bet on a 1.01 or an 11.

What adds an edge in the long term is value i.e. Implied probability plus some base points on top. Also wether odds are an accurate prediction of the observed probability in a certain market or whether there is a certain standard deviation needs to be researched market by market.
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