Trading question

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Arboman
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Arboman

Trading question
« on: April 16, 2015, 01:16:21 PM »

Ok here is my logic, if a price is higher than the other bookies I use, and higher than the exchanges, the market should react by taking it and dragging it down. So because the price is good people come in and bet on it until it falls.
Now I often see prices falling slowly and by the time I am ready to react one bookmaker changes their odds. This is how I miss opportunities... so I took a small arb thinking it has to go down in the next 30 min..... Here is the million dollar question , why doesn't it fall? In fact it even rose by a few points and now I can either exit at a small loss or wait more....
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Thordin
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Re: Trading question
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2015, 01:30:24 PM »

if only we could predict the future...
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: Trading question
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2015, 01:42:19 PM »

Ok here is my logic, if a price is higher than the other bookies I use, and higher than the exchanges, the market should react by taking it and dragging it down. So because the price is good people come in and bet on it until it falls.
Now I often see prices falling slowly and by the time I am ready to react one bookmaker changes their odds. This is how I miss opportunities... so I took a small arb thinking it has to go down in the next 30 min..... Here is the million dollar question , why doesn't it fall? In fact it even rose by a few points and now I can either exit at a small loss or wait more....

The market reacts to many things.   Team news, Injuries, weather conditions etc etc

Big money bets by big players move lines!

On big events I dont think the markets are bothered at all if a soft book prices up badly and creates and arb. Until the soft book pulls their odds and the market will soak up our arb bet layoffs all day long if necessary without moving 1 pip!!
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Never trust a goose!!!
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