Weird betfair pattern!

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anormal1992
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anormal1992

Weird betfair pattern!
« on: April 29, 2015, 03:41:01 PM »

Sup everybody. Something weird happend to me at betfair today. Layed a horse on odds 2.62. The liquidity was low so i decided to lay the half of total stake some minutes before race. When i got to the event i was surprised to see that (odds has droped a lot)  my previous bet was matchedon lower odds... odds 2 instead of 2.7. I was pretty sure my bet was matched on 2.7 so this was pretty weird. Luckly it was a lay bet so better for me. Did this happend to somebody else ? Thnx in advance.
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fishfeed
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fishfeed

Re: Weird betfair pattern!
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2015, 06:16:17 PM »

That looks like a horse was declared a non-runner and withdrawn from the race.
Every time that happens a reduction factor is applied to all bets matched prior to the withdraw.

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Cash
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Re: Weird betfair pattern!
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2015, 07:36:15 AM »

Yep.  Thanks for the tip.  The more I research arbing, the more I realize that the long term key to success is beyond straight up arbing what the program says at the exact time.  We need trading skills.  Skill is the key.  When you have skill, it becomes much closer to actual gambling, taking on the risk of unpredicted line movement.  The bookies don't have reason to ban you...... unless they just happen to be a bookie who bans winners no matter what they bet on.

Also keep in mind that the bookies aren't necessarily sleepy.  Their lines might be a certain way just because more people bet on a different outcome at one bookie.  Maybe.  I don't know.  I'm not a bookie.  Someone with more experience might have better insight on line movement.
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fuzzler
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fuzzler

Re: Weird betfair pattern!
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2015, 04:29:56 PM »

Quote
Every time that happens a reduction factor is applied to all bets matched prior to the withdraw.

I think I saw that one too. It's just puzzles me what they're trying to do.
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