Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague  (Read 3994 times)
MUCHBET
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: 46
Posts: 452


View Profile

MUCHBET

Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« on: September 13, 2011, 06:15:29 PM »

Has anyone an idea of how to use that offer?
on a 0:0 final result unibet refunds all LOOSING bets on correctscore, First GOALSCORER (not Team!), HT/FT-RESULT....

Only thing I could think so far would be to cover all possible scores from 5:0 to 0:5, one of it is unibet (BUT NOT 0:0) - but won't make too much sense, or?

Any other idea???
Logged
dimos8enis
Guest


Email

dimos8enis

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2011, 06:36:43 PM »

cover at unibet
try it at olympiakos -marseille
bet ht-ft
1-1  4.20   23.80  
x-1 6.25    16
1-x 16.00   6.25
2-x 17.00   5.88
2-2 4.40     22.72
x-2 7.25     13.79


88.44 EUR giving you back 100
you only lose if it comes ht-ft 1/2 or 2/1 or ht-ft X with score 1-1 ,2-2 etc
risky strategy i don't know if it worth but i don't think there are many options to take advantage of such a bet


Logged
pol22
Newbie
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 34


View Profile

pol22

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2011, 09:32:58 AM »

compine with the same offer from other bookies
Logged
pol22
Newbie
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 34


View Profile

pol22

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2011, 05:41:33 PM »

sorry , my mistake . I did not bother read the terns cause i  thought it was a usual offer. But this is different... an opportunity in deed
Logged
MUCHBET
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: 46
Posts: 452


View Profile

MUCHBET

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2011, 06:05:34 AM »

cover at unibet
try it at olympiakos -marseille
bet ht-ft
1-1  4.20   23.80  
x-1 6.25    16
1-x 16.00   6.25
2-x 17.00   5.88
2-2 4.40     22.72
x-2 7.25     13.79


88.44 EUR giving you back 100
you only lose if it comes ht-ft 1/2 or 2/1 or ht-ft X with score 1-1 ,2-2 etc
risky strategy i don't know if it worth but i don't think there are many options to take advantage of such a bet
NOT to bet at 2/1 and 1/2 is rather hazardous - I would NOT go that risk!
Logged
dimos8enis
Guest


Email

dimos8enis

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2011, 11:43:56 AM »

it was easy to predict there wouldn't be scored many goals at olympiakos game (final result 0-1)
i believe that the chance of loosing such a combination with a ht ft 1-2 or 2-1 at THIS match could make that bet worth
but there are indeed safer ways to make money and that's why i didn't try it


i think there is also another way to take advantage of such bets

you need betdaq or betfair
you need a match with odds like this
2.80-3.10-2.60
you lay the draw
when the first goal is scored you back the draw at higher odds
the danger is that it might end 0-0  
but if you have a 0-0 insurance you get your stake back
that needs such offers at tradings which include all types of bets not only correct score and ht-ft
Logged
Roald
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 68



View Profile

Roald

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2011, 02:22:10 PM »

Valencia 1-0 @11.00 Unibet / Betfair back @10.00, lay @11.50 (I will take a 11.00 odd for my value calculation)

0-0 @10.00 Betfair.

I think this is a nice valuebet. A 10/110 chance for 1-0 and a 11/110 chance for 0-0.
So if you bet 110 times on 1-0 @11.00, you will have 10 1-0's and 11 0-0's (on the long run, of course)
This means: (10 x 11.00) + (11 times cashback) = 110 + 11 = 121

So your profit will be 11 units for every 110 units staked. A 110% ROI. Just an example to take advantage of this offer.
Logged
pastet89
Newbie
*

Karma: 1
Posts: 2


View Profile

pastet89

Re: Unibet 0:0 "insurance" on Championsleague
« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2013, 10:42:14 PM »

Hello,

Bet365 is offering currently the same offer for ALL soccer games.

I came up with the following strategy:

Back Favorite/Favorite on Bet365 on the HT/FT market.
Now you must find a game which has a 0% arb on the lay market on betfair or at least maximum up to 5% loss on all outcomes, including commision.
On HT, if the score is not 0-0, you accept the loss. This will be in arround 70% of all games (I have a huge database for soccer games and have done some investigation on stats, and believe me, these 30/70 keep overally on all types of games  - with strong favorites or not, in Greece or in Germany, it is realtively the same).

Another filter is to choose a game with max 9-10 odds for 0-0 at Betfair. If 7-8, great.
On HT the 0-0 lay odds will be between 3 and 5, and you divide your stake at Bet365 on this and lay the final stake. For exmaple, if the odds are 4.00, you lay 25 EUR with a 75 EUR liability. (I exclude commision to make calculations easier).

So what do we have now:

1) Case A: game finishes 0-0.
We loose our Fav/Fav bet on Bet365 and we win it on Betfair with a small loss from 0% up to 5%.
Also we loose 75 EUR on Betfair from the 0-0 lay bet.
At bet365 tough, we have our stake refunded (let it be 100), so we have in total 100-75 = 25 EUR profit - the small loss.
2) Case B: game finishes Fav/Fav
We lost our lay HT/FT bet on Betfair and we win it on Bet365. This gives us again a riughly break even.
In the same time we we win our lay 0-0 bet on betfair for 25 EUR.
3) Vase C: game finishes with any other result.
We win the HT/FT bet on betfair, we lost it on Bet365 - close to break even, and we again win the 25 EUR on betfair from the 0-0 lay.

If you chose games with odds of about 8-9 for 0-0 pre-match, you will very likely get 4.00 or less on HT. The lesser, the better. Now, if you  fix the small loss we accept on 5%, we will have roughly:

30 * (25-5)  - (70 * 5) = 600 - 350 = +250 pts NET profit long term from one "opening" bet of 100 pts on Bet365.
But note, this is not 250% ROI! As all the bet amount will be roughly:
100 on Bet365 + maximum liability of 100-200 pts on the lay on Betfair (if odds are 3.00, they are between 2.00 and 3.00), and another 75 pts liability on the lay 0-0 bet.
Total staked (max): 375 pts
Total NET profit: 250 pts
ROI: 67%

But note: it is not easy to find a game with 5% loss as HTFT market has 9 outcomes and therefore huge margin on all bookies (I believe this is the reason bet365 to offer this promotion). If you increase the loss more than 5%, use the above formula to calculate if it still be profitable over the long run. For example, just if we increase up to 10%, we already get a loss long term:

30 * (25-10)  - (70 * 10) = 450 - 700 =-250

It is hard but not impossible to find a games with 5% loss, I even found one with around 4%. I believe this condition will get better on bigger markets where liquiudity makes lay and back odds so close and market so well developed.

Tip: Greek, Cyprus, Poland, all African, Argentinian games, as well as Russian tends to have very few goals.

Good luck!
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print