Gambling

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Chills-22
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Chills-22

Gambling
« on: July 01, 2015, 09:41:54 AM »

Hi Everybody-Sorry if this seems a bit off topic, but there are a lot of smart people in here, who know a lot more about bookmakers for me, and I feel I could get good information of people here that would help me. Before I turned 18, I'd probably lost about £4,000 over a few years, getting older friends to place bets at shops, giong to casinos with fake IDs, having online accounts in my parents' names. Then I turned 18 with about £3,000 left in my bank. Within 2 months my bank account read £165,000. I won bet after bet after bet, I won on rugby, football, cricket. I won ridiculous accumulators, every instinct I had about a game was right. I honestly believed it was a matter of days before my bank read £1,000,000, I flew myself around the world, gambling at airports, gambling in hotel suites, game after game I would win, late goals, comeback wins, it was astonishing surreal. Things turned ugly only when I started playing online blackjack, and going to Casinos. I blew about £150,000 net on blackjack. I stopped gambling when I realised my remaining £50,000 would disappear pretty sharpish. Since though I've been reflecting, was I right to stop sports betting. All my losses were on blackjack, my numbers on sports betting are ridiculous. With a starting capital of £3,000-I turned that into £165,000-that's a 5500% increase in 2 months. Some would say it's luck, but to them I say, I increased my starting stake 55 fold. that means technically I should have had a 1 in 55 chance of doing that-lower in fact, given that bookies take an edge on each outcome. So Maybe my real chances according to the stats were 1 in 100, 1 in 200, 1 in 500. Did I really just luck out on sport, was all my thinking really futile and in the end all that got me up was pure luck? I'm not sure I believe i just got lucky. I don't know what to think-and I'm still only 18, and at a big moment where I"m considering re-starting sports gambling, I am self excluded from places, but I have friends who can bet for me, I have been reading up on arbitrage and you all seem incredibly clever guys, but the laborious and slow burning profitability doesn't appeal to me. I don't want to seem as if i'm just narrating a story, I'd really like input, I can't talk to anyone about it in my real life, I'd appreciate any feedback. Thanks
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Arbusers
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2015, 10:13:50 AM »

if this seems a bit off topic

What are you talking about? This is the place to talk about these things...not the Church.


Did I really just luck out on sport, was all my thinking really futile and in the end all that got me up was pure luck?

You have to explain what tactic you followed in each game and what were the circumstances of your activities during that game. If you prove that indeed there was a mathematical correctly explained tactic then indeed it was advanced gambling and not simple gambling. If not, then it was just gambling.


I can't talk to anyone about it in my real life

I will tell you what real life is. When you convert these chips into hard cash coming out of the ATM, then you are in real life. When you have absolutely no f@cking chance to make any money that would help your life become more decent...then you are not in real life.


Can't stop my self posting this all time classic music.

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Chills-22
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2015, 01:20:01 PM »

I didn't use statistics, or any advanced maths sadly. I used instinct, and years and years of experience of watching lower division English football. I just can't get my head around the success I had, did I really just completely luck out 1 in 100, 200 or even 500 chance. Were my wins on football the equivalent to me getting lucky on roulette say 9 times in a row picking red correctly. It certainly doesn't feel that it was, and I certainly feel that I could continue to have success betting. However feelings and instincts can i suppose be deceptive, and as you say which I 100% agree with, I'm 18 have no job and won't do for many years, If I lose the remaining £50,000-it ain't coming back, that will be that. Cheers!
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Chills-22
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2015, 01:43:14 PM »

For example, in the Copa America, coming into the final round of Group games, I identified that if Peru could avoid defeat against Colombia, they would almost certainly finish 2nd in Group C, giving them a quarter final match against the runners up of Group A-Bolivia. I knew they would be strong favourites in that game. I also knew that even if Peru lost by a goal, there was a high chance they would scrape through as one of the two best 3rd placed teams, and by doing so also qualify for the QF albeit with a tougher fixture against Argentina.


Colombia started the game as 4/6 favourites, but I had a strong feeling Peru were undervalued by the market, quality upfront with Farfan, Pizarro, Cueva and Guerrero. Still, barring a Colombia win by 2 or more goals, Colombia -1 was 7/4-they'd be in the quarter finals. Peru were 150/1 to win the Copa America on Sporting Bet before this game. I placed £500 each way on this 150/1 price, Each Way paid out for finishing 1st or 2nd (reaching the final) at 1/3 of the odds (50/1). So I'd pocket £25,000 if Peru reached the final, and have a free shot at another £75,000 if they could win the final. I wanted to place a larger stake than £500 EW, but that was all Sporting Bet would accept, Peru were 100/1 at most other sites so didn't bother with them.

Notably in the Copa America-there's no extra time, so even though I'd identified a potentially hazardous semi final against Chile, the chance of a draw and a 50/50 shot in a penalty shoot out was in my mind. As it happened Peru drew 0-0 with Colombia, a predictable outcome in a low scoring tournament between two even sides, therefore securing the game I'd hoped against Bolivia. They then thrashed Bolivia 3-1 (3-0 up with a late consolation by Bolivia) and were in the semi final which took placed on Monday against Chile (who had beaten Uruguay in the Quarter Final)-I'd hoped of course for Uruguay to knock them out but some home town refereeing handed Chile the win. So on Monday I was a Peru qualification away from pocketing £25,000.

After some astonishing hometown refereeing, not sending off Chile's best player Vidal for a clear headbutt, and sending off a Peruvian player for nothing, Chile got in the ascendancy. Peru hit the post twice in the first 10 minutes, but down to 10 men Chile took the lead on half time with a goal 5 yards offside. Peru equalised despite being down to 10 men, and looked likely to at least go and get a penalty shoot out, playing well despite being down a man. Out of nowhere sadly, Vargas the chilean, smashed in a wonder-goal from 40 yards. Chile held on to win 2-1.


So my stake was lost, but my point is the bet remained good, there's so much talk that betting's a loser's game, and that no significant value bets exist. Some even say that all the good bets are gobbled up by people using software who detect value, this may be true, and you guys arb successfully clearly, but no one else spotted the Peru bet, according to the oddschecker pie chart of bets placed, Peru had no money wagered on them. I spotted something no one else did, I may be sounding arrogant/delusional so forgive me, and I did end up losing the £1,000 so I can't be that cocky, but I just feel I read sport, especially in tournaments extremely well. I hope whoever reads this has watched the Copa America so they can verify or criticise what I'm saying about Peru-but I just thought I'd try give you an example of how I feel and try to bet. Cheers and sorry for the slightly long rant!
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 01:49:53 PM by Chills-22 » Logged
Archi
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2015, 04:08:01 PM »

Hi, let me share a story from my early trading career,  hopefully you'll learn something of it and won't make the same mistakes I did.

I started with 60 euro and after 4 months I increased my bank to 13 000. Might not seem a lot compared to 165k but if you think about it it's actually more than 5500%. My strategy was very simple: lay lay and lay some more. Every low odds I thought it was value. I was mainly trading WTA matches and especially closed encounters. As soon as a player broke serve I was throwing in a lay bet. If the odds would come in even lower I would lay again and so on. It was a very risky strategy but for a short term it paid off.

Then I had to put a pause to my trading career as I had to leave the country to go in U.S.A  for an inter-exchange program that lasted around 4 and a half months. Every night during my stay in USA I went to bed thinking about how I would return home and build my bank to millions and millions. I didn't spent a cent of my 13k bank just to have higher chances of making quick profit when I return.

Anyway I came home and in less than 3 weeks using the same strategy I blew 12 of my 13k bank. Everything that went so perfect before, turned around. There is no point in expressing what I felt, my dreams were shattered.

If I think about it now, I realize how lucky I was to grow such bank in a short period of time. Also my money management system (if you can call it that) was insanely risky, suicidal.
 
Spotting value is great for any arber/trader/gambler but you'll need a lot more to consistently be in profit.

Also this statement:  ,,but the laborious and slow burning profitability doesn't appeal to me'' says a lot about your experince.

Cheers and good luck.
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f164
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2015, 10:57:32 PM »

Nice story. Free lunch does not exist, sad but true.

Hi, let me share a story from my early trading career,  hopefully you'll learn something of it and won't make the same mistakes I did.

I started with 60 euro and after 4 months I increased my bank to 13 000. Might not seem a lot compared to 165k but if you think about it it's actually more than 5500%. My strategy was very simple: lay lay and lay some more. Every low odds I thought it was value. I was mainly trading WTA matches and especially closed encounters. As soon as a player broke serve I was throwing in a lay bet. If the odds would come in even lower I would lay again and so on. It was a very risky strategy but for a short term it paid off.

Then I had to put a pause to my trading career as I had to leave the country to go in U.S.A  for an inter-exchange program that lasted around 4 and a half months. Every night during my stay in USA I went to bed thinking about how I would return home and build my bank to millions and millions. I didn't spent a cent of my 13k bank just to have higher chances of making quick profit when I return.

Anyway I came home and in less than 3 weeks using the same strategy I blew 12 of my 13k bank. Everything that went so perfect before, turned around. There is no point in expressing what I felt, my dreams were shattered.

If I think about it now, I realize how lucky I was to grow such bank in a short period of time. Also my money management system (if you can call it that) was insanely risky, suicidal.
 
Spotting value is great for any arber/trader/gambler but you'll need a lot more to consistently be in profit.

Also this statement:  ,,but the laborious and slow burning profitability doesn't appeal to me'' says a lot about your experince.

Cheers and good luck.
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nanonoko
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2015, 04:33:11 AM »

Hi Everybody-Sorry if this seems a bit off topic, but there are a lot of smart people in here, who know a lot more about bookmakers for me, and I feel I could get good information of people here that would help me. Before I turned 18, I'd probably lost about £4,000 over a few years, getting older friends to place bets at shops, giong to casinos with fake IDs, having online accounts in my parents' names. Then I turned 18 with about £3,000 left in my bank. Within 2 months my bank account read £165,000. I won bet after bet after bet, I won on rugby, football, cricket. I won ridiculous accumulators, every instinct I had about a game was right. I honestly believed it was a matter of days before my bank read £1,000,000, I flew myself around the world, gambling at airports, gambling in hotel suites, game after game I would win, late goals, comeback wins, it was astonishing surreal. Things turned ugly only when I started playing online blackjack, and going to Casinos. I blew about £150,000 net on blackjack. I stopped gambling when I realised my remaining £50,000 would disappear pretty sharpish. Since though I've been reflecting, was I right to stop sports betting. All my losses were on blackjack, my numbers on sports betting are ridiculous. With a starting capital of £3,000-I turned that into £165,000-that's a 5500% increase in 2 months. Some would say it's luck, but to them I say, I increased my starting stake 55 fold. that means technically I should have had a 1 in 55 chance of doing that-lower in fact, given that bookies take an edge on each outcome. So Maybe my real chances according to the stats were 1 in 100, 1 in 200, 1 in 500. Did I really just luck out on sport, was all my thinking really futile and in the end all that got me up was pure luck? I'm not sure I believe i just got lucky. I don't know what to think-and I'm still only 18, and at a big moment where I"m considering re-starting sports gambling, I am self excluded from places, but I have friends who can bet for me, I have been reading up on arbitrage and you all seem incredibly clever guys, but the laborious and slow burning profitability doesn't appeal to me. I don't want to seem as if i'm just narrating a story, I'd really like input, I can't talk to anyone about it in my real life, I'd appreciate any feedback. Thanks

1) What type of BRM did you use?
2) What what are average odds you used? (2.0?3.0?)
3) Sample Size how many bets did you use?
4) What's your estimated edge?2%? 3%? 10%?

Suppose you had a 52.4% edge. You're breaking even.

Using binomial probability distribution you'll realize that even if you were "90%" correct in your bets , (which is a mythical hypothetical number).

Making 55-fold ROI in 4 months either : you're using 0-bank roll strategy and have all knowing god-like omniscient edge + Full Kelly Betting.

---- Summary---
-Yes you were lucky.

-No making 55-fold your bankroll is not the same as 1/50. -->Unless you made 1 bet on a 50:1 event.
If your argument is that "I only had a 1/100,000 chance of making this much profit, ergo I am skillful"
What does this say about someone who won the lottery? "They won 1 million fold at 1/100,000,000 odds".
If you can't "quantify" your skill/edge, chances are there is none.

-Odds given by bookie are not "actual outcome probability".

- The Best Sports-sharps in the world have something like 5% ROI long-term. I'm talking guys who are either in the shadows or working for the books.


-------------------------------
If You're rethinking sports-betting because:
"Oh look at all these clever guys they are making money maybe I can do the same too!"
 "Oh but I don't want slow and laborious profit".


- Your greed and old habits will tear you to shreds.
Arb- (1.5-4%/ bet)
- Make an account under Fake ID get caught = Lose entire roll.
- Get slightly greedy and misplace a bet = lose entire roll.
- Impatient with loading funds / use expensive payment method = high fee = Eats your profit
- Slip into casino games where you can't exploit an edge? = Lose your roll
------------------------------------------------------------
Do you want to make money? or do you want to Gamble? . The line between these two is so heavily shaded that if you attempt to merge them in any way shape or form you'll forfeit whatever "edge" you think you have.


Don't little early success blind you into overestimating your skill and underestimating your edge. (Dunning Kruger effect)

-
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Chills-22
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2015, 02:49:32 PM »

My bets were always about 10% of my total bankroll, and single bets on games mostly on football, but occasionally on cricket and rugby. I have maybe a delusional perception, but a perception nevertheless that I can read and predict sport incredibly accurately. When I examine this, predicting how athletes will perform is almost impossible-even in individual sports like tennis or golf, let alone in team sports like football. Hence why so many people lose gambling, and the phrase the bookies always win.


I'm torn, I rationalise to myself that I should stop gambling, that I'm kidding myself with wishful thinking about being able to predict the future, but I can't get away from my astonishing sports betting record, my % increase on bankroll achieved in only 4 months after turning 18, I always won fantasy football leagues by a mile, been winning prediction games online since I was about 6. I seriously seriously cannot afford (literally!) for my 50k bankroll to disappear though
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qbet
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2015, 03:04:28 PM »

If you keep on betting 10% of your bankroll every time you will go bust sooner or later, no matter how good your predictions are, assuming you are not a trader-arber.
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pedro
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2015, 04:30:53 PM »

I'm torn, I rationalise to myself that I should stop gambling, that I'm kidding myself with wishful thinking about being able to predict the future, but I can't get away from my astonishing sports betting record, my % increase on bankroll achieved in only 4 months after turning 18, I always won fantasy football leagues by a mile, been winning prediction games online since I was about 6. I seriously seriously cannot afford (literally!) for my 50k bankroll to disappear though
you sound like a degenerate gambler to me
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yikkvu1l.wyx@20mail.it
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yikkvu1l.wyx@20mail.it

Re: Gambling
« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2015, 09:05:59 AM »

nanonoko, ditched poker for arbing?
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RoosterDonky
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2015, 07:37:39 PM »

Awesome sound clip from an awesome movie!!!
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Re: Gambling
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2015, 11:48:55 PM »

One of the best replies I have ever seen Nano!!.
Tip of the cap to ya!
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