some questions/conclusions/thoughts

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batko
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batko

some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« on: August 03, 2015, 03:16:46 PM »

Hi everyone. As a newcomer to the forum and a total newbie in arbing, I'll take the opportunity (hoping nobody is kicking me out :)) to post some questions and conclusions after a couple of days spent in reading this forum and other articles found in google.
I would define myself as a square gambler. I bet only in bet365 for years and I somehow keep my balance positive. I am self controlled in general, however in june and july I lost a total of 1000 eur and I started re-thinking the situation. In other words, I've had enough just feeding on and on a constantly hungry monster. This is how I found this place. I want to slowly get into the matter of arbing. I don't want to annoy you anymore and I will cut to the chase. Here are some of the conclusions I made after gathering some info. Please reply with Yes or No, or in very shorten way to get the whole picture.
1. Always comes the day when soft bookies will limit your account / ban you no matter what, with no specific reason. This is inevitable
2. The bonus scalping is needed to fund your Skrill account, nothing more. What if you just dispose with a large enough capital, and thus not bein suspicious to the bookie
3. You are always suspicious when you always place the maximum bet. Why don't you just put a bet slightly smaller than the max bet (bet 190 units on a 200 units max bet) and thus not bein suspicious to the bookie
4. 1000 eur would be enough for training in arbing
5. Last but not least: I didn't get which "losing strategy" is better - lose the bet you've placed at the sharp bookie and win the one you've placed at the soft bookie , or vice versa?
I would appreciate the response by everyone patient enough to read this long post :)
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pescu23
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pescu23

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2015, 04:56:18 PM »

Hi Batko,

Welcome to the forum and the arbing world. I would like to talk about the point 5. It is should be "better" to lose the bets at the softbookies, because, is suposed, that if you win there you will ring the alarms.

Anyways, loosing on the soft bookies would not make your account lifetime. I've seen lots of times limited accounts without a single bet won.

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RoosterDonky
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Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2015, 06:38:28 PM »

Welcome Aboard!!!
There are 2 schools of thought with point 3.
1 is do they limit you because of bet size or because you're betting on a line just seconds before a change and it just happens to be on the side that a lot of other players are pounding?
I side with the latter and so therefore i bet pretty close to max.
Because if the account is eventually going to get closed anyways, you might as well maximize profits.
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batko
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batko

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2015, 07:00:52 AM »

Thank you both Pescu and Rooster. I still haven't started arbing because I want to have an idea what I'm doing.
I am still not sure what is the bonuses thing helping for. Why 10 registered accounts x let's say 100 eur bonus would be different than +1000 eur in your bankroll/Skrill? Links would be helpful.
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arber_PL
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arber_PL

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2015, 12:08:19 PM »

Thank you both Pescu and Rooster. I still haven't started arbing because I want to have an idea what I'm doing.
I am still not sure what is the bonuses thing helping for. Why 10 registered accounts x let's say 100 eur bonus would be different than +1000 eur in your bankroll/Skrill? Links would be helpful.
I'm not sure if I understood you right, but bonuses are great way to boost your bankroll at the begining. If you get 10x100E in bonuses (nice amount anyway), your bankroll will be twiced (or at least high increased) in few days. With 2000E you can earn 2 times more than with 1000E, at least at the start when you're not limited yet.
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ita.user
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ita.user

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2015, 04:41:17 PM »

Hi!
1.   The day arrives for everything   but remaining on the matter I think you have to distinguish between big soft bookies and tinies
2.   Enjoy bonuses but don’t focus on them
3.   I’m of the school “never the max”
4.   For training, yes
5.   Lose on soft is better than lose on sharp, but usually it happens the opposite situation, just because mainly the soft sides have lines out of the market
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batko
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batko

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2015, 07:46:21 AM »

Hi!
1.   The day arrives for everything   but remaining on the matter I think you have to distinguish between big soft bookies and tinies
2.   Enjoy bonuses but don’t focus on them
3.   I’m of the school “never the max”
4.   For training, yes
5.   Lose on soft is better than lose on sharp, but usually it happens the opposite situation, just because mainly the soft sides have lines out of the market

Thanks ita.user, that pretty much answers my questions!
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samjeffery88
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samjeffery88

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2015, 09:46:44 AM »

1. Yes for sure
2. It is not the bonus turnovers that will alert them, it is your betting pattern. Therefore take all the bonuses you can. Aim should be to maximise profit in shortest possible time as bans can and will come at any time.
3. I don't believe it makes a difference in your example i.e. £190 vs. £200. Again, it is your pattern of betting that will alert them. As per point 2, max bet at every opportunity for profit maximisation. As you have identified, bans will come no matter what, so don't waste time or money being tentative.
4. You know roughly what the returns will be (my ROI was ~9%, including bonuses etc), therefore it is up to the individual to decide what returns they deem to be sufficient - from there the minimum bankroll can be derived.
5. It probably won't make too much difference if you are always hitting these type of lines - but I would always prefer to lose at soft bookie - it may prolong your life expectancy with them, but it certainly won't prevent the ban from coming.

Hope that helps.
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batko
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batko

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2015, 09:38:50 AM »

Thank you Sam.
I don't know if 9% ROI is good or not, it sounds good to me though. Is this on a monthly basis, when you know what bankroll you've started the month with, or this 9% are upon all placed bets?
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samjeffery88
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samjeffery88

Re: some questions/conclusions/thoughts
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2015, 11:16:23 AM »

Thank you Sam.
I don't know if 9% ROI is good or not, it sounds good to me though. Is this on a monthly basis, when you know what bankroll you've started the month with, or this 9% are upon all placed bets?

I'm not sure what the industry average would be: I would suspect that 9% is pretty respectable. Imagine that it would be between 5% and 15% if you are trading in a sophisticated way, allowing for some losses where bets are voided or prices amended etc.

The 9% I refer to, is simply the total profit/total outlay on bets. It is not at all reflective of my starting bankroll. Due to bookie limits, you are unlikely to be able to be placing £1,000s on each bet anyway, so providing you have a decent starting amount (maybe £2k - that's roughly what I started with), you should be good for max betting right from the off. The only other consideration is that you will probably want excess funds so you can manage cash flow better and have available funds whenever you need them, rather than having all your capital tied up.
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