Once again, I agree on the "value" part. This has nothing to do however with the "probable outcome" of the bet. The soft IS always the valuebet, however this does not change the fact that sometimes the probability of a sharp bet winning, is higher.Would you agree if there is an arb between a football match of Gibraltar VS Germany with ods of 1000 in the soft and 1.05 in the sharp, the best way to bet this is to maximise profits in the soft? I wouldn't...odds are too low for Gibraltar in this case.

Quote from: Alfa1234 on September 28, 2015, 01:01:44 PMOnce again, I agree on the "value" part. This has nothing to do however with the "probable outcome" of the bet. The soft IS always the valuebet, however this does not change the fact that sometimes the probability of a sharp bet winning, is higher.Would you agree if there is an arb between a football match of Gibraltar VS Germany with ods of 1000 in the soft and 1.05 in the sharp, the best way to bet this is to maximise profits in the soft? I wouldn't...odds are too low for Gibraltar in this case.Yes the bet will win on the sharp 19 out of 20 times, but when the soft wins 1 in 20 times at 1000 you can have a year off work!! You are not thinking it correctly, Its not about number of wins, its about getting money on at higher odds than they should be. Whether thats at 1.1 or 50 is irrelevant,If you want to follow your short odds strategy, then only bet on arbs when the soft book is offering the favourite and the sharp has the dog.

alfa, i think you got this whole 51% chance thing wrong.Your theory would be correct only if the odds on soft and sharp are the same. 2.10 vs 2.10, 2.30 vs 2.30 etc.Actually not even then, unless you always picked the soft side.I dont think i can explain it properly, but, simply, there goes.You win 51% of your bets on odds average odds 1.5 or you win 40% of your bets on average odds 2.5, second case is a lot more profitable.Do not think about what the odds are, if there are odds offered for an outcome, that outcome might happen. If there is a circa 10% chance, according to the sharp offering odds around 10.00, and the soft bookie is offering odds 30.00+, you take odds 30+ bet. In the long term you will earn more money than putting all the profit on the favourite.On the 1.05 vs 1000 example. Assume total stake of 1000.If you split the profit like the alerts say you got997.95 @1.051.05 @ 1000Profit around 50 euros each side.If you balance for the all the winnings on the low odds and break even on the big ones you have998 @ 1.051 @1000Saved yourself 5 cents!If you put the profit on the 1000 odds you got951.43 @ 1.0547.57 @ 100046,571 profit should the 1000 odds thing happen950 times the normal 49 euro profit you would get from the profit on the low odds.So we would be rich if we had a 1 out of 20 chance for this to happen!Assuming 1.05 are fair odds, what is the chance of them not happening, juice included? Around 1 out of 30 maybe, Im not sure.No matter what the odds, if you put all your profit on the Sharp side, its like straight betting on the Sharp!You just straight bet your balanced arb profit on the sharp side.