Valuebetting

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middler
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middler

Valuebetting
« on: October 22, 2015, 02:39:18 PM »

I have a question for people who practice valuebetting. Would you place a value bet if the event does not start really soon?

If you find an arb, and the event is one day from this moment, you might feel like you have found some value, but there are so many things that can happen before the game starts (injuries, different line ups, weather...), that you don't really control enough variables to state that you have found real value.
Some odd that seems valuable today for a game that is on Saturday, might be awful if you find it jut before the game starts, and vice versa.
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testez
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Re: Valuebetting
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2015, 03:43:28 PM »

everything u said is true, but still - YES
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De Graaf
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Re: Valuebetting
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2015, 12:54:36 PM »

There is a thread on the sbr forum, think tank, filter by views, by Ganchrow. It answers your question in a more technical manner, though not that strict.

In a simple sentence, he makes the case that at any given moment, on average, the opportunity you speak of should be taken.
The collection of knowledge, opinions and angles as a whole at that particular moment is implicit in the lines and any inefficiency i.e arbs are value on at least one side.
Whether this is real value is unattainable and therefore irrelevant, so not worth going into. The only moment when real value enters discussion is the moment it is too late to bet.

This approach does not take into consideration postponement of action which is extremely difficult to incorporate in any large system of probabilities, meaning that people with solid
opinion would postpone action for a further point in time. In general, this is people with very exclusive knowledge or angle.

Your question also depends on personal circumstances. To give an example, there were four matches in Peru primera this morning that I liked. Example is a local shop, gmt +1.
Now three of them are Wednesday evening or Thursday early hours. I could wait since it is an obscure league and swings are enormous in 24 hours, it could be a complete opposite tomorrow. By habit, I'm also guessing that by tonight they will be paid attention by said bookie, they are having a lunch break now but they will come to it. So i have till noon to make a move. This pushes the hand and it is up to you in what league and what circumstances to decide whether to bet or not. So, even though it is mathematically solid, by some account, at any given moment , its your money and your decision if you like to get exposed.

Edit: To give an opposite example, I skip Japanese J2 early. I am not being reasonable about it, just irks me. I have no luck with them. You would think that those are one of the obscure but sharp leagues at the asians.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2015, 01:05:48 PM by De Graaf » Logged
middler
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Re: Valuebetting
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2015, 04:25:48 PM »

Thank you for your reply, and the time taken.
However, I think you are going too far, and talk about smaller and more volatile markets. My question also applies for spanish first division or the NBA.
If there is an arb at any moment in time, it is obvious that you have found value for your investment. But if the event is not any time soon (minutes, maybe an hour), that value is lost if you only bet on one side.
I consider the value if you place the arb, or even if you want to trade, as you are just locking a position, but at the same time, you don't have a solid edge towards the sports event.
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