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2 Suggested Investments

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Author Topic: 2 Suggested Investments  (Read 5521 times)
Arbusers
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« on: December 16, 2015, 04:09:36 PM »

I m very much confident to suggest the following LONG RUN investments.

1. NOBLE ENERGY (NBL) Nasdaq listed, current price at 32.07$.
2. Crude Oil (WTI) Nymex listed, current price at 35.97$.
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Esso
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2015, 08:17:32 PM »

i do not agree with that. the oil market is a very difficult market with in my opionin 4 big actors (opec, russia, usa and iran). because of the coming switch in the next decades from oil to renewable energies this process will go faster and faster every year. this means that every new solar or windenrgypark will substitue oil.

because of this trend especially the opec with the biggest oil reserves (80% of the worlds oil reserves) tries to kick out high cost projects and other competitoirs out of the market (high cost projects: fracking (us), oil sands ,and deepwater drilling) their tactic is to raise their production to get a bigger part of the cake an accumulate market shares to sell their oil in the next years.

other reason are:
- china is switching massivly to renewable energies because of big environmental problems
- oil price was between 1980 and 2000 between 10$ and 40$ and was growing because of speculation i only say "myth of oil peak"
- there have been located a lot new oil fields in the last 10 years (oil will not end in the next 100 years or even more)
- production costs of opec oil are mostly under 10$ a barrel (159Liters)
- worldwide economy is slowing down and maybe will go into a recession next year = less oil well be needed

so even in long run i dont see prices above 100$ again. i think that oil will stay at prices under 50-60$ for the next years. if there will be a recession in the next years we could even see prices under 25$. and this could be a price there a investment into oil could be lucrative.



« Last Edit: December 16, 2015, 08:20:44 PM by Esso » Logged

Pete
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2015, 06:56:24 AM »

This is a very interesting topic. My friend just recently bought the USO ETF and he usually knows what he's doing (he works in an investment company). It remains a gamble, but especially in this forum, people know that gambling is all about EV+.
I personally don't have much to add to this discussion, but I would like to ask members that have a thought-through opinion on this to contribute! It's much appreciated! Thanks :)
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ilovethisforum
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2015, 10:01:11 AM »

I agree that today oil bets are not so good.I will wait for the Syrian war to end.One more thing that i read in an article it said that, Saudi Arabia spends 10 billion dollar per month for goverment and war supporting purposes and that they have the reserves to do that for 5 years!!! I will wait for the reserves to finish.Maybe they will not.
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raizzak
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« Reply #4 on: December 18, 2015, 08:03:03 AM »

Well my knownledge on stock markets is very limited. But have one thing in your head. You will always have risk in any financial market either it is betting or stocks or forex or bonds or w/e. And the only way to beat the markets is to get ahead of them. I read that you wait the war at Syria to end, no shit everyone waits that then the opportunity (if ever there was one) is gone. The general rule to take calculated risks, if you believe you will ever be safe then good luck you will need it...
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Arbusers
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« Reply #5 on: December 22, 2015, 08:56:39 PM »

My analysis on both suggested investments is deep, but here I will present a very simplified way of thinking that I used in order to select them.

About Noble energy. I believe this company has the best drilling hit rate percentage globally. This could be based only on 2 facts. 1st, they use a technique not known to the rest of the industry. 2nd, they are lucky. I find it very difficult that a company of this caliber is based on luck. That means that they have a very effective technique to spot and identify oil and gas fields and that saves them billions of dollars.
Noble takes part in the exploitation of the Leviathan gas field in the eastern Mediterranean sea. This field is gigantic. Earlier this year, the biggest gas field (called Zohr) in the planet was discovered in a nearby sea plot belonging to Egypt. This is a very strong indication that this area is indeed very rich and a treasure could be hidden in a place were Noble already holds rights.
Those around the oil industry know perfectly that it goes together with geopolitics. Noble energy, a US company, already made a deal with a Russian one called Gazprom. That means that there is a deal in the highest possible level. Geopolitics will not be an issue. Turkey's threats are just dog's yapp.

Now about WTI, we see the lowest price of the last 15 years. The Saudis are pumping as much as they can in order to hit fracking and this cause a major damage to US and Russian economies. I believe they will be warned soon to stop flooding the world with their oil, or the dynasty will be history. In front of this clear and present danger, the dynasty will choose to stay alive and allow prices to go higher, to levels where every producer profits.
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raizzak
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2015, 09:55:55 AM »

everything is good but you didn't said if you set a personal target or a point where you should remove your liability
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Arbusers
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2015, 11:44:25 AM »

everything is good but you didn't said if you set a personal target or a point where you should remove your liability

There is a personal target in both investments, but the justification will request a small encyclopedia from me, together with very rare graphs that I m not ready to share. When i see a good exit point I will warn anyone in this thread, no matter how long it takes.
No liability set also. This is a long term investment and you shouldn't look at it as something for a fast profit.
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raizzak
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2015, 11:49:40 AM »

fair enough im covered
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CharlieSheen99
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« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2016, 02:59:01 PM »

Do you have any perspective Arbusers, about when do u have to escape from this investment?? I mean....like when the price is over xxx$, or when any geopolitical things change something that affects oil prices.....i'm asking with no idea about this kind of business, just learning.

Thanks!! ;)
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Arbusers
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« Reply #10 on: March 10, 2016, 05:39:43 PM »

These are both long time investments with no exit point for the time being. There are no stop loss and no cash out points. I will signal the exit point when I see the time is right.
I understand that oil low prices that we see for some time now are a distortion of reality and they must return back to reality again.

I have to tell you some more things about these 2 selections. Most of our members do not have knowledge on geopolitics, so I will try to use simple language.
The US invested a lot of money in fracking. No body knows the amount of money, but my estimations show that 50 to 100% of all quantitative easing went to fracking development. this could be anything between 2.4 and 4.5 trillion (yes trillion) US dollars.
Was this a correct decision from Bush and Obama administration. Definitely yes.
The reason why I say this ''yes'' with no doubt, is because it will allow the US to pull out of the Quincy agreement with the Saudis. The US will be independent from the Saudis and the other gulf states.
This is one of the reasons why the US came to a solution with Iran. This is the reason why the Saudis are pumping like there is no tomorrow. They want to kill the American efforts to become independent.
A success in the fracking experiment is the end of the Saudi monarchy.
In the long run, the US will look to capitalize this huge investment. This is another reason why oil prices will go up. Even if it doesn't work like this, there is the ultimate solution, and that would be a ''kind of war'' within Saudi Arabia, that will persuade the Saudis to stop pumping.
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Rudolpho
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« Reply #11 on: March 10, 2016, 06:04:31 PM »

Did you open positions yourself when the oil was around 30$ level?  :D

Because I know I did buy WTI at 29,7. But also I was planning of going out at 40$ level so now there's something to think about.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2016, 06:06:16 PM by Rudolpho » Logged

Arbusers
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« Reply #12 on: March 10, 2016, 06:41:19 PM »

Did you open positions yourself when the oil was around 30$ level?  :D

Because I know I did buy WTI at 29,7. But also I was planning of going out at 40$ level so now there's something to think about.


http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,3671.msg42565.html#msg42565
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nickolas
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« Reply #13 on: March 10, 2016, 06:55:45 PM »

According to Goldman oil prices will trade in the 20-40 dollar range. When Goldman talks, you better listen (the same goes for Soros, whenever he chooses to speak* and Krugman).
So if you bought close to 30$ you may start monetizing your gains. What kills oil is electrification of transport. Right now batteries are close to 150wh/kg in density, but by 2020 Samsung to name one company claims it will reach or exceed 300wh/kg. When this happens we will see a massive move to electric cars. The Saudis fear that if they don't pump now, their oil will stay forever in the ground, so it is now or never.

This by the way hurts Noble as well. I am not well informed about them but I think the plunge in energy prices has hurt the profitability of the Israel rig. If memory doesn't fail me the original agreement with Israel is not profitable at current prices.


*In 2008 at the beginning of the crisis he was asked what will the currency movements be. He said he knew precisely what will happen but could not share it at the time. The bastard knew the dollar will rise because of the flight to safety.
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Rudolpho
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« Reply #14 on: March 10, 2016, 06:58:07 PM »

Did you open positions yourself when the oil was around 30$ level?  :D

Because I know I did buy WTI at 29,7. But also I was planning of going out at 40$ level so now there's something to think about.


http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,3671.msg42565.html#msg42565


Oops, sorry. Didn't check the date of post.
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