Value betting - bankroll system

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Zestion
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Zestion

Value betting - bankroll system
« on: December 18, 2015, 02:58:32 AM »

I am doing value betting for some time but I am not quiet sure about a optimal bankroll system for my purpose. Of course there are many different systems but I would appreciate it a lot if you guys might be able to recommend me some suitable bankroll systems for value betting. 

Thanks a lot
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raizzak
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Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2015, 07:54:45 AM »

I'm not sure i undestand what are you asking
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Alakagom
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Alakagom

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2015, 12:35:03 AM »

Flat staking. Between 1-2%.

If you base your picks on your thoughts/analysis etc flat staking is definitely the best way.

When flat staking isn't optimal is when you use computerized system that can actually create probabilties and judge every aspect of the game and safely determine its own probability, then you can adjust.

( this is if you meant by value betting actually betting on value games )
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De Graaf
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De Graaf

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2015, 10:50:34 AM »

An alternative can be to use a "To Win" Amount.
You set this amount to say 2 or 3% of your bank and adjust your stake for every bet to that fixed spot. This is a variation of the fixed stakes which takes into consideration the actual probability (still implicit) of the outcome. So in effect you will stake more, but within that margin, on short favs and stake less on the dogs.
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testez
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testez

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #4 on: December 26, 2015, 12:01:19 AM »

there are some nice VB guides on the forum with tones of very useful info.

if u just starting this, go for flat stakes and dont bet more then 1% on a bet(i strongly advice not to go that high,but most ppl here accept 1% as okish.)
whats imp ab vbeting is that u will hit bad streaks.u will have losing months sometimes...u have to be able to suck it up and move on.

most of the things u should be interested in regarding this matter can be found in other VB threads.
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telephoneuser
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telephoneuser

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #5 on: January 02, 2016, 08:07:37 AM »

I've done alot of research about this, and i wanted to post yesterday as a reply to help you, but I wasn't sure If I should create an account yet, and today I found myself roaming around this website and saw your post again. So here I am, with an account and replying!

Theoretically, the optimal answer is "Kelly's criterion", however, It would be stupid to use it in full.

Here you can find the calculator (http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/)

Why is it stupid ? because

The percentage you will get is very very high, you should at most use half the percentage you get there.
There are many reasons to this.

why?

First- because you are assuming the valuebet % you have is the right %, no error at all. To be safe, If you have some error, Kelly's criterion would give you a lower percent, so It's better to bet less than risk more.


Second- Because If you bet half kelly , you make 75% of your profit compared to 100% profit if you had bet full kelly %. While if you bet double kelly you get 0%. So it's better to bet less, even if it's half or quarter, than double !

I am glad I finally was able to help you.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 09:52:04 AM by telephoneuser » Logged
davidelliott52
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davidelliott52

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2016, 02:19:10 PM »

say your value betting bank is £2000 and you used 1% so went with £20 per bet. If a value bet come up but you were only allowed to stake say £8 would you still place it or would it mess up the system if you have a strict set of rules to follow? Personally I would always take it and having a fairly big bank for value betting most of my bets limits are well below 1%.
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qbet
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qbet

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2016, 05:39:48 PM »

say your value betting bank is £2000 and you used 1% so went with £20 per bet. If a value bet come up but you were only allowed to stake say £8 would you still place it or would it mess up the system if you have a strict set of rules to follow? Personally I would always take it and having a fairly big bank for value betting most of my bets limits are well below 1%.
No. It's supposed to be messy! The real problem is over-betting.
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davidelliott52
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davidelliott52

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2016, 06:54:45 PM »

what do you mean by overbetting? surely you would take as many bets as humanly possible as that is where the value is?
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qbet
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qbet

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2016, 07:18:12 PM »

what do you mean by overbetting? surely you would take as many bets as humanly possible as that is where the value is?
Betting big.
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shmotka
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shmotka

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2016, 09:14:56 AM »

which bookies u choose?
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davidelliott52
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davidelliott52

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2016, 05:38:43 PM »

I use any that give me an arb with either matchbook pinnacle betfair or sbo bet so long the sharp odds have liquidity and are not out of line at all
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Zestion
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Zestion

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2016, 03:11:11 AM »

Flat staking. Between 1-2%.

If you base your picks on your thoughts/analysis etc flat staking is definitely the best way.

I agree that Flat staking of 1% makes perfectly sense but I am not quite sure how to handle high odds. Let's say for example a odd of 5.00 (decimal) is regarded as high. So you guys would recommend to use the 1% for all different odds ranges (1.01-1.000 and higher)?

Based on my experience I do feel that it might even be more useful to take more risk on "high odds"( 2% stakes) between odds of 5.00-15.00.

So I am really interested in your opinions!
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2016, 04:07:00 AM »

With odds 15 and 2% of your bankroll on each bet, it's quite possible that run out of money before winning a single bet.
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nickolas
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nickolas

Re: Value betting - bankroll system
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2016, 05:39:35 AM »

The higher the odds, the lower your betting stake.
Target for winnings as a percentage of your bankroll, it should work better.
I mean calculate your stake so the winnings are, say 2% of your bankroll. So for odds of 5,00 in this example you should bet 0,4% of your bankroll. For odds of 2,00 1% etc.
If you do the opposite, it will be a rollercoaster and you may end up on the wrong side of it.
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