"Predicting" surebets

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denasek
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denasek

"Predicting" surebets
« on: December 19, 2015, 02:43:06 PM »

Hi guys,

Not sure if I found the proper forum but I think you guys can help me. Basically I am looking for some kind of service which will allow me to take a profit from ability of predicting closing prices. Let me explain that by using an example:

There is a match with following odds 1 day before kick off: (pinnacle odds)

2,05 - 3,31 - 4,25

I can predict that visitors will drop to 4.0. By backing this team on Betfair with odds 4,25 and laying at 4.0 with stake 1000 euro and commission 5% I can earn about 60 euro on this trade. But the problem is obviously liquidity (and I cant make this trade at the day of the game when liquidity increases because I am confident that in the day of the game odds already will be lower than 4.25)

So what can I do? I can "make" a surebet by betting for example on Pinnacle visitors on 4.25 and backing other selections (home side and draw) once visitors drop (so for example with new odds 2,17 - 3.35 - 4 and again stake of 1000 euro on 4.25 I can make a surebet with around 23 euro of profit - which is much less than by making a back/lay trade).

Yesterday I found out about betting brokers. This would allow me to find even higher odds than on Pinnacle and to "create" bigger sure bet but it's still not such a good option as back/lay on exchange. Does any broker offer "hedging" feature or "cash-out" similar to bet365 but with taking into consideration available prices in exchanges and all asian bookies? Maybe there is any betting broker with access to for example some asian exchanges which offer higher liquidity than Betfair on some markets?

Basically my question is, how can I benefit from ability to predict price movement on lower liquidity markets on Betfair (but keep in mind these markets have enough liquidity in asian bookies to bet even 1000 euros one day before the game).


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GrayFox
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GrayFox

Re: "Predicting" surebets
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2015, 06:11:06 PM »

make the back bet at an asian first where you can see the liquidity.
later lay at the best price available at betfair ( the dropped one you predicted). even if there isn't liquidity at that moment when you place the bet, the "sharks" will come to buy your price whatever the case.
traders, arbers lurk.
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janajana
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janajana

Re: "Predicting" surebets
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2015, 08:00:11 PM »

If I were clever enough to predict price moves, I would never hedge this bets.
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kustef
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kustef

Re: "Predicting" surebets
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2015, 10:12:24 PM »

If I were clever enough to predict price moves, I would never hedge this bets.

If you can beat closing lines you really dont need to cover it. Its value bet and sooner or later you will get higher profit like when you cover it (do surebet)
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Alakagom
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Alakagom

Re: "Predicting" surebets
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2015, 12:08:55 AM »

Not necessarily, variance is a bitch. You could beat the line 10 times and loose 10 times in a row, even after 100 bets you could be negative, it's only after 1000 bets or so the convergence shows. But of course if you can beat the line by that much, you should bet clearly and don't bother arbing..just saying 100 bets of beating line could still yield negative result if variance is a bitch.
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