Basketball trading

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Arbusers
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Basketball trading
« on: January 16, 2016, 06:14:32 PM »

I mentioned several times that trading on Basketball is a nice source of income. My estimations show that most trading opportunities come from Horses, Football, Tennis and Basketball, with this order. Many would disagree and could happily add more markets, or change the order presented above. Feel free presenting your views.
Horse trading is very intense and makes my heart beating fast. Many times i find my self in agony, sweating while sitting on the chair. The competition is very hard and you have to deal not only with humans, but with a large number of bots as well. Some times I feel that some markets are corrupted. These are just some of the reasons why I don't like this market for trading.
Football, offers a limited number of tricks and the potential profit is limited, because of the length of the game and the curves that odds follow from 0 to 90 minutes. Therefore, the payback here is not that much according to my opinion.
Tennis is a great game to trade. Many, I mean many, members of our forum are trading on Tennis. Also, this is a game I love to watch, especially big games of the grand slam. For a reason, I always postpone my avocation with this sport. Maybe because specialization requires that you focus on a limited number of markets.
Now, I wanted to talk about trading on Basketball. I know that the number of our members trading on Basketball is increasing lately. I will mention some of the aspects in regards to this market. Call them food for thought, or reasons to post.
1. I noticed that games between teams of the same strength are offering many chances for trading. When a team is very weak, this is a sign that chances will be limited.
2. Avoiding corrupted and small markets is a good idea. Liquidity is needed, so you don't find your self holding liabilities.
3. Big markets are always better. Spanish, Italian, Greek markets are the best to focus on. NBA is an even bigger market as we all know, but there are 2 reasons why I wouldn't focus on this market:
a. Score differences are not big, compared with the European markets.
b. The competition is much harder making more mild the ups and downs of the markets, and therefore reduce opportunities and profits. Also, bots might be an issue here as well.
4. Watching the games of 3-4 teams is a good idea. You need to have some experience here so you notice crucial details. For example, team A has no endurance when playing in the extra time and this could be exploited by team B, who has more endurance, even though with older players. A very characteristic situation this year, was the game PAOK v Olympiacos, that went to extra time. Olympiacos had much older players compared to PAOK, but in the end they took the game easily. What I m trying to say, is that knowing the plus and minus of some teams will always help you predict the way a game could unfold. Many times these details are not integrated in any odds compilation system, not to mention fellow traders.
5. When I see big score differences in the 1st or 2nd periods, that is a nice catch. Most probably they will pay me. For example, a 15 points difference before the end of 2nd period is a good sign for a trading opportunity.
6. It is very important to set your stop losses and the limit of profit that you are looking for in each market. I m leaving this issue with no answer, or hint, so we all keep our brain spinning and the pro's don't accuse me for spoiling their business.
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GrayFox
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2016, 07:25:10 PM »

im also trying to figure out more things about basketball trading lately.
sweating & warming my own hands also for the seconds i wait to close my bets. Not a good thing i have to say. Crazy ups& downs.
Some days end with hundreds on profit & others somehow bad.
you have to be really careful & spot on how every bookie moves the odds on specific minutes so you decide to take the trade or no.
that needs accuracy & much more knowledge than placing 200 trades only.

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Skaggerak
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2016, 10:51:03 AM »

I've been looking for trading edges for a little while now and it's a real chore, the dedication and nerve you need to capitalise on markets is something that takes constant scrutinising. I like Tennis and look at the main markets every now and then. I can't compete with the speed of market movements right now though. It interests me how much bots are spoken regarding this activity because they seem like a way to make consistent profit. I feel like arbing has thought me a lot more about market pricing and variance and am trying to use that to progress. I'm hoping that if I find some small angles in trading I can maybe comeback to a more advanced sort of arbing and succeed back there again, its not worked out for me lately so I'm readjusting to that.
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Andy
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2016, 11:59:06 PM »

Trading is simple: Just sell volatility

And WOM does matter, regardless of what people say. Yes, it can be spoofed, but genuine WOM is a key indicator to a market move.

For immediate value, try laying at market crossover points, so where price increments change, like if you lay at 3.0,
and the market moves against you, it goes to 2.98, but if it goes with you, it goes to 3.05. You're already in a value position.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2016, 12:21:26 AM by Andy » Logged
MUCHBET
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2016, 05:20:20 AM »

Q: What is "WOM" ?

thx
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whitesnake
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2016, 07:19:28 AM »

weight of money
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Arbusers
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2016, 07:40:31 AM »

genuine WOM is a key indicator to a market move.

You must be able to separate genuine from fake WOM. In most occasions this is possible, but there are situations when money is masked.
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whitesnake
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2016, 08:47:13 PM »

if basketball  markets change faster due to the very often scored points, would it be worth scalping these markets?
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KC83
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2016, 04:25:54 PM »

Hi! I would add to your list of leagues euroleauge as well.  found trading basket profitable as well but unfortunately I have problem with stop loss and I am still greedy:) Last week example, I could cash out 80 pounds but I let trade run with 2.2 sec to the end it was draw at this time, both teams took time so I had plently time to cash out but I wanted more money in ET and ... Orlando Magic score in last sec. Lost 150 pounds. When You trade basketball there is one in my opinion important factor. Number of fouls in quarter and ability to score free throws. It can be important in last quarter especially.
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bingo
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #9 on: February 14, 2016, 09:12:58 PM »

genuine WOM is a key indicator to a market move.

You must be able to separate genuine from fake WOM. In most occasions this is possible, but there are situations when money is masked.

What are the signs of masked money?
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Andy
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #10 on: February 16, 2016, 02:45:45 PM »


[/quote]

What are the signs of masked money?
[/quote]

Fake money usually sits out of the traded prices, so if something is trading at 2.0 to back and 2.02 to lay, you may get heavy volume at 2.04 or 2.06. This would be in the case of that person trying to manipulate the market in a downwards direction. The big volume you see just outside of the current trading prices will also quickly disappear if the price moves up to make that price the new current traded price.

People who manipulate the market dont want their money matched, they just want to give the impression of the market moving in one direction or the other. As soon as there is a risk that their money will get matched, they will pull it out of the market.

So, look for big volumes just outside of the current trading prices, that suddenly disappears.
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bingo
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Re: Basketball trading
« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2016, 12:03:23 PM »

Thank you!
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