assuming a situation with 50-50 chances, odds at bookmaker 1.95, best lay odds at exchange 2.05 equals 1.95 odds.So you bet $100 on X at the bookmaker and $110 on Y at exchange.When X wins, you have $100x1.95=$195 minus $210 investment = -$15When Y wins, you have $110x1.95=$214.5 minus $210 = +$4.5They each win 50% so your average return is (-15+4.5)/2 = -$5.25

It's a kind of martingale I suppose, but based on the premise you'll eventually lose at the bookie hence win at the exchange.

Quote from: Alfa1234 on February 13, 2016, 09:55:13 AMIt's a kind of martingale I suppose, but based on the premise you'll eventually lose at the bookie hence win at the exchange.It is a martingale, and the longer you do it the more you lose.Cristi gave a good explanation, if you want to adjust the stakes do it on his formula and you will see that the -5.25 will just decrease even further.And that is your probabilistic return, well in this case loss, and thats how you should calculate. Everytime you make a bet, you lose that amount, your base line. Actual return will differ. Luck / variance will fluctuate this result, give it ups and downs but regression to the means will be dragging it towards it and the more you bet, the closer the number will be to your probabilistic return.

So guys I was thinking. The premise of every bookie out there is, they want a balanced book and have an average juice of 4 to 12% right?

Basically, without value betting, any punter will eventually lose money as the bookie has a mathematical edge. Unless you start analysing games etc etc it is a given you'll lose money eventually.

So, if you "randomly" bet on games without taking the odds into consideration, eventually you'll bust your account if you just keep betting long enough. You could have a pretty long lucky streak...but eventually you'd bust. Correct? I believe there is no mathematical or logical way that could "not" happen.

What if you were to lay every random bet you take at the soft bookie at an exchange, no matter what lay odds, arb or no arb,

and just add 10% to your stake every time + add the juice of the bookie to your lay stake? Would this, long term, not make money or is my math on this flawed somewhere.

You lose money at the bookie, which is a given.

So that makes you win money at the exchange in the end...right?