football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"

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nickolas
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nickolas

football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"
« on: March 09, 2016, 08:30:30 AM »

Has anyone tried that? Supposedly they have found a model to capitalize on market inefficiency due to human irrational behaviour (heuristics)
Is it any good?
http://www.football-data.co.uk/profitable_betting_system.php
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2016, 05:01:36 PM »

Arbing much more profitable, and no risk and bankroll swings/depletion.
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De Graaf
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Re: football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2016, 11:48:36 PM »

Has anyone tried that? Supposedly they have found a model to capitalize on market inefficiency due to human irrational behaviour (heuristics)
Is it any good?
http://www.football-data.co.uk/profitable_betting_system.php


I can sort of put a good word.
The guy that owns the page and did the legwork has been around for 10 + years in the domain, does a lot of analysis. (no betting, if you take his word)
What brings income to his table(sort of his words) is affiliates, which is obvious from the link you mentioned.
A lot of analysis has been done on tipsters (tipping service), since he is having a proofing service.(think he aborted recently)
The point of this conjecture is the following: My guess is that the thing you linked would not be there if it was complete rubbish. Whether it is old and stands the test of time, I don't know.
Contact the guy, my guess is you'll get some straight answers.
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Chipmunk
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Re: football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2016, 03:15:37 PM »

The essence of this is using pinnacle odds to calculate implied probablity, with the key element of pretty precise adjustments for favourite-longshot bias (which is certainly a well-known and genuine phenomena).

No magic in it really, it's basically the same as arbing, except he only bets the soft side. This makes perfect sense: when you arb vs pinnacle, you are placing two bets, +EV at the soft book, and -EV at pinnacle. Removing the latter is inevitably more profitable longterm, assuming you stake correctly.


The problem is the same as arbing: getting limited.
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nickolas
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Re: football-data.co.uk "profitable betting system"
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 11:28:34 PM »

This sounds very interesting!

I wish I could read it!
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