Are opening or closing odds sharper?

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nickolas
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nickolas

Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« on: April 30, 2016, 12:13:13 AM »

In theory, the closer you get to the game the sharper the odds. You get more information as time goes by, and the market has all the time to adjust.
On the other hand, opening odds in general are the work of carefull analysis from a group of specialized people (the bookies) that have far more information than the average punter. They should be as good an informed guess can be. Maybe the market (with the average punter far below in skill and knowledge than the bookies) just skews this initial line in a random direction giving softer final odds.
Pinnacle states that their closing odds are the sharpest. But is this true for all markets?

PS It could be easy to get an answer if someone had opening and closing odds, as well as actual outcome in excel format. I can work it out using the Brier score, that meassures the effectiveness of a prediction.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2016, 01:34:15 PM »

Closing Odds.
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RoosterDonky
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Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2016, 06:38:15 AM »



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middler
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middler

Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2016, 07:38:21 PM »

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/what-distinguishes-winning-from-losing-players?dvc=d&ito=twitter&aup=True
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2016, 09:06:29 PM »

Closing odds have been adjusted by the betting market which makes them more accurate.
Opening lines are more of a guesstimation.
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2016, 03:34:05 PM »

Another article from Pinnacle regarding this subject

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/educational/why-pinnacle-doesnt-close-or-limit-accounts
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: Are opening or closing odds sharper?
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2016, 05:07:19 PM »

Just opened that this morning, good reading!
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