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(negative)middles

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maletaja
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« on: August 13, 2016, 12:17:14 PM »

Is it possible to say how valuable are middles? Basketball,handball,football
for example 0% surebetting, but offers over 145.5 under 155.5. What are the odds that result "hits 155"
« Last Edit: August 13, 2016, 12:21:17 PM by maletaja » Logged

antemartic
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2016, 10:40:59 PM »

Is it possible to say how valuable are middles? Basketball,handball,football
for example 0% surebetting, but offers over 145.5 under 155.5. What are the odds that result "hits 155"
for example australia serbia have 1.95 for over 164.5 and 1.95 for under 164.5. from pinnacle odds it's easy calculate odd for exacly 164 points. add juice to over 163.5 and for under 165.5 and you get 1.9 and 2. if place midd for these you will get odd 38 for exacly 164 points
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barbero
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« Reply #2 on: August 28, 2016, 03:13:56 PM »

question here is how to calculate the juice, isn't it? are we sure it's always applied by the bookie proportionally for both legs? always?

Case 1: bookie estimates 50% chance of team A winning, 50% chance of team A not winning. fair odds 2 and 2. with 95% payout, bookie odds 1.9-1.9. ok

Case 2: bookie estimates 10% chance of team A winning, 90% chance of team A not winning. fair odds 10 and 1.111111. with 95% payout, what are bookie odds? can we even tell for sure from this info?
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my_username
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 10:50:19 AM »

you can set a range. with only 5% juice info you can't tell which side they shift too. you can find a range though.
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maletaja
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 12:50:15 PM »

Quote
Case 2: bookie estimates 10% chance of team A winning, 90% chance of team A not winning. fair odds 10 and 1.111111. with 95% payout, what are bookie odds? can we even tell for sure from this info?

i think margin could be tilted on side
usually when odds are 1.11 vs 10
bookies one side(heavy volume) could be 1.10 but another side is usually quite awful smth like 5-8 i think
smth like 1.01 they never offer 80-90, but smth shitty 20 or so
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barbero
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 04:23:47 PM »

my_username:

find a range... well, sure you can delimit where odds must be, it is clear that they can't go too far - it must certainly be bounded by the odds you get by placing the full juice to a leg and the odds you get by placing no juice to that same leg. but the point is: should you have to provide odds parting from that information, what would they be? what process would you follow? by odds I mean odds, not range of odds. there migh be variance, maybe we will not exactly hit the odds bookies provide and just some sort of 'expected odds'... but as I see it, the better we calculate these 'expected odds' (or if we could do it exactly...), the closer we will be to knowing where the market should be and whether there is ev+ or not

ot maybe it's just not possible because it's random (let's say unknown), and we gotta just work with what we have. but, considering the process they follow is (must be) 1) estimate probabilities for an event, 2) calculate odds from probabilities, 3) APPLY JUICE, ... then we could, at least in theory, be able to undo that 3rd step to go back to the probabilities the bookies have thought to be 'real probabilities of an outcome'

maletaja:

I don't fully understand what you mean. could you elaborate on that idea?

thanks, interesting conversation
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