# Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?

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 Author Topic: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?  (Read 12304 times)
viking2
Has some experience

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Posts: 104

« on: August 18, 2016, 03:27:58 AM »

And by that i mean betting games straight up and not arbing.  I am curious but if someone wants to say say make \$50000 a year, how much should their average wager size be?  Obviously you would need at least a 6 figure bankroll right?  If you are wagering say \$500-1500 a game, then \$50000 would not be possible assuming your average bet is \$1000.  That would be up 50 units in a year which is beyond unsustainable.  And it also depends on your volume and roi.  But for ROI, is it true anyone that has even 2 percent roi is doing good?  Of course unless you are betting big amounts, 2 percent is not that much.  For example, if someone is wagering an average \$1000 per game.  Let say they wager 5 games per day and do it 22 days a month.  Lets assume the vig is 10 percent at the higher end.  That would be \$1000x550 = \$5500 wagered per day on average X 22 days = \$121000.  2 percent of that is \$2420 only a month.  And if you work say 11 months in a year, thats not even \$30,000.

I would assume for someone to want to make \$50000 a year, their average bet should be at least \$2000 minimum?  I mean if your average bet is \$5000 a game.  And you make 1 bet a month on average, that would be \$50000 in 10 months.  Are you suppose to look at your ROI?  Does ROI matter that much or volume?  Back then i had thought it was possible to make say \$2000 a month betting say \$200 a game... but obviously that is not possible since that would be +10 units on average a month.  What should someone's goal be if they want to make \$50000 a year?  If someones bankroll is \$50000 or less, is it even worth it?  Seems like betting sports straight up would be very hard.

Also would this thread be better suited on newbies or arbing talk?
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NXV
Newbie

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Posts: 54

« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 05:22:29 AM »

In betting it all comes down to value. Before you start thinking about how much you can make, you should think about whether you can find value or not. Most of the times you will find value on Softbooks, but there you will have the same problems with limitations and closed accounts. You can also find value on Asians, but in order to do that you will need huge knowledge and expertise about the sports/matches you want to bet on. So, the first thing to do before thinking about money management is, to ask yourself if you will be able to beat Asians like on the long term (and to beat honest with yourself).

Regarding money management: You will go through huge swings with betting. Therefore, i wouldn't place more than 1 % of your bankroll per bet. But this depents on your risk awareness. There are no rules regarding that, this only depends on your risk awareness.

Will you be able to up by 50 units per year? This depends on your ability to find value of course, nobody can answer this question for you

Regarding ROI: It depends how you calculate your ROI. There are different ways to calculate this figure, e.g. based on the turnover of the placed bets or your initial investment (Bankroll). A Yield of 2 % (return on the turnover) would be a very good result. Every positiv result with betting is a very good result.

So, is it even worth it? --> This depends on the time you have to put in, to generate these profits.

This Thread would be better suited in the section "Value Betting".
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RoosterDonky
Has some experience

Karma: -6
Posts: 178

« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 05:38:12 PM »

Good insight NXV, Bravo!
If you're more selective with your bets you can tweak the br%'s per wager.
Are you giving up some + EV spots, yes.
Will it help you sleep easier at night not enduring the streak of minimal + EV spots, yes.
I guess it depends on your comfort zone.
There's a bunch of different ways to be selective though.
Targeting certain %'s of value, only certain leagues, only certain sides that are opposite of what the public bets...........
Plus to OP just go through the value betting info and find the stats that minas posted.
with those numbers.
You can do this easily with excel and some simple formulas.
If ya wanna have real fun with it make a compounding bankroll excel sheet and see how a bankroll grows over time while reinvesting profits.

Cheers!
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viking2
Has some experience

Karma: -5
Posts: 104

« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2016, 12:01:40 AM »

Well im curious how many people out there can even do this.  And would you agree that betting minimum \$2500 would be needed if one wants to make \$50000 a year?  That would be 20 units for the year which is of course still hard since anything positive is already hard enough.  The thing is I thought imagine someone bets \$500 a game.  And they bet lot of volume.  And let say they did great and was up 50 units for the year.  That would be only \$25000... which is 1/2 of the \$50000.  I mean unless someone is putting huge volume or having a huge ROI, isn't betting a big unit size absolutely necessary for this?

Of course very few people will bet same amount every game as in \$500 or \$1000 and have a range of say from \$500 to say \$1500 or even \$2500.  For someone that does this, how many different unit plays should they have?  I felt that it should be from 1-3 units per game almost always.  1 unit if you believe you had edge.  2 unit if its decent edge.  3 unit if its big edge etc.
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RoosterDonky
Has some experience

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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2016, 05:33:49 AM »

All depends on volume.

https://www.sportsinsights.com/how-to-bet-on-sports/bankroll-management/betting-unit-size/

Just estimate the volume and you can figure out the simple math.

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,3910.0.html

Lets say you have 100 games a month. Let's say you start out with a \$5000 roll and use a 1.5%  betting strategy (\$75 Unit).
If your yield for the month is 7% you made \$525 which is a 10.5% ROI.
Then if you reinvest profits your BR grows and as does your bets.
Obv these numbers are a guide as real numbers will vary a little depending if your (1.5% bet) is risked or to win or if you are adjusting bet sizing based on value.

Now plug those numbers into an excel spreadsheet and plug in some formulas and watch how the BR grows over time.

As far as your range of bets from 500-2500, this is laughable.
if 500 is 1.5% of the br then 2500 would be 7.5% ish and goes against everything I've seen for proper bankroll management.

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Bubbles
Getting better

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Posts: 273

« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2016, 10:44:25 AM »

Here's a guy who hits your number through betting (using tipsters though). I don't know if he's legit but he's been around for a while before he opened his own tipping shop so he might be

http://www.daily25.com/
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maletaja
Probably a Pro

Karma: -25
Posts: 473

« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2016, 11:03:54 AM »

Its very hard to distinguish good tipster service. Because many of them are scammers and they dont earn anything , but show you million earned graphs to get paid service
In the other side. Very good bettors  dont have to advertise his "service" even for the side business. They hold low profile
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ProfGambler
Newbie

Karma: -128
Posts: 56

« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2016, 02:04:18 AM »

And by that i mean betting games straight up and not arbing.  I am curious but if someone wants to say say make \$50000 a year, how much should their average wager size be?  Obviously you would need at least a 6 figure bankroll right?  If you are wagering say \$500-1500 a game, then \$50000 would not be possible assuming your average bet is \$1000.  That would be up 50 units in a year which is beyond unsustainable.  And it also depends on your volume and roi.  But for ROI, is it true anyone that has even 2 percent roi is doing good?  Of course unless you are betting big amounts, 2 percent is not that much.  For example, if someone is wagering an average \$1000 per game.  Let say they wager 5 games per day and do it 22 days a month.  Lets assume the vig is 10 percent at the higher end.  That would be \$1000x550 = \$5500 wagered per day on average X 22 days = \$121000.  2 percent of that is \$2420 only a month.  And if you work say 11 months in a year, thats not even \$30,000.

I would assume for someone to want to make \$50000 a year, their average bet should be at least \$2000 minimum?  I mean if your average bet is \$5000 a game.  And you make 1 bet a month on average, that would be \$50000 in 10 months.  Are you suppose to look at your ROI?  Does ROI matter that much or volume?  Back then i had thought it was possible to make say \$2000 a month betting say \$200 a game... but obviously that is not possible since that would be +10 units on average a month.  What should someone's goal be if they want to make \$50000 a year?  If someones bankroll is \$50000 or less, is it even worth it?  Seems like betting sports straight up would be very hard.

Also would this thread be better suited on newbies or arbing talk?

Theoretically it's possible but practically I have to see someone who is doing betting for living. Traders and arbers are different story but pure betting is different beast.

To make living out of betting, either you have to be part of big betting syndicates or you need to have insider's information more than market. Both options are not possible for ordinary guy so in simple words; no it's not possible for ordinary guy to make living out of pure betting in long run.

Some people will sell you value betting system, but up and downs in value betting could be so massive that it could wipe out your entire bank balance or make it double in 1 month time. Someone mentioned in this thread daily25.com. This guy is from Australia. He seems genuine and truthful in his blogs. I am following his blogs from last 1 year. But I never used his tipster services. He is also doing value betting. In his results, you will find massive swings. In his last blog, he confessed that his value betting system generated negative return on investment on soccer in last 5 or 7 years. So value betting is nothing but a myth in the long run. Be very careful.

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RoosterDonky
Has some experience

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Posts: 178

« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2016, 04:01:49 AM »

LOL...

 « Last Edit: August 20, 2016, 04:09:35 AM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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RoosterDonky
Has some experience

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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2016, 05:06:33 PM »

Dang I'm surprised the number is as high as 4%
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RoosterDonky
Has some experience

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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 09:03:31 PM »

Me either when u add in cost of picks.
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maletaja
Probably a Pro

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Posts: 473

« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 02:38:38 AM »

One thing is dispersion. Why you need to play 1%-2% valuebets with severe variation. And furthermore u are not sure that your valuebets +EV at all I just think there are lot more ways doing business with higher margin and less variation
Im sure high money are made of inside information. For example tennis. If u know exactly about players form , injuries, motivation...u have 10%+ valuebets and its worth to try now not guessing...
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Bubbles
Getting better

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Posts: 273

« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 06:51:30 PM »

Why pure betting should be different than arbing? Everyone's after value and nothing else

Also, it's not an excuse here. That's why you're part of the 4%, aren't you?
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luctens
Probably a Pro

Karma: -42
Posts: 314

« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2016, 04:56:27 PM »

I bet for a living but I am lucky to be betting in a country where I can bet in person so there's no way I can get red flagged and banned, even hitting soft lines.
I don't know which country you're in but it's definitely not the UK as the UK land based based betting shops have pictures of smart bettors alongside the armed robbers. I'm surprised though if there isn't any customer profiling/restrictions or whatever in your country even if you're betting in person.
 « Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 05:07:21 PM by luctens » Logged
Thordin
Pro

Karma: 24
Posts: 803

« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2016, 05:01:22 PM »

Just keep ripping off your street bookies and be quiet about it.
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