Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)? (page 2)

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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2016, 09:18:36 AM »

I believe the number of smart minority who are making money by sports betting over long haul is "definetely" less then %1.

I used to be a Professional Handicapper too. I remember the day, I had quit my day job and started to work Full Time Professional Handicapper. I had my own service, had many clients from different parts of the world. It's a tough job. Bad swings, unfortunate losing streaks are unavoidable.

After I started arbing, I lost my motivation to handicap games and terminated my handicapper service. Time to time, I take some bets too but not often. When you full focused on arbing, you lose your motivation for handicapping.

However, I don't think we should not be betting. Value betting/Dropping Odds (or another profitable angle/system) can be a "good addition" to your arsenal. Just be careful with stakes!

My advice to people who want to make a living by betting on sports. Bankroll is important. Your bankroll is your inventory, it's your lifeblood. When you run out of blood, you're out of game. You must have a large bankroll and the Three Steels. Nerves of steel, Heart of steel and BALLS of steel :D

You should not get upset after a bad losing run. You must have nerves of steel.
You should always bet with your head, never with your heart.
And finally, you should always be ready to take the risk!

Money management is very important. I suggest to bet %1 or %2 each bet. Think it like a snowball. As your bankroll increases, your profits will increase too. When your bankroll is 50k, you're betting 1000€ each game. When your bankroll increased to 60k, you will be betting 1200€ every game. If you can increse your bankroll by %10 ever month, your 100,000€ will turn into 314,000€  after 12 months. Bet limits shouldn't be so much problem as long as you have access to Betfair, Pinnacle and Asians. Good luck!
« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 09:31:13 AM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

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Arbusers
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Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2016, 11:04:41 AM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?
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kapetan1122
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kapetan1122

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2016, 12:21:57 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Hope he is enjoying in his earnings and not have full job,isnt that a goal?
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2016, 07:18:01 PM »

Yngwie, what are you doing now as a full job?

Arbitrage of course :)))


« Last Edit: September 03, 2016, 07:23:01 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged

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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2016, 07:37:27 PM »

Yngwie,

Awesome insights as always.
I created an excel compounding return bankroll spreadsheet and it really is sexy to see long term.
Limits are key also and is your br % suggestions.

Cheers,

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punting20
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punting20

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #20 on: September 04, 2016, 09:04:26 PM »

I know a few pro punters, it's not an easy game, most of them have an edge of some description.  One person that springs to mind is a professional in running horse player on Betfair.  He's getting crucified by their Premium Charge but still makes a decent living.

I personally always like to sit some money on the right side of an arb trade especially if it's a late line and the rick price is the obvious anomaly.  In that respect I am taking a small position on most arbs I do as I have a win/loss situation, though very seldom for the actual full value of the stake on the arb. 

I think the only real angle for a longer term pro-punter on Sports is via an exchange (and beating the comm must be a massive handicap) and they have to have a significant edge. 

Obv there are 2 large professional sports gambling entities in London.  Star Lizard and Smart Odds, both do industrial level proprietary trading.
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KAOS
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Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #21 on: September 04, 2016, 11:45:31 PM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?

Mentioned recently was the theory that the odds move first in underground / illegal Asian books, then sharp books like SBO and Pinny, then exchanges, then soft books. Not mentioned was that punters move the odds.  So could it be blind faith in big teams, fans backing their own teams (the big guys), international punters backing the names they know? Or is this garbage and traders correct the odds anyway?
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Arbusers
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Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #22 on: September 05, 2016, 08:16:45 AM »

I believe your question will be answered soon, with facts and figures.
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Smartsportstrader
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Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #23 on: September 05, 2016, 10:04:05 AM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?


There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?

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antemartic
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antemartic

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #24 on: September 05, 2016, 10:08:09 AM »

I would be interested to know what the outcome would have been in an English Premier season where you always backed the smaller team at the best price. And when I say smaller I don't mean underdog. Instead, lesser known team with fewer fans.

Take a match last Feb, these are Pinnacle odds

Arsenal 1.68 V Leicester 5.32

We all know Leicester went on to win the league, and Arsenal won that tight game 2-1 and everything is easy in hindsight. But if I recall Leicester were 5 points clear at the top after 2 thirds of the season so in theory the best team in the country. Do those prices reflect that? If not, why not?


There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?
maybe
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luctens
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luctens

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2016, 11:53:33 AM »

There is definitely market sentiment for certain teams. Again using Leicester as an example.
This weekend you have Liverpool priced at 1.63 with Pinnacle at home against league champions Leicester.
Do Liverpool really win 61% of the time?
Even before I started seriously looking into betting, I always noticed every weekend that the odds for Liverpool seemed way shorter than I thought they should be, and that was especially so if they were playing at home so it definitely seems like the bookies shade the odds towards these popular teams that have loads of fans. I would expect even at best prices you would be doing extremely well turning a profit over the last 15 years if you were backing Liverpool regularly.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2016, 01:16:15 PM »

U want to say that fans(fool money) could change the lines betting Liverpool?I think market is quite efficient. There are always big smart money who can cover lines if need to
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2016, 05:20:51 PM »

1 way to gauge if fool money is moving the line (which imo it doesn't) is to look if it's coming in on the over or the favorite.

Since people who lose long term love betting those sides.

Knowing how the fools bet gives us the edge in deciding if the odds are being adjusted because of it.

You cal also find sites that have a breakdown (% wise) of where the action is.

You can also do a value betting idea that only targets unders and underdogs (like myself) so you can capitalize on last minute steam chasing (price changes).

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johnsmith
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johnsmith

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2016, 12:09:56 AM »

i make my living betting greyhounds.

I was an arber back in the glory days before this forum and the old uk one  before moving to the dark side and for the past 3-4 yrs have been on the dogs full time

my bank is 200 units, turned over 5 times a month approx with a pot of between 5 and 10% , which is on the higher side of those that bet for a living. my unit size is currently $250/u and is adjusted in $50 increments up or down after +-/50 unit swing.

I experience the usual constant limiting across multiple accounts and gnomes and have to spread bets around multiple books and exchanges to get set.

i tend to take advantage more so in the place market with the majority of my bets 1/2 (1u win 2u place) , taking advantage of the value in a particular dogs chances to place being better than the correlated odds the books offer on those markets relative to its win price.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: Does anyone bet sports for a living here (Not Arbing)?
« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2016, 10:14:57 AM »

Im not profesional(i have daily job) but im quite active over 100bet per week. Due to searching and finding static bookies for me first month havnt been easy(errors,deposit-limitation-documents procedure-withdrawal,bad soft)But each day i make fewer mistakes
Now its been stabilized for me-i have around 5 soft bookies. Some of them had limiting me, but i can still do up to 100eur bets. My terms for soft bookie is 1)no void bets without reason 2)min 100 bets 3) lots of action
My arbing is changed somehow valuebetting. I dont cover anymore pinnacle up to 100 bets. I dont see any reason to take insurance from pinnacle for  60$ bet. And biger bets i take partial event risk just to reduce pinnacle exposure
What im missing?Mayby some good partner(s) who will do  same thing and can share experience. I think it could have lot of synergy
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 10:18:14 AM by maletaja » Logged
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