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When does an odd have value?

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Author Topic: When does an odd have value?  (Read 1534 times)
Alfa1234
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« on: August 18, 2016, 12:12:36 PM »

Plain and simple.  If Pinny has an odd of let's say 2.16 on 1 end and 1.75 on the other in a major market.  What would you consider a valuebet?

Anything "arbable" obviously, but would consider an odd valuable if you found an odd of 2.25 for the first leg?  It's not an arb, but still 4.16% higher than the pinny odd.  What % above a pinny odd would you consider a valuebet?
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qbet
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 01:07:59 PM »

I wouldn't take it.
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 05:54:58 PM »

I'm not a pro but I can tell ya of my journey.
After the 1st month i threw out the 5-8's value plays.
Am I giving up EV, yes
Do i sleep easier not trying to squeeze a minimal amount out of value out of bets, yes.
Basically I think of it like a coin toss.
You're gonna have streaks of where u lose 10+ games, sh!t happens.
But when you're getting an avg of +106 or better odds it makes it easier to stomach.
Targeting smaller plays like 4% if pinny has 2.4% ish vig built into that event then the edge your exploiting is minimal and depends on the type of value betting that you wanna do.
If you wanna get every penny you can go for it but the swings will be big.
If you wanna sleep easy at night and not be tempted to kick the dog after a bad day, a less aggressive strategy may suit you better.
Hope it helps!

Cheers!
« Last Edit: August 18, 2016, 06:12:29 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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dealer wins
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 07:18:29 PM »

I could never value bet.  I know its more EV than arbing, but I have had winning and losing streaks on BF that even I find incredible.  In 2009 I lost over a million pounds on Betfair, then in 2011 I won £1,222,801,20 on BF for the calendar year, to the penny.

I have no idea why but I often have severe winning or losing streaks on BF, and there is no way I would take a chance on getting wiped out.

I superstitiously put it down to me having a lot of wild odds occurrences in my life :) .   2 funny reasons why I say that.  First when the UK lottery started I did the same numbers for years and years, released it was a mugs game and stopped, 3 weeks later I would have hit 5 + bonus for £229K.

2nd reason, when playing craps in a Vegas casino I threw boxcars (6&6) on the come out roll 6 times in a row, on literally the only time I have ever been at a table where no one had a single bet on horn, any craps, boxcars etc.
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 07:34:41 PM »

Different strokes for different folks.
If we all liked the same things the world would be a boring place.
Proper bankroll management is designed to help you withstand the swings.
You pick your headache either way with arbing or value betting.


Cheers!
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middler
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 09:05:57 PM »

step 1. calculate pinny's juice (as if it was an arb opportunity)

step 2. convert pinny's odds to probabilities (1 / odd * 100 = probability)

step 3. remove juice from the result in step 2 (probability * 100 / [100 + juice] = probability without juice)

step 4. convert new probability to odd (1 / probability without juice = real odd)

step 5. compare percentage wise the odd you got at the other book against the odd you get from step 4 (odd at bookie / real odd at pinny * 100 = % value)
« Last Edit: August 18, 2016, 09:15:37 PM by middler » Logged

RoosterDonky
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2016, 04:48:56 AM »

You can use odds portal and.........

http://sportsbettingsites.org/betting-tools/no-vig-calculator/

to make it easier.
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2016, 09:09:45 AM »

step 1. calculate pinny's juice (as if it was an arb opportunity)

step 2. convert pinny's odds to probabilities (1 / odd * 100 = probability)

step 3. remove juice from the result in step 2 (probability * 100 / [100 + juice] = probability without juice)

step 4. convert new probability to odd (1 / probability without juice = real odd)

step 5. compare percentage wise the odd you got at the other book against the odd you get from step 4 (odd at bookie / real odd at pinny * 100 = % value)

Exactly what I was looking for, thank you very much.  :)
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Bubbles
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« Reply #8 on: August 19, 2016, 10:17:35 AM »

I could never value bet.  I know its more EV than arbing, but I have had winning and losing streaks on BF that even I find incredible.  In 2009 I lost over a million pounds on Betfair, then in 2011 I won £1,222,801,20 on BF for the calendar year, to the penny.

I have no idea why but I often have severe winning or losing streaks on BF, and there is no way I would take a chance on getting wiped out.

I superstitiously put it down to me having a lot of wild odds occurrences in my life :) .   2 funny reasons why I say that.  First when the UK lottery started I did the same numbers for years and years, released it was a mugs game and stopped, 3 weeks later I would have hit 5 + bonus for £229K.

2nd reason, when playing craps in a Vegas casino I threw boxcars (6&6) on the come out roll 6 times in a row, on literally the only time I have ever been at a table where no one had a single bet on horn, any craps, boxcars etc.

Had a pretty similar experience with lottery myself and hate to remember it but true story. One day when I was about twenty I woke up and a sequence of numbers come to my mind. I memorised them and thought I would try my luck at the lottery, then the day went on and I couldn't be bothered to go to a shop (it's before Internet). In the evening purely by accident I heard my numbers read on TV. It was six digit accumulation... Strange things happen 
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antemartic
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« Reply #9 on: August 19, 2016, 10:43:56 PM »

step 1. calculate pinny's juice (as if it was an arb opportunity)

step 2. convert pinny's odds to probabilities (1 / odd * 100 = probability)

step 3. remove juice from the result in step 2 (probability * 100 / [100 + juice] = probability without juice)

step 4. convert new probability to odd (1 / probability without juice = real odd)

step 5. compare percentage wise the odd you got at the other book against the odd you get from step 4 (odd at bookie / real odd at pinny * 100 = % value)

Exactly what I was looking for, thank you very much.  :)
it is for odds where are no big favorite. but if pinn have odds like 1.2 and 5.5 it's incorrect.
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ProfGambler
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2016, 02:20:36 AM »

I could never value bet.  I know its more EV than arbing, but I have had winning and losing streaks on BF that even I find incredible.  In 2009 I lost over a million pounds on Betfair, then in 2011 I won £1,222,801,20 on BF for the calendar year, to the penny.

I have no idea why but I often have severe winning or losing streaks on BF, and there is no way I would take a chance on getting wiped out.



I don't trust value betting either. There are instances where I have lost my all bank at pinny but won at softies and vice versa.

Steve is a value bettor and he is monitoring his results since he started. In his last blog, he confessed to have negative ROI of 0.48% (in soccer) in last 6 years.  (http://www.daily25.com/im-not-following-football-soccer-tipsters-year/)

So after 6 years of efforts, do you really want to have negative ROI? I will never get this how people promote value betting by placing $10 bets. Lol................
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2016, 03:59:40 AM »

Are we now using the term value bet for tipsters picks?
Cos that was that article was about.
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2016, 08:21:59 AM »

If your tipster service has enough members, it will create value by dropping the odds on the tip you gave...you can see this happening all the time on smaller markets.
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KAOS
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2016, 12:52:47 PM »

If your tipster service has enough members, it will create value by dropping the odds on the tip you gave...you can see this happening all the time on smaller markets.

horse racing a prime example
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ProfGambler
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 06:48:10 AM »

Are we now using the term value bet for tipsters picks?
Cos that was that article was about.

His tips are based on value betting
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