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Time of placing a value bet

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Author Topic: Time of placing a value bet  (Read 1695 times)
tarzan
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« on: September 30, 2016, 04:18:45 PM »

This is the question to all value bettors...
...is it more profitable to place a bet on the day when the match is playing or two or tree days before?
I know that in the begging the volume to move the odds are smaller (pinnacle,sbobet) but not all the sharp players has a big bank for betting.
What is your experience?
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2016, 04:28:02 PM »

Probably depends on which team you are placing the bet on - the favourite will usually shorten as you get closer to match time so betting on them days in advance will be an advantage but waiting before betting on the outsider until near match time would work in theory - a market won't be fully formed until the team news is out so keeping an eye on any injury news  helps a lot to determine which way the market will go in the 2 or 3 days leading up to the game


I'm sure someone will disagree :D
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fairpunter
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2016, 10:02:13 AM »

Probably depends on which team you are placing the bet on - the favourite will usually shorten as you get closer to match time so betting on them days in advance will be an advantage but waiting before betting on the outsider until near match time would work in theory - a market won't be fully formed until the team news is out so keeping an eye on any injury news  helps a lot to determine which way the market will go in the 2 or 3 days leading up to the game


I'm sure someone will disagree :D
8) 8) 8)
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barbero
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2016, 10:23:36 AM »

Can't say I disagree as I haven't analyzed the evolution of these odds and if you make that point it's because you've observed such behavior  :)

But Max, doesn't that mean that betting early on the favorites, regardless of there being value or not, will give you an edge? Well that's a strong claim...
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kustef
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2016, 01:47:25 PM »

OK example

3 days to match start : 15 eur locked for profit 5% ..

How many times can you reinvest that 15 eur during 3 days ? 3-4 times ?
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2016, 01:56:43 PM »

Can't say I disagree as I haven't analyzed the evolution of these odds and if you make that point it's because you've observed such behavior  :)

But Max, doesn't that mean that betting early on the favorites, regardless of there being value or not, will give you an edge? Well that's a strong claim...

Didn't mean every game - mainly the big ones with a strong ante-post market like Premier matches and especially televised games
I'm not saying there will be massive move like 2.0 down to 1.5 but there will usually be a slight drop over the days
« Last Edit: October 01, 2016, 01:59:00 PM by MaxShalamar » Logged

RoosterDonky
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2016, 05:05:01 PM »

Everyone has their own ideas but I place my bet within 30 minutes of start time.
I do this because you have given the market the maximum amount of time to correct the price thus creating what should be the most accurate price and from there you can find books that price the game based on prior betting habits of their clientele rather than the price correction.
I don't do the value bets bets beyond that because variables can change and because i also track money coming into the game that is contrary to what the bulk of the public is betting.
Meaning - if 70% of the public is betting an over and some pros come in (who know more about this stuff than me and make their living from it) and are placing a large amount of money down on a side not bet by the public (Under) and can move the line counter to what it has moved to that point for me it's a good sign.
« Last Edit: October 01, 2016, 05:29:07 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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janajana
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2016, 09:18:34 AM »

OK example

3 days to match start : 15 eur locked for profit 5% ..

How many times can you reinvest that 15 eur during 3 days ? 3-4 times ?

Dont be perfectionist. Our business comprises having thousands stand by in accounts for days and weeks.
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Arbusers
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2016, 11:44:19 AM »

OK example

3 days to match start : 15 eur locked for profit 5% ..

How many times can you reinvest that 15 eur during 3 days ? 3-4 times ?

This is an advantage for those with surplus of funds.
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middler
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2016, 04:59:07 AM »

This is not necessarily an advantage, it can go both ways.

A betting market 3 days before the event is a very static market with small liquidity and movement (except some few extraordinary events), meaning that an overvalued odd is much easier to spot, meaning it is easier to flag you as a value bettor/arber.

You would need a niche market, or avoiding softs. But then again, niche markets usually imply smaller events and therefore lower liquidity, and if you avoid softs you probably won't need to trap your money for 3 days as your limits will be really high.

If what you do is guess that certain odd will decrease in the future, and wait to close your position, then you will be speculating, and that will no longer be arbing.
If there were such simple patterns in certain markets, be sure about this:

a) Nobody would tell you this in a public forum for free, and would rather be profiting from it.

b) In no time this would turn the other way round, having so many people (or so much money) placing bets on the favorite in advance, and waiting to close the trades later.
This would cause a high demand against the favorite when people wanted to close their positions, meaning the odd of the initial bet would increase instead of decrease.
The value of the initial bet would then be negative.
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barbero
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2016, 04:36:14 PM »

I see Max - that's interesting, will have to look into that more carefully. Of course this is not (say) forex, we are working in a rather imperfect market and that's why we can attempt to find such patterns and part of the whole reason for the existence of arbitrage. I'm just skeptical that such a simple pattern can be observed, your claim is strong and I tend to agree a bit more with part of what middler commented. But then again, I'll try to look into it and throw preconceptions away before making up my mind about anything! :)

Rooster - by that you mean to say that you can observe 'where the money comes from'? And I mean this: is there a tool that will allow you to know the times, evolution and amounts of bets on each side (let's say in betfair, in pinnacle), or you just get to see the global volume? I did ask some of this in another thread with not much success (hehe), so any info about useful tools is greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2016, 08:04:34 PM »

Barbero,

You can go to sites that monitor money activity.
SportsInsights have a nice free odds section that breaks down how the public is betting.
You can see the books they monitor and so forth.
Hope it helps.
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barbero
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« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2016, 08:17:47 PM »

Thank you Rooster, I was not really aware of such tools. Will definitely try it out soon. It seems a bit expensive, but since you recommend it, I gather it's worth the price  ;)

Should you know of any other such tools I'd be grateful if you could share the info, so I can try a few of them and see which suits me best (perhaps PM me, if that's better for you). Anyway this is very good for starters!

Thanks mate
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2016, 08:23:48 PM »

Ya they are pricey if you sign up.
I never did though I just used the free version back in the day.
Free version should be good enough to give ya an idea.
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barbero
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2016, 08:34:20 PM »

Cool 8)
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