# How to evaluate a tipster

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 Author Topic: How to evaluate a tipster  (Read 3340 times)
nickolas
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« on: October 12, 2016, 05:10:47 PM »

You need two numbers, all other things equal, to evaluate the value of a tipsters pick. Yield and win rate.
The first tells you how much as a percentage you can expect to win on your bet.
The second tells you how heavily you can bet so that you do not have a high risk of blowing up your bankroll.

Now the thing is, does anyone know of a formula to combine the two and make you able to directly compare two tipsters?

PS offcourse the number of picks is also important as well as nuances like whether it is the start, middle or ending of a championship. But this is for a quick and dirty calculation based on the statistics of the tipster.
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AceJack
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 02:23:34 PM »

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dejected
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 10:39:20 AM »

Excellent article! I have been wondering for a while what is the best way to do this. What sample size is required if betting at certani odds. Only 1 day on the forum and I've learnt something! Need to add p score in to my stats.
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midoritea
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 09:57:19 PM »

Interesting, but that article has a few doubtful points. When comparing betting at 5.00 odds to betting at 1.25, it says the former has more "random variability". But actually the variance of a single boolean event is the same for these two particular numbers, as it is p*(1-p). Note the symmetry here. Further, it does not matter (variance-wise) if you are expected to win 2 out of 10 or to lose 2. The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.
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dejected
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 12:22:20 PM »

The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.

I think it did say at level stakes which most tipsters tend to quote their results to these days.

The use of statistics in betting is one of the things I want to learn more about, partly why I'm here. Any recommended sources to read midoritea .
 « Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 12:32:21 PM by dejected » Logged
midoritea
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 01:47:47 AM »

I cannot recommend betting specific sources. For general math, statistics/distributions wolfram and wikipedia are good references, less so as tutorials.
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dejected
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 08:54:42 AM »

Thanks. James Willoughby used to write some interesting stuff on his blog, but does not do it any more. Think he now has more important things to do
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Hart
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2017, 08:57:48 AM »

Hello!

Good topic! I am working with tipsters since 2012 and I have evaluated more than 3.000 tipsters.
I believe that you have to check a multiple things.
- All record. How many years? How many picks? Some tipsters "live" 1-2 years and then he dies, so it is important to follow a healthy tipsters with high experience and some picks.
- The fame. If the tipster earn many money with his work, he probably works hard, if not he could die fastly.
- Last 6 month. Some tipsters have a good year or month and the stats may be affected by that. His graph should be regular, similar units won for month.
- Average Odds:If the tipster bets on horse racing for example, you need more bets than others, because the variance is higher.
- Sport. From my experience i think that is more difficult to win to ATP/WTA (ML) and NBA (ML). In soccer or other sports is easier to win. This is my feeling.
- Liquidity.

I can forget something and probably i am not correct in all things but is my experience
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maletaja
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2017, 12:38:21 PM »

I dont see another way of beaing tennis for example just for being front of computer. U have to know players, you probably should be present  in tournament circuits
Same to any sport specific
Lots of scammers around who think they are sport betting wizards
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BettingIsCool
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2017, 02:40:47 PM »

Hello guys,

The most reliable way to evaluate a tipster is by comparing the advised prices to pinnacle's closing line. In the betting industry this is widely known as beating the closing line and every professional bettor will tell you this is THE most and in almost all cases the ONLY important factor when it comes to deciding whether to follow a tipster or not. The problem with traditional tipster platforms like blogabet, pyckio,.. is that they all suffer from survivorship bias, so it's useless to look at the raw performance (p/l, roi, sample size, etc.). I have been in contact with pyckio requesting the addition of closing prices in the tipster stats. They declined for obvious reasons.

I have written an article on this that you might like: https://bettingiscool.com/2016/12/27/how-good-is-a-betting-tipster/

You can also find more articles on this matter on my smart bet.io blog: https://smartbet.io/-bets4value

Hope that helps.
Chris
 « Last Edit: November 13, 2017, 03:01:07 PM by BettingIsCool » Logged
maletaja
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2017, 05:25:13 PM »

Its good point following closing lines. But if there tip is given out prior ooen?
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BettingIsCool
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2017, 06:06:13 PM »

That is regardless of the time the bet has been issued. As long as the obtained price is higher then the price at kick-off (+margin) you are making a bet with a positive expectation (in other words a +ev bet). If you are able to do this consistently you WILL secure a long-term profit and vice-versa. Stats prove that about 1 in 10000 tipsters is able to consistently make +ev bets.
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BettingIsCool
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2017, 11:12:27 PM »

And if you want to know why so much money is buried in useless tipsters you might want to check out yet another article of mine:

https://bettingiscool.com/2017/11/13/the-reason-you-are-wasting-money-on-useless-tipsters/
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junoreactor
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« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2017, 02:53:42 AM »

Beat Pinnacle closing odds by more than 5% and you will be a winning tipster.
This is feasible even by using Pinnacle only. They open odds at a wrong price quite often but you need to be quick
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maletaja
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« Reply #14 on: November 22, 2017, 08:31:34 AM »

Quote
Beat Pinnacle closing odds by more than 5% and you will be a winning tipster.
This is feasible even by using Pinnacle only. They open odds at a wrong price quite often but you need to be quick

not entirely true

u have to beat pinnacle lines-juice
But premiar leagues juice is capr 2%. ITF tennis could be 7% even pinnacle
But yes its genius solution to compare opening lines. We dont need anymore variation bullshit from tipsters. When these lines is constantly bad with pinncale lines
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