How to evaluate a tipster

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nickolas
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nickolas

How to evaluate a tipster
« on: October 12, 2016, 05:10:47 PM »

You need two numbers, all other things equal, to evaluate the value of a tipsters pick. Yield and win rate.
The first tells you how much as a percentage you can expect to win on your bet.
The second tells you how heavily you can bet so that you do not have a high risk of blowing up your bankroll.

Now the thing is, does anyone know of a formula to combine the two and make you able to directly compare two tipsters?

PS offcourse the number of picks is also important as well as nuances like whether it is the start, middle or ending of a championship. But this is for a quick and dirty calculation based on the statistics of the tipster.
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AceJack
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 02:23:34 PM »

Pinnacle recently published an good article about this : https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-good-are-betting-tipsters
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dejected
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 10:39:20 AM »

Pinnacle recently published an good article about this : https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-good-are-betting-tipsters

Excellent article! I have been wondering for a while what is the best way to do this. What sample size is required if betting at certani odds. Only 1 day on the forum and I've learnt something! Need to add p score in to my stats.
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midoritea
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2016, 09:57:19 PM »

Interesting, but that article has a few doubtful points. When comparing betting at 5.00 odds to betting at 1.25, it says the former has more "random variability". But actually the variance of a single boolean event is the same for these two particular numbers, as it is p*(1-p). Note the symmetry here. Further, it does not matter (variance-wise) if you are expected to win 2 out of 10 or to lose 2. The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.
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dejected
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 12:22:20 PM »

The author is probably mislead by the false assumption that one uses the same stake at 5.00 and 1.25 - this of course leads to different total variance, but for an other reason. Also note that there ARE odds with different variance - the highest is at evens.

I think it did say at level stakes which most tipsters tend to quote their results to these days.

The use of statistics in betting is one of the things I want to learn more about, partly why I'm here. Any recommended sources to read midoritea .
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midoritea
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midoritea

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 01:47:47 AM »

I cannot recommend betting specific sources. For general math, statistics/distributions wolfram and wikipedia are good references, less so as tutorials.
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dejected

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2016, 08:54:42 AM »

Thanks. James Willoughby used to write some interesting stuff on his blog, but does not do it any more. Think he now has more important things to do :(
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