How to evaluate a tipster (page 2)

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MisterRodriguez
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MisterRodriguez

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2017, 10:24:10 AM »

That is regardless of the time the bet has been issued. As long as the obtained price is higher then the price at kick-off (+margin) you are making a bet with a positive expectation (in other words a +ev bet). If you are able to do this consistently you WILL secure a long-term profit and vice-versa. Stats prove that about 1 in 10000 tipsters is able to consistently make +ev bets.


Christian,i advocate following the closing line priciple as much as you do,however its not so linear as you ve pointed out here.Its not guaranteed that the closing line was efficient for that specific match

The closing line is generally efficient,not always and this premiss is more evident the further away the bettor/tipster goes from high liquidity leagues
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2017, 01:19:51 PM »

Also true. Closing line is line which is aproved by crowd.
Only God knows or arificial inteligence which is proper odds for match
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hammers
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hammers

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #17 on: November 23, 2017, 01:23:34 PM »


Hi, I am the Pro Footy tipster at Bettinggods

The comparison to closing lines may of course be a prominent factor on whether to follow a tipster or not, but still not suitable for judging a tipsters performance.
Depends a lot on how quickly you can get on.
A well performing tipster may have so many subscribers that closing lines will be heavily affected. He may also have relatively few ( like me ), and closing lines are on average the same as recommendation price.
Then again, in soccer there is a big difference if the bets are from liquid markets / big leagues, or smaller markets / leagues.

Btw - I totally agree with the modification above on win rate. If your staking is right, the difference of betting 1.25 or 5 is mainly about patience and psychology.
With my low win rate I have learnt a lesson on how impatient subscribers are, so I took action :)
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NedlogViiibes
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NedlogViiibes

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #18 on: November 23, 2017, 07:48:54 PM »


Hi, I am the Pro Footy tipster at Bettinggods

The comparison to closing lines may of course be a prominent factor on whether to follow a tipster or not, but still not suitable for judging a tipsters performance.
Depends a lot on how quickly you can get on.
A well performing tipster may have so many subscribers that closing lines will be heavily affected. He may also have relatively few ( like me ), and closing lines are on average the same as recommendation price.
Then again, in soccer there is a big difference if the bets are from liquid markets / big leagues, or smaller markets / leagues.

Btw - I totally agree with the modification above on win rate. If your staking is right, the difference of betting 1.25 or 5 is mainly about patience and psychology.
With my low win rate I have learnt a lesson on how impatient subscribers are, so I took action :)

Sounds like you do not have an edge then :)
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hammers
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hammers

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #19 on: November 23, 2017, 08:11:40 PM »

Indeed, it may sound that way.
But since you didn't look it up I have to tell you - 17 % yield from more than 800 picks, mainly 1X2
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #20 on: November 23, 2017, 10:16:57 PM »

Indeed, it may sound that way.
But since you didn't look it up I have to tell you - 17 % yield from more than 800 picks, mainly 1X2

Nope, you didn't have to tell me - you were just looking for an excuse to promote yourself :)

If you do not beat the closing odds on average, then you do not have an edge. The bigger the market, the more evidence we have for this. It is really that simple.

17% roi is obviously good from 800 picks - but it is not sustainable, so stop fooling yourself and others. What you really should keep track of is how much you beat the closing odds on average - that way we would actually get a good picture of your skills.

For the question at hand: How to evaluate a tipster? I would take a look at the arguments presented by the tipster for the picks. This is where you can tell if someone actually might have an edge. If they are doing well against the closing odds and presents some solid arguments, then you probably have found a good tipster.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2017, 10:18:43 PM by NedlogViiibes » Logged
Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #21 on: November 23, 2017, 11:31:43 PM »

Indeed, it may sound that way.
But since you didn't look it up I have to tell you - 17 % yield from more than 800 picks, mainly 1X2

Just had a look at your stats...

2 things come to mind:

- Some of your bets aren't even offered by asian bookmakers...so you need softs to place the bets. 
- Some of the things that are quoted have an odd higher than the Pinnacle/asian odd ever was.  Not hard to have a winning service that way.

I have no idea where you got some of the odds quoted there. (5.8 on Over 5.5 on Young AZ VS Young Ajax, 3.9 on PSG -4 VS Celtic...skipping a bunch and going back to a random game: 5.0 for Stenhousmuir VS Peterhead -> only Marathonbet EVER quoted that odd!)?  Even if you had a bunch of soft bookies to choose from to quote those odds, there's no way anyone but a small fraction of your clients could get some of them, let alone all of them.

I can start a tipster service tomorrow with a nice high yield if I can start giving "edges" like those in my service.  Let's open up a random game in oddsportal.  Let's say Rosenheim VS Munich 1860.  My tip is Rosenheim @ 4.4.  You can still find it!  I also just gave you a nice value bet that is certain to get your account closed if you keep betting lines like that.  Total BS...

Services like yours are the reason tipster services never live up to their expectations and are scams half the time.  Come back to me once you only start quoting odds from Pinnacle/Asian bookies and have yield of 10% after 5k tips.  At least then you actually may have an edge.  I won't go as far as to call you an outright scammer, but let's rewrite your results with obtainable odds at the time of posting...

Not a single one of your clients will have the results you quoted.  I dare you to prove me otherwise.

EDIT: just checked some other "tipsters" from your site...they are all the same.  Unobtainable odds for almost all tips give ( random first game I checked: Morocco at 5.15 VS Ivory coast...best line I could find that was ever online at all bookies was 4.58)?  If not an outright scam, it's definitely a "somewhat hidden" scam...simply posting some tips with high value odds will give even a monkey a nice ROI.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2017, 11:47:52 PM by Alfa1234 » Logged
AlexNotman1
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #22 on: November 24, 2017, 07:40:25 AM »

Indeed, it may sound that way.
But since you didn't look it up I have to tell you - 17 % yield from more than 800 picks, mainly 1X2

17% yield you say? So why you bother coming here, bragging and trying to catch some naive people instead of making huge money? You've got 17% so why don't you open 12345 accounts with softs or whatever you need and become a millionaire within a year? 800 picks, 17% is 136 units if staking flat one unit each game, bet 500 euro one unit and you've got 68 000 Euro. So why you charge 40 pounds a month instead of focusing on easy, huge money?  FFS another scam. Man this isn't a primary school or forum for newbies go elsewhere promoting your "service". >:(
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NedlogViiibes
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NedlogViiibes

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2017, 10:04:11 AM »

Had a feeling something was off with the numbers etc. This is an automatic red flag:
He may also have relatively few ( like me ), and closing lines are on average the same as recommendation price.

I do however find the statement rather odd, as this guy has to be beating the closing lines quite a bit if he is taking odds from soft books (and odds that doesn't even exist)...

I would always be cautious with sites like this one. There is usually no way to know if the results are accurate, or if losing bets has been removed etc.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #24 on: November 24, 2017, 11:08:03 AM »

Im sure nobody even controls these "winning" graphs
BTW i have done 20% valuebets for local events and for friends, because of local odds writer has such a errors. Gives some 99% prob 1.2 lines for example
But there are 2 things to consider

1)These events comes not very often. 2-3 times per year!

2) its capacaty is  max 1000 eur total. 100eur x 10 account . Then lines start to change considerably

Still closing lines are important


There could be value even closing lines. not 20% but mayby 5% exotic events
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hammers
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hammers

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #25 on: November 24, 2017, 07:42:20 PM »

Thanks for all your judgmental words.

I'm never at forums, and this single stunt was obviously a mistake.
Like AlexNotman already calculated: I'm a millionaire, so why would I suddenly emerge at a random forum to promote this small scale service.
 
None of your cynical comments can shout by the verdict of judge Lucy Collins, who scrutinized my service for 9 months.
https://www.laybackandgetrich.com/category/passed-systems/
How many simple to follow soccer services do you find there ?
( Oops I did it again, I kind of promoted my service )

I'm sure most of you know that the Bettinggods tipster platform has a reputation for its accountability, odds and results verified. All picks are manually reviewed at their desk before posting subscribers.
Bettinggods rules prevent me from quoting Pinnacle-odds as the odds for the records, just because UK-citizens can't bet there. Yield were a bit higher if I could.

Ned:
It may well be that I cannot sustain the current yield, but how can you just out of the blue claim it's not possible ?

Alfa1234:
Both the over 5,5 and PSG-4 you refer to are Unibet-picks you can look up the history of. Btw, PSG-4 was one of many examples of a higher closing price.
You are right about the Peterhead-game. I posted this pick 3 days upfront, and don't know why the wednesday 5,00 doesn't show. To me it looked like the typical bet365 reaction competing with Pinnacle on the underdog odds, after Pinnacle launched @ 4,85.
You are welcome to see how many games in my records that lacks verification, I never shout what is not available,
Btw - Marathonbets is among the lots of bookies I never would quote.

I've been in this industry for 30 years, and started proofing mainly to further discipline my own betting, not to have as many subscribers as possible at expense of their results following.

Sorry, didn't mean to create a digression to the original topic, but as an accountable advisor I had to.

Finally, to pick up the thread again: You can't hold against a tipster that odds get slashed for good. The more popular he is, the bigger chance that closing prices will be lower. Except for the big leagues, where the overall interest, information and betting volume should level things up.
Then again, the best tipsters don't find their value very often in the big leagues, so they will naturally be betting more against the starting prices (bookmakers) than the public (closing prices)


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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #26 on: November 24, 2017, 10:12:31 PM »

The point is, you are quoting results that have been obtained by tipping value odds from soft bookmakers.  No client can consistently bet those odds, so the results you post are not obtainable by your clients.  No "independent" verification can change that fact...

I wouldn't call posting at one of the sharpest forums that exist a "stunt"...but you should accept the fact that your results are not consistently obtainable for clients and I would love to see how many recurring clients you have that have been with you for a long time.  My guess is very, very few...the reason being none of your clients will have the results that are posted on the website. 

If you can get those results by posting odds that are readily available at non-limiting bookies only (let's say Pinnacle, SBO and Maxbet only), I will be the first to applaud you.  The problem is, you most likely can't, so sorry for calling your service not-very-good.  Every member here can get those results from a bunch of soft bookie accounts, it's what we do.

If you cannot face that criticism or at least tell me why it's incorrect, you should indeed not post here.
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NedlogViiibes
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #27 on: November 25, 2017, 12:58:57 PM »

Ned:
It may well be that I cannot sustain the current yield, but how can you just out of the blue claim it's not possible ?

I've been in this industry for 30 years, and started proofing mainly to further discipline my own betting, not to have as many subscribers as possible at expense of their results following.

If you think that you can beat the closing odds from Pinnacle/SBO (your recommended picks are same as closing prices on average) by ~17%, then you do not know anything about betting at all.

I just checked your first post on this forum, which was 3 years ago:

Im quite new to this but from what I understand, you arb and get the same profit on any outcome.

30 years in the industry, and at year 27 you still don't know what arbing is. Shouldn't we only talk about how many years you've been in this industry while making money?
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BettingIsCool
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Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #28 on: November 25, 2017, 02:19:20 PM »

That is regardless of the time the bet has been issued. As long as the obtained price is higher then the price at kick-off (+margin) you are making a bet with a positive expectation (in other words a +ev bet). If you are able to do this consistently you WILL secure a long-term profit and vice-versa. Stats prove that about 1 in 10000 tipsters is able to consistently make +ev bets.


Christian,i advocate following the closing line priciple as much as you do,however its not so linear as you ve pointed out here.Its not guaranteed that the closing line was efficient for that specific match

Agree 100%, however it is still the best estimator of the true price we have.
« Last Edit: November 25, 2017, 02:22:06 PM by BettingIsCool » Logged
maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How to evaluate a tipster
« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2017, 05:37:19 PM »

Lets say there are 50% chance both winning.
bookie offers 2.5odds. Its more probable that it closes more like 2.0 not 3.0
Yes closing line cannot be efficient, but market "realizes" more like your direction
So closing line is one parameter to estimate tipster service
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