valuebet vs arbitrage (page 2)

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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2016, 08:31:25 AM »

BTW betting pinnacle im not sure you are losing only 2% juice. Its only big leagues. Small leagues there could be 4-5% juice even with pinnacle
200 bets are enough for betting. Second thing is most of bookies let you bet 20-50bets. So 20k bankroll you dont have to consider variation
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antemartic
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Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2016, 08:13:28 PM »

All money I made in last 5 years 90% of it is from value. And in last 5 years there was time when my roi was over 20%. Who say value are just on softs??? If you good enough you will be able to find value at pinnacle. Last year at pinnacle with huge number of picks I had there roi 8%. So my advice if you can choose arb or value and have enough cash go value. but if you have for example 10 000 you can place just 50 eur if go value. but with same amount of money you can arb 1 000 or more. so for start go arb and later move to value.
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antemartic
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Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2016, 09:10:45 PM »

most time it was on markets which sharp does't have. I was betting on my bet365 account 10 years. 6 years losing money and 4 years making money there. And now first bet placed on that market limit 1/4 and second bet account is 1%.( it's not important is stake 10 or 1000) That market never shown at any service like arb. Most peoples here think if it's arb than is value and that's only value they see. Yes it's true. But if find value on other markets which never be involved in any arb your account can least longer and much higher value can be found there
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yorkjoss
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Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2016, 10:13:46 PM »

one word, variance

if you're gong to value bet (by yourself) you better have large pockets, strong nerve and be
prepared for a long haul,

value betting is being talked up here as there's a product coming out to be flogged!

sure you can be a success at value betting, but the clue's in the name, you are betting
and you can lose too, variance cannot be your enemy, better to arb, we are here for guaranteed
profits after all, but if you are to discuss value betting properly then the likelihood of little or no
profit exists.

sure the less well informed can be exploited, sign up with the dominant guys and they take the cream,
they may not drive a Ferrari but they certainly can afford to buy just about any car, unlike those they
claim to be helping.

yes, talk up value betting for the right reasons, sure the smart guys succeed at this, these are guys
who work by themselves, take 100% of the risks and 100% of the profits, most arbers prefer the guaranteed
profit and won't even value bet on a palp!
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 10:21:48 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 06:05:04 AM »

Max,
I make the bets within 30 minutes to game time so maybe its not targeted as much by the Books for limitation.
I also only do the "popular" sports that has a lot of amateur bettors.
Since May I got limited at 188 and that's it.
Back in the arbing days, well we know how quickly accounts get used up.
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Bubbles
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Bubbles

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 12:21:44 PM »

See your point. Is it commonly shared experience that bookies see it too and don't limit value bettors?
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dealer wins
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dealer wins

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #21 on: October 25, 2016, 01:02:05 PM »

Im not convinced about taking negative arbs on the soft side.  Surely that will result in a loss in the long run? 
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testez
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testez

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #22 on: October 25, 2016, 01:43:54 PM »

Im not convinced about taking negative arbs on the soft side.  Surely that will result in a loss in the long run?

on main sports, leagues and markets if u beat the sharps odds at least by their margins u should be fine long term even if the arb is a negative one.
should go without saying that taking the "soft" odds closer to the starting point is important.

P.S. most ppl should leave negative arbs alone though.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #23 on: October 25, 2016, 02:42:35 PM »

I think its statistical thing that taking soft side vs pinn you are winning. BUT pinn lines cannot be truthul when it comes to AI who says precise odds for event. I see it sometimes when i make valuebet my favourite event and i know more about that event
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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #24 on: October 25, 2016, 06:47:35 PM »

Was playing with a Arb calculator and thought I'd break down some math for those who (like me back in the day) are like wtf are they talking about?

We'll keep the odds simple to follow.........

At odds of +105 (Soft-B) / -105 (Pinny) (American Odds) there is no Arb.
But it could be a value bet depending on the value threshold % that you are targeting.
In order to keep this simple we're not gonna tally the added in vig which for Pinny seems to be around 2-3% for the sports I deal with.
Let's say you factor in the Vig into your targeted value % and let's say for example you decide to go for a 7% or better price.

Then you could place a bet at Soft-B  at odds of +102 and up.

This may be the reason that value betting accounts last longer than arbing accounts.

It also may be that if you are monitoring these odds on your own (which I do), you are not 1 of 100 people trying to get a max bet in at the same moment 2 days before the start of the game that arbing software lists them ( I make bets a half hour before start time).

Are there going to be times that Arbing opportunities and VB opportunities over lap, you betcha.

But are the only bets that you are placing Arbs, nope.

***Fun fact- For baseball Unders if the home team leads that's 3 less outs (5.6% less outs) that you have to dodge at the end of the game.***

« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 06:58:18 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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RoosterDonky
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RoosterDonky

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #25 on: October 25, 2016, 09:02:56 PM »

IMO each Books are going to offer odds / prices based on their clients habits.
If you own a store and sell shirts, if you would be happy with the profit of selling a shirt that cost you $4 at $9 but knowing that your customers will pay $10 you're likely to ask $10.
Some sites don't offer good odds on underdogs as you said though.
Some have alternative lines offered in which they figure the price wrong.
Example- Pinny says Baltimore U 40 in nfl is -105
Sometimes you'll find sites that have Baltimore U 41 -107
I come across this alot and it is an extreme joy to pounce on.
As far as the arbing question I have no idea, I haven't done arbing in a while as there were certain things (Gray areas) that I didn't want to do to continue.
So that's what led me to do what I am doing now, that and the numerous comments from others and my applicable experience as to seeing that I was having to replenish my Pinny BR constantly.
« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 09:26:51 PM by RoosterDonky » Logged

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obykoo
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obykoo

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2016, 04:27:42 PM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..


https://en.surebet.com/wiki/Valuebets -> I find this guide pretty helpful at what are valuebets and what are ways to find them , if someone still do not know what is this thread about.

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tarzan
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tarzan

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »

Of course is hard,arbing is also hard...but is not immpossible!
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obykoo
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obykoo

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2016, 07:50:39 PM »

Well arbing is not hard at all  until you get limited in all possible bookers..

Anyway I highly doubt that someone profitable with value bets in sharps like pinnacle would even care to visit this forum or share his ideas or income with someone... he can make really big income from it , so noone would be that stupid to share it.
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ProfGambler
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ProfGambler

Re: valuebet vs arbitrage
« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2016, 01:05:09 AM »

If you could find enough valuebets in sharp and have long term profit, you already would be millionaire...
it much easier to find values in softbooks , but once you are in profit , you can expect limits, no matter what you were betting..

Exactly that's my point. Once softbooks realize that you are in profit, you will be banned or limited. Then what you will do or how many fake accounts you will make?????

This is why I am saying again, if your bets are getting accepted in softbooks, you are a cash cow for softbook and living in a bubble.

Nobody got rich finding value in softbooks as he will be banned instantly. Some stupid guy send me personal message telling me his friend made $100,000 and he himself made $9000 in August without sending any proof. Why somebody will listen to these idiots is beyond me.

It's been touted many times on this forum that value bets are more profitable and even brings returns of 3-8%. When I challenge anybody give me return of 3%, admin called me greedy and said edge is 0.25-0.5%.

Everybody has to sell something to make money. This website where you and me are posting is making money through affiliates and sponsors. Sponsors are making money by creating a product like betburger/rebel betting. If some new product is coming in market for value betting, they will make money by selling valuebets to newbies.

Just ask a question to yourself, if there is any real money in value betting, why these people are not making money themselves? It's because they can't. Once they start making money, they will be banned or limited on any softbook. So they have to sell the dreams to newbies to make money.

Having said that, I have seen on this forum, it's mostly newbies and small time punters. I have a betting bankrole of $50k and extra $150k in my saving accounts which is not for gambling but for other purpose. I am only 31 years old and I have realized that arbing/value betting is for immature or small minded person. Real money is in product development. If you see a new betting product soon in Australian market, don't be surprised who is behind this product. 

Best of luck everyone and specially to those who think doing 1000's of $2 value bets will make them rich. Good Luck
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