I make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race.
Quote from: dejected on October 29, 2016, 06:27:14 PMI make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race. The day before the race they can be anywhere. I'm happy that you added “only small stakes” Regarding bookies, guess what? We don't actually like them that much here as well Anyway, have a nice ride
Quote from: Bubbles on October 29, 2016, 09:28:39 PMQuote from: dejected on October 29, 2016, 06:27:14 PMI make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race. The day before the race they can be anywhere. I'm happy that you added “only small stakes” Regarding bookies, guess what? We don't actually like them that much here as well Anyway, have a nice ride From the posts I've read, and its not many, the feeling about bookies here is very different to where I came from. Arbers understand why bookies need to restrict. Traditional horse racing value punters do not. They get upset because what they used to do does not work any more. They think the government should protect them, good luck with that one! The internet and exchanges completely changed the market place and they find that hard to accept.UK Horse racing is very different to most markets. A lot of the information is not in the public domain, it is almost impossible for the books to create efficient lines. 20% line changes in the last 2 minutes are not uncommon. That is why the base books don't offer odds. If you can read the early market correctly, and use that information to your advantage the ROI can be spectacular The reason for the small stakes is not because of the risk. I am confident in what I am doing. Have 3 years data and about 4500 bets at average odds of less than 2/1 showing a ROI of about 50%! The small stakes are to stay under the radar of the softbooks and not get restricted!
Hi Bubbles. Did not think you were being patronising at all! Just thought I needed to add a little bit more about what I have been doing Although I've probably said too much about it already. Don't want those horrible bookies getting wind of what I'm doing. The thread you mentioned was the first I read on here! The response to luctens argument, the fact that people pointed out the flaws in it, made me think I'd like it here!The 2 charts posted by Arbusers are interesting. They come from the secret betting club. One of the guys on my ex forum is actually one of the paid tipsters on there. There is a similar thing showing the responses to the BHA's horse race bettors forum survey on bookmaker restrictions here http://ukhbf.org/account-restrictionclosure-survey/further-details-of-hbfs-account-restrictionclosure-survey/Learning more about bookie restrictions is one of the things I'd like to do, hopefully you guys will be able to help. I have my own ideas about how they work, but that is based mainly on my knowledge and experience. I've tried to guess how the algorithms work, basically how I would code it if I were doing it! I'll start a new thread to discuss it in more detail at some point.
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