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News: If it is not in arbusers, it doesn't exist.

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dejected
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« on: October 29, 2016, 06:27:14 PM »

Just want to say Hi and introduce myself. I'm Dejected, but you can call me Dej  :)

Why Dejected you ask? I have spent the last 3 years as an active member of a private betting forum. Only 200 members, with about 30 posting regularly. I've become a little disheartened with it recently. Hence my name here.

That forum was made up of old school horse racing tipsters, mainly amature, a few pros with their own paid tipster websites. Although as a group they are good at what they do, finding horses at value prices, they are stuck in their ways and not prepared to move with the times. I sort of became a member by accident looking for pricewise tips on a Friday night. (UK horse racing betters will understand that) Studying form for hours is not really my thing. I'm pretty lazy and prefer to do things the easy way.

As I'm sure you all know, betting horses at value prices does not work very well with the current market conditions. If you are any good you get hit by softbook restrictions pretty quick, and base books don't do horses :( . Instead of changing how they operate, they constantly blame the bookies. I tried to explain to them that its not the bookies fault. If softbooks don't restrict they get taken to the cleaners by you guys, but they would not have it. All I ever got back was bookies are the scurge of the earth. Personally I like bookies, they give me free money  ;)

I'm a pretty argumentative soul as you will find out as you get to know me. I find the best way to learn is to question (argue) someones position /methods and see how well they can defend it. That does not go down too well with old school guys. This is my tip, like it or lump it! The arguments were getting more personal as I questioned more and more their methods. Time had come for a change of scene.

A bit more about me. I'm a software engineer by trade. But now live in the sun and make a living (a VERY modest one) from the odd website and gambling. I like writing my own tools, api's, scrapers, betting simulators, arb finders :)

I do run a small horse racing paid tipping site, only about 15 members. It is not form based, I make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race. The bets are designed in such a way as they don't look like arbs although they are very much based on the price being wrong. Only small stakes but you would be shocked if I told you the ROI. Been doing it for 3 years and its still working! Obviously It does need a softbook account to operate, and at the moment I still have quite a few :) As I do the bets myself I want to keep the site under the radar for now and won't be mentioning it any more on here.

Reading a few posts I think I have found my spiritual home. You guys seem to have a similar attitude to me. If someone gets upset when you question there methods, there is probably something wrong with their methods!

That's about it. Bit long for a first post! Any questions?

Hope we are going to have some fun together!
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2016, 07:05:15 PM »

Welcome!!!!!!!!!
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testez
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2016, 07:06:14 PM »

welcome dude ))))
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moneymatt
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2016, 07:09:08 PM »

Ola fellow newbie!
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dejected
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2016, 08:00:03 PM »

Welcome!!!!!!!!!

Hi Rooster. Was reading the value v arbitrage thread earlier, have you joined the "association" yet :)

I'm a value guy myself coming from the UK and a horse racing background. Although the arbers have screwed that up a little! Apparently with the soft books that have restricted me I'm an arber! But my definition of value is probably different to most guys on here! I'm looking for 50%+ instead of 0.5%   ;)
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Bubbles
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2016, 09:28:39 PM »

I make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race.
The day before the race they can be anywhere. I'm happy that you added “only small stakes” ;)

Regarding bookies, guess what? We don't actually like them that much here as well ;)

Anyway, have a nice ride :)
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dejected
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2016, 11:26:02 PM »

I make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race.
The day before the race they can be anywhere. I'm happy that you added “only small stakes” ;)

Regarding bookies, guess what? We don't actually like them that much here as well ;)

Anyway, have a nice ride :)

From the posts I've read, and its not many, the feeling about bookies here is very different to where I came from. Arbers understand why bookies need to restrict. Traditional horse racing value punters do not. They get upset because what they used to do does not work any more. They think the government should protect them, good luck with that one! The internet and exchanges completely changed the market place and they find that hard to accept.

UK Horse racing is very different to most markets. A lot  of the information is not in the public domain, it is almost impossible for the books to create efficient lines. 20% line changes in the last 2 minutes are not uncommon. That is why the base books don't offer odds. If you can read the early market correctly, and use that information to your advantage the ROI can be spectacular :)

The reason for the small stakes is not because of the risk. I am confident in what I am doing. Have 3 years data and about 4500 bets at average odds of less than 2/1 showing a ROI of about 50%! The small stakes are to stay under the radar of the softbooks and not get restricted!
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dejected
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2016, 11:49:30 PM »

Just for comparison, if I were to arb my bets and lay them off at betfair starting price (not strictly arbing, more like trading, but would reduce variance significantly), the return on this years figures would be a ROI or 6.12%. Keep stats guys, probably the most important thing I've learnt on my journey :) Gives you an idea of what can be achieved by value betting instead of arbing. Yes my variance is much higher, I've had 3 loosing months out of 10 so far this year, but my current ROI on the year is 60.84%. Personally I think the ROI is worth it :) The small stakes and how I am backing them keep the soft book accounts alive, been 3 years now without restrictions. If I were to try and get the same monetary return by arbing, i.e. with a much lower ROI and much higher staking, I'm pretty sure the accounts would have gone a long time ago. Using my figures I would have to stake 10 times on an arb what I do on the value bet for the same return. In my experience the bookies restrict based on how you bet and not how much you win. That said I'm here to learn, your experiences may be different to mine. I know, you don't believe my figures, but they are genuine :)
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 12:13:45 AM by dejected » Logged

RoosterDonky
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 01:51:22 AM »

Ya there's all types in here dejected.
Haven't been sworn in yet but am eagerly awaiting for an eyes wide shut type initiation, lol.


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Bubbles
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 01:53:20 AM »

I make the selections based on the betfair market the day before the race.
The day before the race they can be anywhere. I'm happy that you added “only small stakes” ;)

Regarding bookies, guess what? We don't actually like them that much here as well ;)

Anyway, have a nice ride :)

From the posts I've read, and its not many, the feeling about bookies here is very different to where I came from. Arbers understand why bookies need to restrict. Traditional horse racing value punters do not. They get upset because what they used to do does not work any more. They think the government should protect them, good luck with that one! The internet and exchanges completely changed the market place and they find that hard to accept.

UK Horse racing is very different to most markets. A lot  of the information is not in the public domain, it is almost impossible for the books to create efficient lines. 20% line changes in the last 2 minutes are not uncommon. That is why the base books don't offer odds. If you can read the early market correctly, and use that information to your advantage the ROI can be spectacular :)

The reason for the small stakes is not because of the risk. I am confident in what I am doing. Have 3 years data and about 4500 bets at average odds of less than 2/1 showing a ROI of about 50%! The small stakes are to stay under the radar of the softbooks and not get restricted!
You got me wrong, I wasn't patronising. What I meant was more along the lines: I'm happy that you added it because now it sounds like you know what you're talking about. Sometimes you read posts from new people coming to any forum trying to sound knowledgeable by writing things that just don't add up ;)
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Bubbles
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 01:58:42 AM »

"Arbers understand why bookies need to restrict."

There are heated debates about it...

http://arbusers.com/index.php/topic,4417.0.html
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dejected
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 08:39:17 AM »

Hi Bubbles. Did not think you were being patronising at all! Just thought I needed to add a little bit more about what I have been doing :) Although I've probably said too much about it already. Don't want those horrible bookies getting wind of what I'm doing.

The thread you mentioned was the first I read on here! The response to luctens argument, the fact that people pointed out the flaws in it, made me think I'd like it here!

The 2 charts posted by Arbusers are interesting. They come from the secret betting club. One of the guys on my ex forum is actually one of the paid tipsters on there. There is a similar thing showing the responses to the BHA's horse race bettors forum survey on bookmaker restrictions here http://ukhbf.org/account-restrictionclosure-survey/further-details-of-hbfs-account-restrictionclosure-survey/

Learning more about bookie restrictions is one of the things I'd like to do, hopefully you guys will be able to help. I have my own ideas about how they work, but that is based mainly on my knowledge and experience. I've tried to guess how the algorithms work, basically how I would code it if I were doing it! I'll start a new thread to discuss it in more detail at some point.
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 09:10:25 AM »

Hi Bubbles. Did not think you were being patronising at all! Just thought I needed to add a little bit more about what I have been doing :) Although I've probably said too much about it already. Don't want those horrible bookies getting wind of what I'm doing.

The thread you mentioned was the first I read on here! The response to luctens argument, the fact that people pointed out the flaws in it, made me think I'd like it here!

The 2 charts posted by Arbusers are interesting. They come from the secret betting club. One of the guys on my ex forum is actually one of the paid tipsters on there. There is a similar thing showing the responses to the BHA's horse race bettors forum survey on bookmaker restrictions here http://ukhbf.org/account-restrictionclosure-survey/further-details-of-hbfs-account-restrictionclosure-survey/

Learning more about bookie restrictions is one of the things I'd like to do, hopefully you guys will be able to help. I have my own ideas about how they work, but that is based mainly on my knowledge and experience. I've tried to guess how the algorithms work, basically how I would code it if I were doing it! I'll start a new thread to discuss it in more detail at some point.


I think they simply program the algorythm to check if the odds you take consistently are shortened quickly after you've placed the bet and add in a certain bet amount or "max win" threshold to that.  E.g. if you always places bets for 5€ and the odds shorten immediately they'll leave you alone for quite a while but if you do that for 1k daily, they'll close you down very fast. 

I'm not 100% sure if the timing of the bet matters.  If you consistently place bets where the odds don't shorten immediately but you do beat the closing line, in my experience some bookies don't care but others will limit you as well.
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dejected
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 10:24:02 AM »

Hi Alfa, Personally what I think they do is calculate the expected win from all your bets and if it goes over a certain threshold then your account gets flagged and restrictions soon follow. By expected win I mean the EV of your bet multiplied by your stake. So there are 2 factors that determine if you are restricted, How much you beat the closing line by (EV) and the size of your stake.

There are also a few other reasons for restrictions / closures , suspected duplicate accounts, suspect third party accounts which they detect using software like ieshare, and more recently, data matching software.

I will start another thread to discuss it at some point going in to more details of how I think it works, then you can all shoot me down!
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Bubbles
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 10:57:37 AM »

"The reason for the small stakes is not because of the risk. I am confident in what I am doing. Have 3 years data and about 4500 bets at average odds of less than 2/1 showing a ROI of about 50%! The small stakes are to stay under the radar of the softbooks and not get restricted!"

If you have a clear edge and are confident of it why not take the max stake (liquiditywise and bankrollwise) and trade out before the start of a race? This way you maximise your profit and get rid of all the hassle with bookies at the same time. I know, PC but considering your edge it might be worth chewing over
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