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How linear is arbitrage growth?

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Author Topic: How linear is arbitrage growth?  (Read 708 times)
moneymatt
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« on: October 30, 2016, 07:29:03 PM »

Firstly, apologises for starting a new thread every half minute, and thanks to the more experienced users who continually offer advice. It’s invaluable. Really.

To my point…

The number that continually crops up on most material I read is 10%. That’s a 10% R.O.I you can expect month on month from your starting capital. More specific sources say 6-12%.

As an example…

If I start with 12k capital, if I stake 5% of that capital on 3 daily arbs at an average of 2.22%, then I make the target suggested 10% R.O.I.

If after 24 months of continuously reinvesting my 10% profit, my capital will be £118,196.79. (Sceptical emoji face)
I’m going ahead with my arbitrage adventure regardless, and I’m expecting it to be lucrative, just not as lucrative as my ‘ideal’ spread sheet is telling me it will be.

So, while there are some obvious factors and variables that will effect this growth, my questions are…

How accurate have experienced traders found these numbers? How linear is the growth? What are the major factors preventing this growth from being linear month on month?

Basically - Is my spreadsheet talking sh*t, and if so, why?

Matt


 
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:52:33 PM »

Max bet in unrestricted accounts will stop the growth, betting limits, lack of unlimited accounts...  As your bankroll grows you will find it more difficult to invest it 100%.  How quickly you'll reach that will depend on how "good" you've become at it.  Only way to find out is to try and see where your personal limit lies, no point in theorizing what your potential profits can be and dream about it if you haven't placed any bets yet.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 08:20:09 PM »

Depends on the person really - you can't grow exponentially forever because you will run out of books

People also evolve to other things and other investments

In my case (being a lazy git) I've found a level which I'm happy with and make roughly the same profit every week without the need for increasingly suspect bookies, multiple IDs or other tricks people use

In my case I'm happy with the return for the effort I put in - others will probably want to be more dynamic and make as much as they can while they can and a growth percentage is very hard to predict
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maletaja
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 08:31:25 PM »

I hate any word ROi and return in that business. U rely on bookies and anything can change. No point of dreaming of what if you have 1000000000$ and get 30% return...?
For example if 2 bookies wont pay me some reason(luckily today ok) and i dont want to go court with them , then i probably quit. No point on taking withdrawal risks
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 08:35:06 PM by maletaja » Logged

moneymatt
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 08:44:50 PM »


Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 08:46:34 PM »

I hate any word ROi and return in that business. U rely on bookies and anything can change. No point of dream of what if you have 1000000000$ and get 30% return...?

Exactly - you never know what fun and games the industry will hit us with next and the "consumption tax" was a hit for every UK arber which is why I started branching out into other things for a while - you can't predict which bookies will limit you and what that limit will be - all you can do is look back and say "that was a good month"

There is no way you can utilise you whole bankroll every single day you arb so trying to project your bankroll or earnings in 2 years time is pretty pointless and is not worth worrying about  - aim for a minimum profit per week or month and anything above that treat as a bonus

Don't forget even experienced arbers still make mistakes and that will cut into your profits too - there are so many things that can and will go wrong from making a mistake to your internet connection dying after one side of the arb is placed so don't take anything for granted - especially what you may be earning in the future

My attitude now is that any day without making a mistake is a profitable day - if you put pressure on yourself and worry about hitting a set ROI then you take your eye off the ball and then make a mistake and are back to square one - same as any job, the more pressure you put yourself under the harder it will be
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yorkjoss
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 08:53:50 PM »


Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

have you decided what you going to spend your £118,196.79 on yet? ;D
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 09:02:40 PM by yorkjoss » Logged

moneymatt
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 08:58:02 PM »


Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

Because I'd never start a sentence without a capital letter.
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yorkjoss
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 09:04:54 PM »


Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

Because I'd never start a sentence without a capital letter.

yes and you end most of them with a question mark

forget the free lunch, none of the top guys even post on here and certainly don't answer your questions,
so many lazy guys like you wanting it handed on a plate, I'm doing you a favour, you just don't realise it,

to be successful you have to learn by yourself, no one learns on here from your type of questions, they've
all been asked in some form hundreds of times, if you weren't so lazy, you'd read the forum and see the answers to every question you have.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 09:26:58 PM by yorkjoss » Logged

Alfa1234
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 09:08:19 PM »

Matt, it may seem harsh but there is a core of thruth to it.  There really is no point in making a spreadsheet about how you can compound your earnings if you haven't even started yet and still have to make your first cent.  No need to get real nasty about it...
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Ingarb3
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« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 09:18:10 PM »

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

Errrr...wtf? :o
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barbero
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« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 09:22:09 PM »

Matt, even if yorkjoss is pretty cutting in his speech, he couldn't be more right in his message... you just need to find your own way man, and that's done by practicing, trying things out, and not speculating about how much you will be making. There's people here in the forum willing to help, actually if you read around you will find people help each other in many ways but of course noone will give it all away to others - gotta work your own path up there. yorkjoss is helping you, actually, he could have just not taken the time to reply, but he did and very appropriately told you that dreaming will take you nowhere...

What you cannot do is expect you will be making thousands in your first month, or your second, or your third... It takes some time to get a hold of it, and then you will be ready to make money. But take it easy during your first few months, educate yourself and you will do just fine.
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Alfa1234
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« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 09:24:15 PM »

Matt, even if yorkjoss is pretty cutting in his speech, he couldn't be more right in his message... you just need to find your own way man, and that's done by practicing, trying things out, and not speculating about how much you will be making. There's people here in the forum willing to help, actually if you read around you will find people help each other in many ways but of course noone will give it all away to others - gotta work your own path up there. yorkjoss is helping you, actually, he could have just not taken the time to reply, but he did and very appropriately told you that dreaming will take you nowhere...

What you cannot do is expect you will be making thousands in your first month, or your second, or your third... It takes some time to get a hold of it, and then you will be ready to make money. But take it easy during your first few months, educate yourself and you will do just fine.

That should be modified a little and put up as a sticky on top to "read before you make your first post".   :D
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moneymatt
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« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 09:37:33 PM »

The common opinion here seems to be that those numbers were forecast predictions when it was simply a theoretical hypothesis.
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MaxShalamar
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 09:48:07 PM »

The common opinion here seems to be that those numbers were forecast predictions when it was simply a theoretical hypothesis.

TBH those sort of figures are dreamt up to sell things like arb services - I doubt if most arbers make more than 4-5% ROI - it's not something most people worry about though - they just keep making the money to invest elsewhere

I suppose it's possible to make 10% but it would involve taking risks IMO
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