How linear is arbitrage growth?

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moneymatt
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moneymatt

How linear is arbitrage growth?
« on: October 30, 2016, 07:29:03 PM »

Firstly, apologises for starting a new thread every half minute, and thanks to the more experienced users who continually offer advice. It’s invaluable. Really.

To my point…

The number that continually crops up on most material I read is 10%. That’s a 10% R.O.I you can expect month on month from your starting capital. More specific sources say 6-12%.

As an example…

If I start with 12k capital, if I stake 5% of that capital on 3 daily arbs at an average of 2.22%, then I make the target suggested 10% R.O.I.

If after 24 months of continuously reinvesting my 10% profit, my capital will be £118,196.79. (Sceptical emoji face)
I’m going ahead with my arbitrage adventure regardless, and I’m expecting it to be lucrative, just not as lucrative as my ‘ideal’ spread sheet is telling me it will be.

So, while there are some obvious factors and variables that will effect this growth, my questions are…

How accurate have experienced traders found these numbers? How linear is the growth? What are the major factors preventing this growth from being linear month on month?

Basically - Is my spreadsheet talking sh*t, and if so, why?

Matt


 
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Alfa1234
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2016, 07:52:33 PM »

Max bet in unrestricted accounts will stop the growth, betting limits, lack of unlimited accounts...  As your bankroll grows you will find it more difficult to invest it 100%.  How quickly you'll reach that will depend on how "good" you've become at it.  Only way to find out is to try and see where your personal limit lies, no point in theorizing what your potential profits can be and dream about it if you haven't placed any bets yet.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2016, 08:31:25 PM »

I hate any word ROi and return in that business. U rely on bookies and anything can change. No point of dreaming of what if you have 1000000000$ and get 30% return...?
For example if 2 bookies wont pay me some reason(luckily today ok) and i dont want to go court with them , then i probably quit. No point on taking withdrawal risks
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 08:35:06 PM by maletaja » Logged
moneymatt
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2016, 08:44:50 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.
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yorkjoss
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2016, 08:53:50 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
bbc_standard_quote">
Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

have you decided what you going to spend your £118,196.79 on yet? ;D
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 09:02:40 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
moneymatt
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moneymatt

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2016, 08:58:02 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

Because I'd never start a sentence without a capital letter.
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yorkjoss
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2016, 09:04:54 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
bbc_standard_quote">
bbc_alternate_quote">
bbc_standard_quote">
Matt


your spreadsheets not talking shit............you are

soon you will wake up from your arbing dreams and discover reality,
to be counting your profit before you've even started, where do some of you guys come from?

I've read some ridiculous posts on here but yours "takes the biscuit"

12k into £118,196.79 in 2 years.......you'll be lucky if you make the 79p ;D

I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

oh sorry did I wake you up from your dream?

why don't you just post this,

hey guys I've discovered this arbing thing, I've not got a clue really and was hoping you experienced guys
on here can tell me all you know, I'm already dreaming about all this money I am going to make and can't wait,
if you can be so kind to tell me all you know that would be great? then I can start this arbing thing you all write about, after all it sounds so easy, just hand it to me on a plate please, that would be just great, thanks

Because I'd never start a sentence without a capital letter.

yes and you end most of them with a question mark

forget the free lunch, none of the top guys even post on here and certainly don't answer your questions,
so many lazy guys like you wanting it handed on a plate, I'm doing you a favour, you just don't realise it,

to be successful you have to learn by yourself, no one learns on here from your type of questions, they've
all been asked in some form hundreds of times, if you weren't so lazy, you'd read the forum and see the answers to every question you have.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 09:26:58 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2016, 09:08:19 PM »

Matt, it may seem harsh but there is a core of thruth to it.  There really is no point in making a spreadsheet about how you can compound your earnings if you haven't even started yet and still have to make your first cent.  No need to get real nasty about it...
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Ingarb3
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Ingarb3

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2016, 09:18:10 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">I hope you get cancer. Thanks for your help.

Errrr...wtf? :o
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barbero
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barbero

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2016, 09:22:09 PM »

Matt, even if yorkjoss is pretty cutting in his speech, he couldn't be more right in his message... you just need to find your own way man, and that's done by practicing, trying things out, and not speculating about how much you will be making. There's people here in the forum willing to help, actually if you read around you will find people help each other in many ways but of course noone will give it all away to others - gotta work your own path up there. yorkjoss is helping you, actually, he could have just not taken the time to reply, but he did and very appropriately told you that dreaming will take you nowhere...

What you cannot do is expect you will be making thousands in your first month, or your second, or your third... It takes some time to get a hold of it, and then you will be ready to make money. But take it easy during your first few months, educate yourself and you will do just fine.
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #10 on: October 30, 2016, 09:24:15 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">Matt, even if yorkjoss is pretty cutting in his speech, he couldn't be more right in his message... you just need to find your own way man, and that's done by practicing, trying things out, and not speculating about how much you will be making. There's people here in the forum willing to help, actually if you read around you will find people help each other in many ways but of course noone will give it all away to others - gotta work your own path up there. yorkjoss is helping you, actually, he could have just not taken the time to reply, but he did and very appropriately told you that dreaming will take you nowhere...

What you cannot do is expect you will be making thousands in your first month, or your second, or your third... It takes some time to get a hold of it, and then you will be ready to make money. But take it easy during your first few months, educate yourself and you will do just fine.

That should be modified a little and put up as a sticky on top to "read before you make your first post".   :D
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moneymatt
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moneymatt

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #11 on: October 30, 2016, 09:37:33 PM »

The common opinion here seems to be that those numbers were forecast predictions when it was simply a theoretical hypothesis.
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barbero
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #12 on: October 30, 2016, 09:53:31 PM »

It's just pointless to hypothesize as you will come nowhere near: it's simply too difficult or impossible to predict.

What you need to do is start arbing and with time you will see what profit level you can attain. We've already seen some guys before you open like 10 threads before they place a single bet, asking about very different issues that simply arise during the journey: as in any other subject, you can't learn it everything before you start. Of course it is good, or even great, that you read and think before you start. But surely one day the time to pull the starting gun must arrive, right? Go for it man and you will find out if it suits you and your expectations.

Remember, we're here to help. If I wouldn't want to help I wouldn't even answer  :)
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yorkjoss
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yorkjoss

Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #13 on: October 30, 2016, 09:54:38 PM »

bbc_standard_quote">The common opinion here seems to be that those numbers were forecast predictions when it was simply a theoretical hypothesis.

"I’m going ahead with my arbitrage adventure regardless, and I’m expecting it to be lucrative"
quoting you earlier

I don't use words like "theoretical hypothesis" nor by the way would I wish anyone cancer but when I discovered
arbing, I worked hard, taught myself, wasn't lazy, I've met a few experienced guys, chatted to a few as well,
never met a successful arber yet who wasn't smart enough to figure it out by himself.

your "cancer" remark illustrates what type of person you are, you may be a clever guy with all your fancy words
but you've not got what it takes for arbing, anyone who has to ask all the questions you do has not got the aptitude needed for arbing, no one on hear is going to tell you what you want to know, of all the idiots who've ever
been on here you take the prize as number 1,  go ahead with your arbing adventure which you are expecting to be lucrative, turning 12k into 118k in 2 years, there possibly are guys who could do that, me being one ;)
« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 10:30:47 PM by yorkjoss » Logged
moneymatt
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Re: How linear is arbitrage growth?
« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2016, 10:15:45 PM »

yorkjoss,

The number of assumptions you have made about me, my personal attributes, my work ethic, my expectations and current level of success, really... "take the biscuit" <--- correct use of quotation marks.

A "theoretical hypothesis"... for your sake, is... make believe. Something you are not necessarily expecting to happen but in theory, could.

Theory doesn't consider all the factors that prevent the outcome from happening.

I'm sorry you are angry. I'm sorry my cancer banter made you upset. It was simply that... banter.

 

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