Live value betting

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Live value betting  (Read 2482 times)
tarzan
Has some experience
**

Karma: -3
Posts: 129


View Profile

tarzan

Live value betting
« on: November 07, 2016, 04:27:12 AM »

Somebody to share experience with live value betting?!
Is this the same like pre-match value betting?
Or there is some "catch"?
I can not find any info about it!
Logged
gamblehappier
Has some experience
**

Karma: -2
Posts: 101


View Profile

gamblehappier

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2016, 09:21:46 PM »

Hey tarzan,think it logiccally live value betting is the same as prematch in case you bet against pinni,bigger leagues more trustable prices so better value. ;)Nothing change for me if it is live or prematch).
Logged
Alfa1234
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: 8
Posts: 492


View Profile

Alfa1234

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2016, 11:40:25 PM »

I'm not so sure, I read an interesting article about this somewhere but I can't find it now.  I believe the conclusion was, that Pinnacle was less sharp for live games.
Logged
Bubbles
Getting better
***

Karma: 6
Posts: 272


View Profile

Bubbles

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #3 on: November 10, 2016, 12:05:43 PM »

I read something similar, thought it was on this forum but couldn't locate it (maybe in the middle of a thread dedicated to sth else?), definitely more tricky according to the author...
Logged
kustef
Has some experience
**

Karma: 5
Posts: 192


View Profile

kustef

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2016, 03:20:09 PM »

for prematch valuebets you turnover money once per match.. On live markets you can 3 times per match :) do maths
Logged
CampeR
Newbie
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 6


View Profile

CampeR

a
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2017, 10:45:08 PM »

.a
« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 02:13:48 PM by CampeR » Logged
maletaja
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -23
Posts: 340


View Profile

maletaja

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2017, 12:16:07 PM »

In theory you should make only valuebets. Juices are even much bigger in live 10%+. If u try to cover pinnacle u lose much moneyIt doesnt really depend which league it is. Great sample you hit nice margin otherwise pinnacle live bets create massive losses
Logged
bookieslayer
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 68


View Profile

bookieslayer

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2017, 01:38:21 AM »

I do a lot of live value betting and some live arbing

Much more value but more risky also

Let's say I price a tennis player at 1.90 and I am getting offered 2.0 pre match. Obviously I take the 2.0 as it's value for me. But then I watch the match and in the first game my player has his serve broken. I now price this tennis player at 2.10 but I am being offered 2.50 in live markets. Obviously I this is even more value than before and I take it.
Also I can bet much more in live markets as as soon as the second game starts the odds will obviously keep changing slightly... it's all just set on algorithms I imagine. So let's say second game starts and now my player goes up 15-0. Now I am being offered 2.40 and since it's still value I can wack another bet on. Next point it goes 15-15 and price goes back to 2.50 where I can wack another bet on again. Much easier to get a lot of volume in doing it this way.

The draw back as this all happens very fast, and obviously your success as a value bettor depends on your ability to correctly price matches correctly. I made many mistakes learning this and it's the toughest mentally for me. It's also very important to be self reflective and real.. as you can quickly spew through some of your bank roll if you are not in a good mind space and practicing basic betting rules like bank roll management with stop loos etc etc

Although this has the most risk this has produced the largest roi for me. It also highly depends on you having expertise in the sport market you are betting so you can constantly keep evaluating value opportunities.
Also every book has slightly different algorithms, to be successful you have to get used to these algorithms.
For example, in the example above... some books will overreact when a player is broken first game and offer 2.70, some will under react and offer 2.25. In the sport/market I bet, a lot of the time I already know the odd the book will offer me before the event has happened.So if the player is about to be broken I know what odd the book will offer me therefore I can quickly decide if it's value or not, then as soon as it appears I can take it. This only comes from experience.

I am sure it's actually not that difficult to work out the algorithm some of the books work on. Although I'm shit at math so I leave that alone.
Logged
maletaja
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -23
Posts: 340


View Profile

maletaja

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2017, 05:37:53 AM »

Quote
Let's say I price a tennis player at 1.90 and I am getting offered 2.0 pre match. Obviously I take the 2.0 as it's value for me. But then I watch the match and in the first game my player has his serve broken. I now price this tennis player at 2.10 but I am being offered 2.50 in live markets. Obviously I this is even more value than before and I take it.

Yeah right...if your player loses first serving game, then 2.5 isnt valuebet, but situation has dramatically changed. Mens tennis, if someone brokes opponent serve, then set is basically lost
Logged
dealer wins
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -8
Posts: 469



View Profile

dealer wins

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2017, 08:59:28 AM »



Yeah right...if your player loses first serving game, then 2.5 isnt valuebet, but situation has dramatically changed. Mens tennis, if someone brokes opponent serve, then set is basically lost

With respect thats not correct.  But I do think that 2.5 odds are about right and not a value bet in the scenario described.  Im not an expert though and I could be wrong, if hes consistantly making money then we are probably both wrong lol
Logged

Never trust a goose!!!
Bubbles
Getting better
***

Karma: 6
Posts: 272


View Profile

Bubbles

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2017, 03:49:03 PM »

Although this has the most risk this has produced the largest roi for me.
I don't know number of your bets but if it's not very large be careful with it, you may be just running your luck.
Logged
bookieslayer
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 68


View Profile

bookieslayer

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2017, 10:30:59 PM »



Yeah right...if your player loses first serving game, then 2.5 isnt valuebet, but situation has dramatically changed. Mens tennis, if someone brokes opponent serve, then set is basically lost

With respect thats not correct.  But I do think that 2.5 odds are about right and not a value bet in the scenario described.  Im not an expert though and I could be wrong, if hes consistantly making money then we are probably both wrong lol

It's certainly not correct Dealer and maletaja's comment shows a high degree of ignorance I can't be bothered replying to. The specific 2.5 odds are just an example, nothing more.
Logged
bookieslayer
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 68


View Profile

bookieslayer

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2017, 10:35:12 PM »

Although this has the most risk this has produced the largest roi for me.
I don't know number of your bets but if it's not very large be careful with it, you may be just running your luck.

Thanks for your concern and I am very careful with it. This type of betting has extreme variance and you can only be successful if you have a firm understanding of the variance in your particular sport/market. I have a large sample size of bets and I follow a bank roll management plan plus stop loss. I also come from a poker back ground so variance has taught me many brutal but vital lessons.
Logged
dealer wins
Probably a Pro
****

Karma: -8
Posts: 469



View Profile

dealer wins

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2017, 10:52:48 PM »

Very interesting about books methods of generating odds during live games.  I imagine they program in starting odds, and current score and generate odds according to the programming, not taking into account the more finer details that would be impossible to program but very important and something pros could take advantage of.  (Things like does the player bottle it on key points, previous tendencies to fade or finish strongly etc etc)
Logged

Never trust a goose!!!
bookieslayer
Newbie
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 68


View Profile

bookieslayer

Re: Live value betting
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2017, 10:23:38 PM »

Very interesting about books methods of generating odds during live games.  I imagine they program in starting odds, and current score and generate odds according to the programming, not taking into account the more finer details that would be impossible to program but very important and something pros could take advantage of.  (Things like does the player bottle it on key points, previous tendencies to fade or finish strongly etc etc)

This is spot on and exactly how I find my value. I talked to someone who is a trader for a bookie and he confirmed that the in game odds are all set of programs. They just put in starting odds and away the program goes as the match gets underway. He said majority of bookies are contracting some company for these programs but seemed to think bet365 had developed it's on programs for a lot of their sports.

Either way, a program is a program and it always behaves the same.
So in sport there will be plenty of opportunities where the programs odds don't marry up with what's actually happen. The better you know your sport the more opportunities you will spot. I term them inflection points and they will arise time and time again as the odds can just never get it right.

A very simple example is just the program values a points lead the same as in the beginning of the match as in the end. In a set of volleyball for example, a team can be down 5-1 in the beginning of a set and it can mean very, very little as to the eventual outcome. But the programmed odds can grossly over exaggerate this 4 point lead creating a great value play on the team down 4 points.
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print