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Is it a solid prediction?

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raizzak
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« on: November 29, 2016, 04:50:13 PM »

I have a serious question i wanna represent to you. I could normally answer it if i wasn't personally biased.

Facts 13 months, 3500 bets, high (and i mean high) turnover 4.4-4.5% yield, sharp bookie

Question number one is it a solid sample size to make solid assumptions?
Question number two is it sustainable? (+- 1% means sustainable to me)
Question number three did i finally made it?

take into account that the condition will stay the same or that i will adapt accordingly
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Bubbles
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« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2016, 05:21:00 PM »

Is the turnover and yield per each month within a stable range or is the variability big? Even if the former is the case it looks promising but imho the sample is still quiet small to draw conclusions. In my betting times I had a similar ride with horses (BF) until it collapsed within two months when I lost all the profit. 

I could normally answer it if i wasn't personally biased.
I'm curious, what would you answer if you weren't personally biased?
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raizzak
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« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2016, 05:55:00 PM »

Month by month
2.2%,16.04%,20.16%,1.24%,-4.2%,12.07%,8.6%,1.1%,0%(completely break even for the history -16euro),-7.3%,-17%,11.84%,7.2%

turnover wise the first 2 months 2.2% and 16.04% were small amount about 1/7 of the avg monthly turvover and the 11th month was 1/4 of the avg turnover all the others roughly the same turnover

I can't answer it for myself but i would probably lean to be good enough
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middler
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« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2016, 06:23:42 PM »

that -17% was around september, right? that was a crazy month indeed..
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« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2016, 06:39:44 PM »

Month by month
2.2%,16.04%,20.16%,1.24%,-4.2%,12.07%,8.6%,1.1%,0%(completely break even for the history -16euro),-7.3%,-17%,11.84%,7.2%

turnover wise the first 2 months 2.2% and 16.04% were small amount about 1/7 of the avg monthly turvover and the 11th month was 1/4 of the avg turnover all the others roughly the same turnover

I can't answer it for myself but i would probably lean to be good enough
Those are very nice numbers and with a sharp book. It's commendable... However... From your post I understand that these are real bets that you bet within past 13 months and not paper testing. You probably used safe money management style as you, very sensibly, tested you approach. Now, as I understand from your questions 1, 2 and 3 you wonder if it's time to increase your stakes and make some serious money. This is the million dollar question that I'm afraid no one will be able to answer for you. Personally, with your numbers I would start increasing them slightly and gradually go up as my bank and confidence grow. It's talking from experience as in the example I gave I lost all profit within two months due to growing to confident and increasing my stakes too fast (as my numbers were also in sensible range - until...)
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raizzak
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« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2016, 06:56:03 PM »

Quote
From your post I understand that these are real bets that you bet within past 13 months and not paper testing
Yeap, imo paper testing is absolutely useless, you can't test your mental toughness with paper testing and it is the most important thing.


Quote
You probably used safe money management style as you, very sensibly, tested you approach
That's not the case i used a very aggressive one (probably i shouldn't though)


Quote
you wonder if it's time to increase your stakes and make some serious money
That's not the case either as i said i have very high turnover (at least for my perspective)


The million dollar question is: Did i reach the point that i should have expectations from it to last? (assuming always that the conditions stay the same, or i adapt)
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KAOS
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« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2016, 07:05:21 PM »

So long as you understand your risk of ruin you can gradually adjust up when winning and down when losing
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RoosterDonky
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« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2016, 07:41:32 PM »

Nice Numbers!
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lukaszs
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« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2016, 07:47:35 PM »

What is average odds? I assume something arround 2.0 (I saw your thread in tipster section). If you used level staking,  3500 bets, average odds 2 with yield 4,4% that would mean p-value metrics is 0,004 and there would be 1:267 probability that profit comes because of luck factor. So yeah..nice numbers :)
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Arbusers
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2016, 08:41:01 PM »

The system looks sustainable. However, I noticed 2 periods over the season when a lot of strange things happen. First, around October, when everything goes wrong. Second around April. If you feel that a storm like this is coming you should reduce the staking.
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raizzak
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2016, 09:11:42 PM »

Well the period that pretty much everything goes wrong is July to September, i think i have an explanation to what happened and i believe i learned my lesson. I am focusing at certain sports/leagues that at this period they are mostly out of season. The genius thing i did was an attemt to tackle some new sports/leagues (rugby and Latin  soccer  plus the Olympics to be exact) and i failed miserably while a very bad streak occurred at the sports that i'm usually good. That's July and August, September i had a very rough start at pretty much everything and all the hell broke loose. The solution is simple first and the easiest take off half of July and august and secondly be better prepared if you gonna tackle new concepts. September was just a bad month  and i believe the same was April. Imo there is no point at adjusting the stakes it is either you have an edge or you don't (you have to money manage of course, i'm not that good on that concept tbh either)
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sevvvvv
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« Reply #11 on: January 08, 2017, 12:34:51 AM »

3500 bets is not much on 13 months, you should aim for more volume.

how often are you beating pinnie closing line? thats the most important metric to your long term EV.
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raizzak
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« Reply #12 on: January 08, 2017, 08:32:12 PM »

i have only one question to you. Do you have a feel how much you have to work for 5000 bets per year (let aside 10000)?
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betahead
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« Reply #13 on: January 09, 2017, 09:00:15 AM »

3500 bets is not much on 13 months, you should aim for more volume.

how often are you beating pinnie closing line? thats the most important metric to your long term EV.

It's not a matter of how often, but of how much!
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