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Where the odds originate?

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Author Topic: Where the odds originate?  (Read 4075 times)

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« on: December 14, 2011, 09:43:28 AM »

I covered this issue in the old web site, but it seems that this question is still in the air.
The first bookmakers that compile odds, are the underground from far east. No need to mention all the names, but singbet, crown888, and clones are the first to air odds.
For example, Saturday's EPL's games will be up on Monday noon (depending where you live). They have very accurate odds compilers, and a mistake is a rare phenomenon for them. However, they are not Gods, and some mistakes will appear.
During the week, the majority of the bookmakers will offer lines, but firstly, they will take a look in China, so they will be in line. Last but not least, Bodog, will offer its lines on Friday.
There are several factors that make a line move. Briefly:
Tipsters, and tipping companies from the far east.
Inside info.
A small player will not move a line. These people with huge bankrolls, and willing to bet millions per game will be key factors. Imagine someone who wants to bet 1 mn in a game. Even Betfair will not be strong enough, and odds will fall. For example, a 1 mn bet in 1.73, of EPL, will move the line to 1.67-69. This guy is not stupid and he wants the best odds available. Traders and middlemen like AsianConnect is a great solution for them. They give the order, and their bet is splitted to a number of bookmakers, sbobet, 188bet, pinnacle, stsbet, etc. These traders have leveraged accounts, so if a player like me has a limit of 20k per bet, they have a limit of 100k.
This mass of bets will create a dropping odds, that alert services will present it to the arbing community.
There are also some players (and some arbusers also) that create a line move, working as a syndicate, and placing large bets in order to create this move. Then, the mass of arbers bonus abusers and trend followers will try to get to the train, enlarging the move. Then, the syndicates are placing the opposite outcome.
Finally, the mass of pure square bettors will make a great line move. Just notice the Liverpool's odds dropping 15-20 minutes before kick off. Millions of 10-20 euro bets.
Feel free to comment and share your experiences.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2011, 10:27:43 AM by Arbusers » Logged


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« Reply #1 on: December 14, 2011, 04:12:32 PM »

Still very interesting how the markets work.

I'm going out for drinks with an AsianConnect employee, when I go on vacation in Jan. Maybe he will tell me some interesting information :)

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« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2011, 01:26:07 AM »

generally odds originate from the bookmakers opinion about possibilities
if an outcome has a possibility 40% to happen then 100/40 gives us 2.5 odds
depending on the bookmakers reduction to tht price we may have a 2.2-2.4 price
but generally the wrong perception about some factors makes false possibilities and wrong odds


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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2011, 03:01:54 PM »

very interesting topic.

As soccer odds start from Asia, the american sports odds originate from the biggest traders of Las Vegas casinos.
Then, pinnaclesports and other american bookmakers copy the lines and the show goes on.


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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2011, 07:18:19 AM »

Interesting. It's similar to the financial markets : value is the result of the perception of it by different actors. And whoever has big money can move the lines/markets.


« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2012, 04:13:00 PM »

I think this topic deserves a good bump. I am also very interested to knowing more on this topic.
Anyone that has information is welcome to share it!


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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2013, 09:06:18 AM »

in my knowledge, bookies set the odds according to the statistical analysis and calculations.. for example total goals in a soccer game is very likely poisson distributed.

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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2013, 12:01:40 AM »

There is an interesting interview from one of Pinnacle's traders about the whole process and on how the use the information they get from the sharp players to their advantage.



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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2014, 11:58:36 AM »

In china we gamble the soccer match by asian odds, the result could be : half win; total win;none win non lose ;;half lose;total lose . the asian odds offered by the bookmakers in hongkong; macao;malaysia...

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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2014, 12:11:11 PM »

What could be the explaination about this case:

Bristol Academy Women - Raheny United Women
AH1 -3 @ 2.1
AH2 +3.5 @ 2.28

7% arb in an not important match.

Lucky me, I was able to bet there a nice amount so it made my day, but I would like to know better about this  kind of situations.

This is what I googled: http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vixens-encouraged-finish-European-tie/story-23195549-detail/story.html

Happy arbing!

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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2014, 01:06:27 PM »

lots of good action on women uefa matches today

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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2014, 09:23:47 PM »

for example milan-inter 1  2.3   x 3.3    2  2.8 on pinancle and some other/local bookie odds are similar

on local bookie there is a lot more bets on inter to win and odds don't move .....now on pinnacle  odds on milan start to drop....will local bookie follow pinnacle despite the fact that there is more bets on inter to win?does this situations happen?


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