Arb profit calcul

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valdil
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valdil

Arb profit calcul
« on: February 21, 2017, 12:53:04 PM »

Hi,

I'm looking to register to bet burger but before I want to understand the interface and how they are calculating the values.

For a standard 1x2 arb, I understand the profit calculation but I don't understand how they can have a profit of 1.00% with these odds:

TO(0.75): 1.78
TU(1.5): 1.41
TU(0.5): 2.88

Second questions how they can have a profit of 0.34% with a middle value(I don't really understand the meaning of this value) at 0.50 with this odds:

TO(147.5): 1.93
TU(148): 2.09

Thanks for your help.
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arber_PL
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arber_PL

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2017, 02:18:27 PM »

In first case look at amounts you have to bet.
In second case it's 0,5 point middle - you could have one bet won and one voided if game ends with 148.
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Gamblers Ruin
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Gamblers Ruin

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2017, 02:31:53 PM »

I think the missing link is the way the fractions work.
Putting 100 onto over 0.75 is actually putting 50 on over 0.5 (wins on 1+, loses on 0) and 50 on over 1.0 (wins on 2+, loses on 0, returns stake on 1)

In case one, betting £48.26, £100, £27.66 on those options will return £178 for each outcome, against £175.92 placed - 1.2%

(but please don't actually place those values :)))
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valdil
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valdil

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2017, 04:00:48 PM »

Thanks for the response but I don't understand how you can find "£48.26, £100, £27.66" ? With the odds 1.78, 1.41, 2.88

Because the formula is(for 100$):

100 / (1 + 1.78/1.41 + 1.78/2.88)    to find the amount on TO(0.75)

And so the profit is equal to the difference between the amount to bet on each odd and the the returns


What I don't understand it's why the standard formulas to find surebet does not work to determine the profit(1/odd1+1/odd2+1/odd3)... it's really confusing for me :(


Thanks,
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 05:26:53 PM by valdil » Logged
arber_PL
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arber_PL

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #4 on: February 22, 2017, 07:44:48 AM »

Because these bets are not separate and you can win more than one. Maths is important.
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valdil
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valdil

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #5 on: February 22, 2017, 05:25:49 PM »

yes for sure maths is important, the problem is to understand the difference, not to perform a fraction.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2017, 06:05:29 PM »

The difference comes from the fact that if there were to be exactly 1 goal in this game, you would only win half of the Over 0.75 bet and not the complete bet.  Obviously that changes the calculations.
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valdil
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valdil

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #7 on: February 23, 2017, 04:18:12 PM »

And can you give me: "Obviously that changes the calculations." To can understand how you determine the value?
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ppintaluba
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ppintaluba

Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #8 on: February 23, 2017, 06:13:55 PM »

Well. It's not that easy as 1/odds + 1/odds + 1/odds. This only works for independent outcomes.
The math for other arbs (not independent) is more complex and you definitely don't need to understand it to decide if you will subscribe or not to betburger. You can test the amounts suggested by Betburger with different results to check if they work.

In the case you mentioned:

TO(0.75): 1.78
TU(1.5): 1.41
TU(0.5): 2.88

The logic is (S is stake, O is odds):

a) 0 goals (win second and third bets): S2 x O2  +  S3 x O3 >= S1 + S2 + S3
b) 1 goal (half win first bet, win second bet): S1/2 * (O1+1)  +  S2 x O2 >= S1 + S2 + S3
c) 2 goals or more (win first bet): S1 x O1 >= S1 + S2 + S3

Even if you don´t know the exact formula, you can build an Excel, place some of these formulas and play with stakes until you get the same result on all outcomes

             Stake         Odds       0 goals         1 goal            2 or more goals
O 0,75  200,00      1,78       L       0,00    HW   278,00     W   356,00   
U 1.5      55,50      1,41       W    78,26    W       78,26      L        0,00   
U 0.5      96,50      2,88       W   277,92    L         0,00      L        0,00   
            352,00                        356,18          356,26           356,00   
                              
Formulas to calculate each result are the ones on the left of each equation (a, b and c)

 
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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Arb profit calcul
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2017, 09:30:12 AM »

(sorry, posted my stakes the wrong way around, should have been 100,27.66,48.26)

I know that's not very helpful, forgot I sorted them when I plugged into my calculator
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