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Arb profit calcul

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valdil
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Arb profit calcul

Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:53 pm

Hi,

I'm looking to register to bet burger but before I want to understand the interface and how they are calculating the values.

For a standard 1x2 arb, I understand the profit calculation but I don't understand how they can have a profit of 1.00% with these odds:

TO(0.75): 1.78
TU(1.5): 1.41
TU(0.5): 2.88

Second questions how they can have a profit of 0.34% with a middle value(I don't really understand the meaning of this value) at 0.50 with this odds:

TO(147.5): 1.93
TU(148): 2.09

Thanks for your help.
arber_PL
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:18 pm

In first case look at amounts you have to bet.
In second case it's 0,5 point middle - you could have one bet won and one voided if game ends with 148.
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:31 pm

I think the missing link is the way the fractions work.
Putting 100 onto over 0.75 is actually putting 50 on over 0.5 (wins on 1+, loses on 0) and 50 on over 1.0 (wins on 2+, loses on 0, returns stake on 1)

In case one, betting £48.26, £100, £27.66 on those options will return £178 for each outcome, against £175.92 placed - 1.2%

(but please don't actually place those values :)))
Win->bet more->lose->bet same-> bankrupt
valdil
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:00 pm

Thanks for the response but I don't understand how you can find "£48.26, £100, £27.66" ? With the odds 1.78, 1.41, 2.88

Because the formula is(for 100$):

100 / (1 + 1.78/1.41 + 1.78/2.88)    to find the amount on TO(0.75)

And so the profit is equal to the difference between the amount to bet on each odd and the the returns


What I don't understand it's why the standard formulas to find surebet does not work to determine the profit(1/odd1+1/odd2+1/odd3)... it's really confusing for me :(


Thanks,
Last edited by valdil on Tue Feb 21, 2017 5:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
arber_PL
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:44 am

Because these bets are not separate and you can win more than one. Maths is important.
valdil
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Wed Feb 22, 2017 5:25 pm

yes for sure maths is important, the problem is to understand the difference, not to perform a fraction.
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Wed Feb 22, 2017 6:05 pm

The difference comes from the fact that if there were to be exactly 1 goal in this game, you would only win half of the Over 0.75 bet and not the complete bet.  Obviously that changes the calculations.
valdil
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Thu Feb 23, 2017 4:18 pm

And can you give me: "Obviously that changes the calculations." To can understand how you determine the value?
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Thu Feb 23, 2017 6:13 pm

Well. It's not that easy as 1/odds + 1/odds + 1/odds. This only works for independent outcomes.
The math for other arbs (not independent) is more complex and you definitely don't need to understand it to decide if you will subscribe or not to betburger. You can test the amounts suggested by Betburger with different results to check if they work.

In the case you mentioned:

TO(0.75): 1.78
TU(1.5): 1.41
TU(0.5): 2.88

The logic is (S is stake, O is odds):

a) 0 goals (win second and third bets): S2 x O2  +  S3 x O3 >= S1 + S2 + S3
b) 1 goal (half win first bet, win second bet): S1/2 * (O1+1)  +  S2 x O2 >= S1 + S2 + S3
c) 2 goals or more (win first bet): S1 x O1 >= S1 + S2 + S3

Even if you don´t know the exact formula, you can build an Excel, place some of these formulas and play with stakes until you get the same result on all outcomes

            Stake        Odds      0 goals        1 goal            2 or more goals
O 0,75  200,00      1,78      L      0,00    HW  278,00    W  356,00
U 1.5      55,50      1,41      W    78,26    W      78,26      L        0,00
U 0.5      96,50      2,88      W  277,92    L        0,00      L        0,00
            352,00                        356,18          356,26          356,00

Formulas to calculate each result are the ones on the left of each equation (a, b and c)
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Re: Arb profit calcul

Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:30 am

(sorry, posted my stakes the wrong way around, should have been 100,27.66,48.26)

I know that's not very helpful, forgot I sorted them when I plugged into my calculator
Win->bet more->lose->bet same-> bankrupt

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