Value explanation

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Micko
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Micko

Value explanation
« on: March 12, 2017, 04:13:56 AM »

Hello to all.

I have question about value and how to recognize it. Just want to know am i right or wrong.

1st quarter market over/under bet365 1.83/1.83 so 50/50. asian bookie over 2.05

Is there value at asian bookie odds?
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Arbusers
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2017, 08:00:05 AM »

2.05 has a better value compared to 1.83, but this is no guarantee that you will be a winner in the long run.
You need to compare more bookmakers and not only 2. Asian bookmakers and the rest of he basebooks reflect real odds and possibilities. Value should be in the soft bookmakers side when the odds offered are higher compared to basebooks. These are some general guidelines, you need to search some more in the forum for more details.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2017, 08:44:52 AM »

Hello to all.

I have question about value and how to recognize it. Just want to know am i right or wrong.

1st quarter market over/under bet365 1.83/1.83 so 50/50. asian bookie over 2.05

Is there value at asian bookie odds?

What arbusers said.  Ask yourself this to go with your example and forget about the Asian bookie:  If there's a local bookie offering the 1st quarter market over/uder at 1.7/1.7, would you also say there's value in those bet365 odds of 1.83?

You should compare the Pinnacle and Betfair price with the price of your soft bookie, if the soft is higher that odd has value.  This is no guarantee to make profit though, as the value needs to be high enough to beat the bookie margin. 

It also depends on the time and market you look at.  You can find a lot of value in an odd for a game that only starts a week from now...but that doesn't mean the value will still be there once the game starts as the odds can drift and you should know that the closing odd comes closest to reflecting the actual probability of that event happening. 

Another thing is the market size, in a small youth league you should know Betfair and Pinnacle don't take enough volume to have an efficient price so you don't know if that price reflects the actual probability of each outcome...

So in short, to find value you have to:

- Always check your soft bookie price compared to Pinnacle and Betfair (or other asian bookmakers)
- Make sure you still have value as close to the starting time of the game as possible
- Make sure the market you bet in is big enough so the Pinnacle and Betfair prices you were comparing to, are efficient enough and have enough volume to reflect the actual price/probability of the outcome they represent.

If you follow those guidelines, you should make profit over time by betting value odds only.  It's easier said than done though.  :)
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maletaja
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2017, 09:07:56 AM »

In my opinion there are 2 layers of value bets. First layer is compering other bookies and if u will get best odds you should get mathematical edge u create your own juice
But there are 2 layer-true value more event specific. Market could be wrong and you have your own models or AI. Then you should beat pinnacle
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Arbusers
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2017, 09:21:12 AM »

To my eyes, there is only one layer. Beating pinnacle and the other asian style bookmakers. I would say that SBObet might be an even better criterion for football and favourite odds.
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2017, 03:32:51 PM »

My theory on this and probably I'm far off.

Example:
Team A - 9th
Team B - 16th

Odds for Team A
sbobet 2.09
pinnacle 2.18
betfair 2.22
bet365 2.0
william - 2.05
unibet - 2.02

Team A is in form, but Team B(16th) is around 1.8.
Do the bookies know something that the form doesn't suggest?
Only advantage is that 16th team is at home.

So which one is the value bet? The public seem to believe that the 16th team will win.
Initially I believe sportsradar creates a starting odd value utilizing past statistics.
These odds then go up/down based on news and fed into the program.
The bookies are all utilising these statistics.

Then the market drives the price, it usually drops in value. Pinnacle and betfair adjust the price based on the market. Which in turn effects the rest of the market.

Initally the graph shows that team 9th was around 1.8x


In my opinion, its difficult to know if this is a value bet.
Is their something that the public knows that changes the market.
Or has someone made a mistake?


Perhaps value can only be truly determined by fully analyzing a match
- Current form
- Squad changes
- Public News
- Tiredness
- Team Need
- Referee
- Home/away form

Then comparing the starting odds against the current odds.

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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2017, 07:17:35 PM »

In the end the public were correct for that above example.
- but it could have gone either way
-> The side at 1.80 were sitting 16th but were more hungry and more determined.
They came away with the win. 
If the match was a value bet, it would have lost. Lucky for me it was an arb.
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qbet
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2017, 11:18:19 AM »

In the end the public were correct for that above example.
- but it could have gone either way
-> The side at 1.80 were sitting 16th but were more hungry and more determined.
They came away with the win. 
If the match was a value bet, it would have lost. Lucky for me it was an arb.

Just because the bet won doesn't mean " the public was right ".
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sevvvvv
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2017, 03:07:01 PM »

pinnacle reflects 99% true odds,highest liquidity attracts the sharpest bettors,even bookies have accounts there,more information,so if you beat their closing line with 2%juice included, you have a value bet.

its like having a coin toss and losing 50 on heads but getting paid 52 on tails. Nothing guarantee you will be on profit after 10 tosses,not even 100,but 1000 most surely.
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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2017, 10:29:13 AM »

its like having a coin toss and losing 50 on heads but getting paid 52 on tails. Nothing guarantee you will be on profit after 10 tosses,not even 100,but 1000 most surely.
For 1,000 I make it 72.6% chance of profit.
For 10,000 it's 97.6%
Good theory though.

EDIT: updated from 70.4% and 97.4%
« Last Edit: March 14, 2017, 03:20:51 PM by Gamblers Ruin » Logged

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sevvvvv
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sevvvvv

Re: Value explanation
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2017, 02:49:27 PM »

its like having a coin toss and losing 50 on heads but getting paid 52 on tails. Nothing guarantee you will be on profit after 10 tosses,not even 100,but 1000 most surely.
For 1,000 I make it 70.4% chance of profit.
For 10,000 it's 97.4%
Good theory though.

How did you get those % values? What calculation you use
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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2017, 03:25:54 PM »

How did you get those % values? What calculation you use
You need 491 wins from 1,000 tosses or 4,902 from 10,000 for a profit.
It's a binomial distribution, so we need to do:
1-Σ(i = 1 to 490) (1000-choose-i)*(0.5^1000) and 1-Σ(i = 1 to 4901) (10000-choose-i)*(0.5^10000)
I approximated to normal, but I now see that Excel has the handy BINOM.DIST function, which looks more accurate, so I have corrected my above post.
=1-BINOM.DIST(490,1000,0.5,TRUE)
=1-BINOM.DIST(4901,10000,0.5,TRUE)
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showMeDaMoney
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2017, 04:35:30 PM »

Interesting calculations...

Here is a more simpler way to explain value bets
--> http://www.championbets.com.au/blog/horse-racing/mastering-the-maths/
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Gamblers Ruin
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Re: Value explanation
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2017, 05:37:44 PM »

Interesting calculations...

Here is a more simpler way to explain value bets
--> http://www.championbets.com.au/blog/horse-racing/mastering-the-maths/

...that's awful. They ignore the bookie's margin, which makes half the stuff they say a lie (e.g. Phar Lap will NOT win 40%). This is a noob trap...
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sevvvvv
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sevvvvv

Re: Value explanation
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2017, 11:39:22 PM »

Take this example, this is how you calculate your edge on a value bet:

Team A to win (1 hour max before kick-off as fluctuations on pinnie are less expected and your edge should remain positive )
Pinnacle @ 2.20
Bookie X @ 2.30

Pinnacle has a 2% margin, so the real vig-free odds at pinnacle are 2,20 x 1,02 = 2,244

Now you calculate your edge based on Bookie X odd.

Edge=[(2.30/2.244)-1]x100=2,49%
« Last Edit: March 16, 2017, 12:07:08 AM by sevvvvv » Logged
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