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Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
ludako
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:05 am

Amazing project, congratulations.

In the Value Miner, why don't you create a filter "Strategies with over [input] % winning rate" ? It will pick the best from all possible strategies.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:29 am

Another question. What stake plan are you using to calculate profits?
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:28 pm

What I wrote about a winning strategy in the past not ensuring winning in the future is that the strategy can be a winning one, because the software takes the best closing odds. If you cannot bet the best closing odds (this is not easy) then the strategy can work, but you fail anyway. Maybe betting close to kick off and comparing available odds at the moment works.
Should it make even in long term?Closing odds could you go your favour or not same probability
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:03 pm

ludako wrote: Amazing project, congratulations.

In the Value Miner, why don't you create a filter "Strategies with over [input] % winning rate" ? It will pick the best from all possible strategies.
Thanks for the good words, we hope we can make the users happy with it.
We have plenty of good ideas regarding what new filters we should apply, we also get good ideas from users, which we will implement.
You will find these new developments on O4S gradually.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:41 pm

ppintaluba wrote: Another question. What stake plan are you using to calculate profits?
We are using fixed 1 stakes for the calculations.
Last edited by O4S on Fri Mar 24, 2017 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:42 pm

Hello,

just tried it today, the data is interesting but there is definitely a need for a filter for bookmakers, because if you tell me X strategy is profitable but 80% of bets are taken at marathon or williamhill it doesn't tell me much as those bookies are known for being soft.

I think the tutorials were not very good, 2 examples based on teams, i think this kind of info is not very reliable as i cannot trust anything over a sample under a 100 and even if i have 1000 + matches sample on team, such a long time has elapsed that the team won't look anything like 10 years ago. So i think any strategy involving a particular team is not reliable.

If there are some profitables strategies with a sample size over 500 matches and with soft bookies discarded, that would be interesting.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:32 pm

Post above says it all. Until this is available all this is just pure marketing and good luck to all of you who will use closing lines from BetVic or Marathon as relevant ones for your betting strategy.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:04 pm

SticyBandit wrote: Post above says it all. Until this is available all this is just pure marketing and good luck to all of you who will use closing lines from BetVic or Marathon as relevant ones for your betting strategy.
You are partially correct. I believe that Bwin and Marathon odds are only smoke screens puzzling people and probably leading to wrong conclusions. But...
I currently run 2 strategies, carefully selected where Pinnacle, SBObet and Matchbook represents 85% of the odds. Even like this, with the addition of Betfair and Smarkets odds based on basebooks are 90%+. I understand that the remaining 10% is bringing my stats down, but, the overall performance is allowing me to accept this drop.
I m searching for 3 more strategies with my criteria and desirable performance, because a bigger number of strategies is giving me the luxury to have 1 or 2 losing strategies out of 5. Bigger samples are decisive factors in value betting.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:15 pm

Bigger samples are everything as Makelele correctly spotted, but we have to put another factor on the table. This is time. If your strategies are forcing you to stay many hours in front of the pc, then maybe it doesn't worth your time.
One out of many of my criteria is the programme of kick off for those specific strategies. I understand that championships with out a stable programme, (i.e Greece, Spain) are not included in my criteria. EPL is much better as we all know the time of kick off for the vast majority of games. 5-10 minutes per week are enough to place your bets and that would be a perfect incremental cost-effectiveness ratio provided that your strategies are working and producing money.
FYI, EPL is not included in my strategies.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:04 am

If you are doing stats, 500 matches is still not enough, yes if you found 15 % yield on odds not higher than 3.0, but this is impossible on football.
If your stats includes 1000 matches on odds 3.0 (lets say draw in football) and you have yield od 5 % you can be pretty sure that this is not even close to put a conclusion that this is something that will give you profit in the future. And to make assumption that some strategy only because it has 5 % yield in last 6 years deserves to be played is very dangerous.
In those promo video funny things are being represented, for example choosing some team in last 5 years and their home performances. Ok, Really??
So be careful when you find something that has not enough matches in database and you are not sure how odds were collected.
To be able to browse database and found some style of play that could get you a profit in future it is extremely important that those collected odds were collected in the same way, for example closing odds on Asian bookies. If you mix opened and closed lines, you have no information. Again, if you mix random bookies with their closing lines and get some average or max odds, you are again without valid information. Mixing odds from Bwin and Pinn to give you Average or Max from those two is useless.
I made big database for several sports years ago, but haven't updated it with recent years data. My data are going back to 2001. I see that here starts only in 2009.  And I can tell you one thing. Things are changing, leagues are having different numbers year by year. Be extremely careful how you interpret those stats. Looking into pure numbers is not enough, those numbers must have some reason why are they like that and if you can back up those numbers with some facts you know about that market only then you are on the right path. In the end I am very surprised that no one had put such database on the market years ago and polished it.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:19 am

I have looked at program also and have same concerns like other guys,it should have option to include only sharps because there is no sense that i have odds from soft books and maybe this 5% value was only from their side and bigger database is must.
This is very interesting project and have good future but bigger database and only sharp bookies is must.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:36 am

makelele wrote: Hello,

just tried it today, the data is interesting but there is definitely a need for a filter for bookmakers, because if you tell me X strategy is profitable but 80% of bets are taken at marathon or williamhill it doesn't tell me much as those bookies are known for being soft.

I think the tutorials were not very good, 2 examples based on teams, i think this kind of info is not very reliable as i cannot trust anything over a sample under a 100 and even if i have 1000 + matches sample on team, such a long time has elapsed that the team won't look anything like 10 years ago. So i think any strategy involving a particular team is not reliable.

If there are some profitables strategies with a sample size over 500 matches and with soft bookies discarded, that would be interesting.
Hello,

Thanks for your thoughts.
The bookmaker filtering is under development and its nearly finished.
The videos are just a guide and shows how easy to use ValueMiner.
You are right, bigger the database means more accurate predictions.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:48 am

Arbusers wrote: Bigger samples are everything as Makelele correctly spotted, but we have to put another factor on the table. This is time. If your strategies are forcing you to stay many hours in front of the pc, then maybe it doesn't worth your time.
One out of many of my criteria is the programme of kick off for those specific strategies. I understand that championships with out a stable programme, (i.e Greece, Spain) are not included in my criteria. EPL is much better as we all know the time of kick off for the vast majority of games. 5-10 minutes per week are enough to place your bets and that would be a perfect incremental cost-effectiveness ratio provided that your strategies are working and producing money.
FYI, EPL is not included in my strategies.
Thank you for your thoughts and we agree that everyone should have the goal that their work invested into the database recover reaching the more optimal ICER.
Everyone wants that, so that be the goal for us. But we have to admit, it requires work. There is where O4S saves a lot of time.
Last edited by O4S on Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 11:56 am

kapetan1122 wrote: I have looked at program also and have same concerns like other guys,it should have option to include only sharps because there is no sense that i have odds from soft books and maybe this 5% value was only from their side and bigger database is must.
This is very interesting project and have good future but bigger database and only sharp bookies is must.
Hello,

Thanks for the test and for your answers.
What do you think? Can we help the users with ValueMiner?
This is a question what we will ask very often, we are sure.
We believe that we give information that no one has been given before us, and that is very important.
We are surprised you would like a larger database, could you explain what you mean?
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Re: Odds4Stats (O4S) new value betting service

Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:29 pm

SticyBandit wrote: If you are doing stats, 500 matches is still not enough, yes if you found 15 % yield on odds not higher than 3.0, but this is impossible on football.
If your stats includes 1000 matches on odds 3.0 (lets say draw in football) and you have yield od 5 % you can be pretty sure that this is not even close to put a conclusion that this is something that will give you profit in the future. And to make assumption that some strategy only because it has 5 % yield in last 6 years deserves to be played is very dangerous.
In those promo video funny things are being represented, for example choosing some team in last 5 years and their home performances. Ok, Really??
So be careful when you find something that has not enough matches in database and you are not sure how odds were collected.
To be able to browse database and found some style of play that could get you a profit in future it is extremely important that those collected odds were collected in the same way, for example closing odds on Asian bookies. If you mix opened and closed lines, you have no information. Again, if you mix random bookies with their closing lines and get some average or max odds, you are again without valid information. Mixing odds from Bwin and Pinn to give you Average or Max from those two is useless.
I made big database for several sports years ago, but haven't updated it with recent years data. My data are going back to 2001. I see that here starts only in 2009.  And I can tell you one thing. Things are changing, leagues are having different numbers year by year. Be extremely careful how you interpret those stats. Looking into pure numbers is not enough, those numbers must have some reason why are they like that and if you can back up those numbers with some facts you know about that market only then you are on the right path. In the end I am very surprised that no one had put such database on the market years ago and polished it.
Thank you for your thoughts! We definitely think it's very positive and helpful that users who have experience in using statistical database are sharing their thoughts.

You should know that there are several reasons why ODDS4STATS started operation on Arbusers. The most important is that many professionals (as you) are present here who have vast experience and many of them has their own software too. This is important for us ODDS4STATS's because like this we can illustrate better where we are going with this unique service.

Stop here for a bit with this unique service. My first question would be immediately, what is the best way to help the users with Value Miner? This is a question what we will ask very often, we are sure. We believe that we give information that no one has been given before us, and that is very important.

Yes, I accept that over 15% of the profit with odds above 3.00 carries a huge threat. Moreover I have a suggestion: start bet against it because that also a strategy and it even works great.

About the How It Works tutorial videos: We are glad you think that it's a good advertising strategy, however we made them because these videos clearly illustrate the opportunities within Value Miner. Certainly these videos with high payout and sum profit are about how to make profit because this is what is really important for users and I guess for you as well.

Juventus performances at home is only one example out of the million as said in the video. There are much more interesting things in Value Miner. In the Spanish La Liga there is a team which has 140.30% if we take all of their home games in the last 5 years. And why? Not because mathematics or statistics, simple because they can beat anyone at home.

Regarding closing odds, it bears repeating: they prevail, they give the most accurate prognosis. We could have start it with opening odds or any other, but we think closing odds are the most useful. Obviously, you never have to wait for the closing odds, it's an indication to create a strategy, and it's appropriate.

About the bookmakers in few words: There's no question, we will add the bookie filtering option to help the users, so anyone can filter between bookies as they like. However, what is even more interesting is that a good strategy is "above" the bookmakers, you no longer need to bet on the highest value, because the best value is the one that wins. :) Obviously, this is a trading, and the opportunity is given for everyone to get the best price on the market, and we also recommend it.

A few sentence about using the database. You wrote about collecting data since 2001. That is very nice and unique! Could you tell us how it helps you collecting these kind of old data?
We put the 3-5 years filter option intentionally into Value Miner. After a lot of hard thinking we found the mathematical solution in the 5 years UEFA coefficients period, because that is the limit until it's worth to go. After this period the data can be questioned strongly from year to year in our opinion as well.

I have to highlight, later on, those who will use ODDS4STATS Forum will get professional help, but only step by step, because you surely agree with us that the proper use of a database is a big challenge, and even a separate profession.

Come join us, and we can discuss these facts. If you have such an experience in this field, we would like to ask you to share your own opinion in our forum and tell us how successful you are in using your data. Surely, many users could use your help.

Thank you for your valuable comments!
Last edited by O4S on Fri Mar 24, 2017 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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