eurovision question

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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

eurovision question
« on: May 12, 2017, 07:19:46 PM »

Hi, i trade some amounts at eurovision but some of the bets not matched and odds are too against me right now.So because i do not have too experience on this event,anyone knows if there is too much variation at live odds?
Also as i saw when eurovision semi finals started, some books block the live odds,too bad.
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maletaja
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2017, 08:31:03 PM »

I just followed eurovision semifinals not trading at betfair.
And i was suprised somehow. Semifinals were about 12 canditates to the final (10 goes through).
And nations who suprised by not qualifing to the final. Their odds get "better" BEFORE voting

Sry im not convinced that live perfomance could change odds 1.14 to 1.4 to qualify for final!!!
And opposite way Croatia odds shortened by 2.00 to 1.4! !!!
I deny to believe, that live perfomance adds or  takes away so much. Market has seen these rehersals all over and over

Im 99% sure that someone knows smth and votes leakes, because jury votes will be taken before show

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Arbusers
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2017, 08:52:55 PM »

Hi, i trade some amounts at eurovision but some of the bets not matched and odds are too against me right now.So because i do not have too experience on this event,anyone knows if there is too much variation at live odds?
Also as i saw when eurovision semi finals started, some books block the live odds,too bad.

What are the open bets and where did you place them? You don't reveal much but depending on the se bets, you could over them in betfair during live play.
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gamblehappier
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2017, 11:01:31 PM »

i watch the odds more than 4 days carefully and i have seen terrible things.Why asians gave at first almost wrong odds?I watch the exchanges
i will give both of you an example.
italy was 1.8 and now is 3.4 ..this is very strange..

and Portugal from 6 goes to 4 then to 3 again 4.3 and finally now almost 2.7...unbelievable

Also bulgaria from 10 to 4  ;)

I believe that maybe there will be vote leaks or some first info which maybe show that portugal is the winner
Money makers move the lines but italy from 1.7 to 3.3,money makers cannot do this.Asians books made mistake

My mistake is that i bet much more than 100 to italy when it was 2 and now is 3.4.I cannot just lay the bet at this odd(3.4)

So,maletaja,arbusers the exchanges will have open oddds at live,right?Do you believe at live that 3.4 odd will drop to 2.2 or is impossible?
What will you advise me to do?I am sceptical if italy prematch will not get around 2.6(which is almost impossible) wait to live,or else i should accept a loss.


« Last Edit: May 12, 2017, 11:03:55 PM by gamblehappier » Logged
Arbusers
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2017, 06:09:33 AM »

These fluctuations of odds is making this event one of the best arbing/trading events each year.
I m arbing this event for some years now, probably more than 12, and I understand that there are no leaks of results. At least so far. This is the first year that I m not trading eurovision because of up carried obligations, but I don't see why this norm should not be there.
Now to the point. If I were to your shoes I would leave Italy's bet as it is without laying it. It was a mistake from the very start to back it at low odds. I understand that this could be a loss of 100 euros for you, but you could take it as a lesson. On the other hand, if Italy wins, you go to the cashier.
Good luck.
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: eurovision question
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2017, 07:29:12 AM »

I have backed Italy too and i dont do nothing. They still can be winning all.Portugal was just dark horse.
Bad thing is i dont catch odds movement. Software doesnt cover eurovision events
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: eurovision question
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2017, 12:18:22 PM »

I have discovered that dropping odds never lie about eurovision. In that theory Portugal should be clear winner
In this case jury votes defenately leaking (50% competition votes) to move odds
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: eurovision question
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2017, 12:24:06 PM »

Youtube


Portugal 1,250,000
Belgium 775,000 more likely to wet herself onstage than win, surely? If she had any charisma at all, she would have a chance as the song is half OK
Moldova 600,000
Italy 435,000
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ilovethisforum
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2017, 02:29:07 PM »

Youtube


Portugal 1,250,000
Belgium 775,000 more likely to wet herself onstage than win, surely? If she had any charisma at all, she would have a chance as the song is half OK
Moldova 600,000
Italy 435,000

Maybe you are referring to other videos but the officials is not like this.Belgium has 4 million views.
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Arbusers
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2017, 02:36:56 PM »

There must be important reasons for these 4 mn views.  :)
I don't think that youtube views are showing the winner.
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ilovethisforum
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2017, 02:59:19 PM »

There must be important reasons for these 4 mn views.  :)
I don't think that youtube views are showing the winner.

I don't believe it either,i just wanted to mention that the youtube views for Belgium was wrong. :)
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maletaja
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maletaja

Re: eurovision question
« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2017, 09:39:06 PM »

nice movements...Italy6.2...and 10 before voting...
« Last Edit: May 13, 2017, 10:21:55 PM by maletaja » Logged
gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: eurovision question
« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2017, 10:48:03 PM »

I Cannot really understand why the odds of italy were so low at first,cannot even compete bulgaria and portugal now..And belgium appeared suddenly from 24 odd.
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Arbusers
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #13 on: May 14, 2017, 06:32:40 AM »

Italy was overpriced for a reason.
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Arbusers
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Re: eurovision question
« Reply #14 on: May 14, 2017, 08:59:00 AM »

IMO that was the worse contest I can remember, and I remember many contests.
Not only most songs could be categorised as crap. The contest was cheaply organised. Gambling volumes were not at the same amount as before. Probably softbooks reduced their exposure to the event.
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