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I need help understanding value betting

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
showMeDaMoney
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:17 pm

I was monitoring matches were the edge had gone, i.e dropped.
Dont worry I didn't place any bets

->  https://pste.eu/p/Vbi3.html
Would have had a loss of 10% loss in bankroll, thats why always important to have an edge!

Next, I'm working on a paper trail of 1000 bets using 30% kelly that have an edge to see what will happen to make bank account.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:31 pm

You still don't get it...if your odd was 2.05 in the soft it does not mean the probability is 51%.  The soft odd has nothing to do with probability.

Reread the thread again.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:07 pm

Yes I know that, the probability is determined by the odds at pinnacle lean.

I only added the probability data, so that I could use a bankroll, that used Kelly.
I just wanted to collect some data to see what would happen if I had some edge bets, but the edge dropped.
Thats all for the moment.

It looks like, not having EDGE was very unlucky and costly over the long run.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:12 pm

I didnt have the pinnacle lean at the time, because I'm using some software atm and I didnt cross reference pinnacle.
But the automated software informed me that the EDGE had gone.

Thats all.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:00 pm

You still don't get it...but let me give you a hint: Pinnacle lean has nothing to do with it.  It's the closing odds.

You can use oddsportal to check the closing odds for those games.

Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.

Oh, and if you bet on Gamba Osaka VS Kawasaki and had a draw no bet...you should have gotten a void because it was a draw (1-1), not a loss.  You had the sandvikens vs Nykopins and that game result reversed.

Last post for me in this thread, it's pointless.  :)
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:29 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: Also: a lot of the odds in your list were NEVER above Pinnacle so I have no clue what you are doing...if that software told you those were valuebets at the time you should throw it out with the garbage right now.
Yep like mentioned above  the EDGE dropped, these were not Value Bets, they were at some point but the Edge dropped.
I just wanted to demonstrate that.

Don't worry, I fully understand this concept
#################################################
(value bet  = Pinnacle Closing Odd < Soft Odd Chosen)
or
(value bet = SBO Odd/Betfair < Soft Odd Chosen)

If Pinnacle Closing Odd > Greater than soft, then there is no value.

#################################################
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:33 pm

No the software is not garbage, I've gone through most of the bets and at least 75% are getting the EDGE correct most of the time.
But the developer did mention to me that there is a technical glitch at the moment.

So good work on noticing that.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:00 pm

My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.
Last edited by showMeDaMoney on Sat Jul 01, 2017 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:39 am

keep us updated and tell us after 1000 bets - that also is far too little imho but gives a first idea ;-)
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:37 am

showMeDaMoney wrote: - 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.
showMeDaMoney wrote: I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided
Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

Good job :)
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:38 am

showMeDaMoney wrote: - 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
What do you mean with Kelly loses without a max bet? Imo you should not follow Kelly 100% as it is too aggressive, but it is obviously a good idea to use higher stakes for better valuebets.
showMeDaMoney wrote: I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided
Of course it is not stressful as long as you are winning. At some point you will hit a losing streak. My worst losing streak to date was a loss of nearly 1/3 of my bankroll.

How much did you beat the Pinnacle closing lines?

Good job :)
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:14 pm

showMeDaMoney wrote: My Testing

- 1 solid week of bets
- 100 bets
- 1% of Bank roll and flat stake for each bet (Kelly loses without a max bet)
- Only major events, no little leagues, juniors
- Bets that only have an edge
- Proper bets with bookmaker at those odds, not fantasy paper bets.
- Discipline

I get a 6% ROI with a profit of $560
If I multiply that by 4 weeks, $2240 for the month

An extra $2k per month on top of a salary, not bad at all...
Its not stressful either and you don't have to worry about bets being cancelled/voided

Perhaps 100 bets is not really enough, from what I understand you can easily lose money some months. But then some months you will land on top.
Thanks for sharing
How big is your bankroll for that 1 week test period?
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:31 pm

100 bets each one being 1% of bankroll, so he bet all bankroll.
If 6% roi is 560, then bankroll should be 560 * 100 / 6 (almost 10.000).
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:16 pm

Alfa1234 wrote: If you are really going to try...please, make some rules for yourself first.

- First of all: forget about smaller markets like local basketball, volleyball and ITF/challenger tournaments.  Pinnacle/Betfair do NOT have accurate odds and DO NOT reflect the true probability in these games.  You need bigger games with lots of volume.
- 2.  Set some max and minium odds you want to take.  The higher the odds you take, the bigger the variance you'll see.  If Pinnacle has odds of 7 and you find an odd of 25 somewhere, this is huge value however you can still easily lose 20bets like these in a row and end up losing a good chunk of your roll.
- 3 adjust your stake according to Kelly criterium and the odds you take.  A value bet of odds 2.5 where Pinnacle has 2.0 should have a much higher stake than a value bet where you find 4.0 and Pinnacle has 3.5.
- 4 please, don't do it unless you have a clear plan and understand all of the above like the back of your hand.  You'll end up losing a lot of money, get frustrated, will start increasing your stake to chase losses and lose a lot more money.  I know your are anxious to give it a go...but just don't.  On top of that there is nothing going on right now besides tennis.
^

First of all much appreciation for the great input in different threads and food for thoughts.

I just started with valuebetting some days ago. First I tried to start arbing, but it is to hard out of germany (5% tax at most soft books so far and fast limits as well - that makes valuebetting not easier by the way)

I started with a small bank (for testing), using Kelly 30% and rebelbetting software. I accept losses at the beginning, while building up the sample and analyse afterwards which bets were good and which bad.

Regarding the first point. The very large majority of bets in the software are in smaller markets like european local bball, hockey or smaller football leagues, NCAAB. Whats an acceptable volume at betfair or pinnacle to know, when the odds reflect the "true" probability?
If just the big 5 in football and the major US-Sports reflect the true odds, it is hard to find enough bets I guess.

I understand the point, that low stakes could move the line at pinnacle, but I guess some guys are valuebetting also on smaller leagues and markets.
Otherwise it is quite a challenge to produce xx values a day and xxxx a year.

Its quite a challenge because of the 5% tax and thats why I think about taking every valuebet the software produces atm and creat a big sample size.
Or would you say wait and take your time. Bet your 10-20 bets the week, but stick to the big markets and volumes?
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Re: I need help understanding value betting

Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:59 am

I find it difficult to overpass that lethal 5% tax from Germany no matter if Arbing or Value Betting. In the end I don't see how you can beat this extra burden.
These lower leagues and small markets should be treated with extra care as there is a big possibility that someone is manipulating the market creating a value trap for you (and others). That means these markets are not creating any value for you, but rather the opposite.
I am not saying that you should restrain your bets to the Real Madrid-Bayern Munich level, but you could find 50-60 markets fulfilling some basic criteria.
For now, I would take all Value Bets you see in your software with a small stake. After gaining confidence and filtering the markets, I would select a smaller amount of events with a bigger stake, increasing it on a week by week basis. 10-20 per week would not help you.

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